Cincinnati final preview and pick: Federer vs. Ferrer

Roger Federer is one win away from the Cincinnati title and standing in his way on Sunday is a player who has never defeated him in 15 tries. The stage is set for a showdown between veterans Federer and David Ferrer.

Roger Federer and David Ferrer will be going head-to-head for the 16th time in their careers when they battle for the Western & Southern Open title on Sunday afternoon.

Federer has won all 15 of their previous encounters, including 10 on either hard courts or indoor carpet. He is 31-4 lifetime in total sets against Ferrer. The two veterans just faced each other last week in the Toronto quarterfinals, with Federer prevailing 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. They have squared off once before in Cincinnati, where Federer survived a 2009 third-round clash 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Both at least two years into their 30s, neither man is showing any real signs of a significant decline. In fact, each player is firmly on the rise this summer. Federer is 48-9 for the season and back up to No. 3 in the world after a disappointing, injury-plagued 2013 campaign. The Swiss finished runner-up at the Rogers Cup and has recovered nicely from a long week with Cincinnati victories over Vasek Pospisil, Gael Monfils, Andy Murray, and Milos Raonic.
Fed 2
Federer needed three sets to get past Pospisil and Monfils, but Ferrer flirted with an early exit to a much greater extent. The sixth-ranked Spaniard saved two match points in a 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 7-6(4) win over Philipp Kohlschreiber before making more routine work of Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Robredo, and Julien Benneteau. Ferrer is 43-15 for the year and he has reached at least the quarterfinals in six of his last seven tournaments.

“With Roger, I (have) never beaten him,” Ferrer said after his semifinal and prior to the Federer-Raonic match. “So of course I prefer Milos. It’s normal. Anyway, tomorrow it’s one important final for me.”
Ferrer 3
Both players have improved with each match this week, so a high-quality contest can be expected. Federer will have had approximately seven fewer hours of rest since the completion of their respective semifinals, but he got off the court with lightning-quick speed against Raonic and should have plenty left in the tank. A five-time champion of this event, Federer has everything going for him in this matchup.

Pick: Federer in 2

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35 Comments on Cincinnati final preview and pick: Federer vs. Ferrer

  1. It is admirable what Fed is doing this year at 33. Even as a Rafan, I am amazed at his turnaround compared to last year. This is his 8th final of the season and it is his 4th consecutive final.

    No prizes for guessing he is picking up the title tomorrow. However I thought the same at Montecarlo and Toronoto that Tsonga or Stan would never beat him , but they did. However 15-0 H2H is too strong a stat to ignore and Ferrer does not have the power of Tsonga or Stan to impose on Fed

    Fed definitely has a strong chance at US Open

    • I am actually beginning to think Fed can get his 18th Slam at the US Open 2014. Muzza does not seem to have any fight in him anymore, Novak only turns up when Rafa’s in the draw, Rafa will be undercooked if he turns up, Wawa and Ferru lose to Fed whilst they are still in the locker-room, don’t get me started on the so-called young guns………

    • NOBODY beats David Ferrer 16 times in a row! Let’s hope anyway. There is no way Federer wins in NY. Djokovic gets to the final like every year and if he beat him on grass he definitely will beat him easier on a hard court.

      • Oooh, look who’s back……..@filter! Didn’t you say you were OFF this blog! Oh, okay……..you just flounced off in a huff, never intended to leave, you big blouse!

        Thanks to you @filter, I am now a Fedfan, well, sort of………….he’s never gonna beat Rafa again so I can afford to be generous……..

  2. It has always been unwise to write Roger off prematurely: each time he bounces back to prove he is still capable of beating almost anybody at will not named Nadal, Djokovic, or to a lesser extent Murray. My mind goes back to 2008 when many were writing his career obituaries he stormed back to win his fifth consecutive USO title.
    Although he has not made it to the final since 2009 the stars are definitely aligned for him to make a run this year.

    #WhileTheCatsAreAway

  3. Another Slam without Rafa is a depressing prospect but I really do hope he doesn’t decide to play for all the obvious reasons.

  4. ^^^^Careful ritb. We’ll be accused of becoming turncoats by joining the Federazzi. Nadline will have our guts for garters 🙁

  5. It seems whenever Rafa is out with an injury, it’s a huge boost for Fed. There’s no arguing with his results this year at the age of 33. I think he’s going to be considered one of the favorites for the USO.

    Right now Novak and Andy are just not playing well. That’s not to say that either of them can’t get into really good form at the USO. It can happen. But right now the one who is playing the best tennis is Fed.

  6. Federer may be playing the best tennis on hard courts at the moment – and have a chance of winning a slam on grass, but I can’t see how this translates to the courts at Flushing Meadows. The US Open is BRUTAL on the body, in often windy conditions which just don’t suit Federer. I would still think that both Djokovic and Murray will be playing back into form by that time…

    • @Honey,

      I actually agree with you. I think we also need to remember that results in warm up tournaments leading up to slams do not necessarily correlate with who the winner will be. I just know that the so-called experts and pundits will be on the Fed bandwagon.

      I am not counting him out, especially if Rafa doesn’t play. But I also think that Novak and Murray have a good chance to get into really good form. They aren’t playing well now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t play better at the USO. Also, Fed has had problems in best three out of five set matches. He can’t sustain a high enough level of play.

      I still think Novak would be the favorite. Murray and Fed are also in the mix.

  7. Federer wants this too badly not to find a way to extend his winning streak against Ferrer who will fight to the death as he always does. It’s possible he could take a set if he has a good serving day and overcomes his complex about Masters’ finals.

    Federer in 3 with a 1st set 1 tie break.

  8. Federer started well; went AWOL for the 2nd set; upped the level impressively for the decider.
    Daveed had been within a whisker of being only the fifth man ever to bagel Federer. The last person to do so was Rafa at RG in 2008.

    Stat courtesy of Robbie Koenig 🙂

  9. Cincy final was the first Masters 1000 final ever with both finalists over 30.

    If Rafa skips USO, Fed will take the No. 2 spot from Rafa by making the final.

    #WeakEraRevisited

    • CORRECTION: Fed would have to win the USO to pass Rafa.

      I can’t believe I’m saying this but Federer is my pick to win the USO this year. Oddsmakers are still putting Nole as the heavy favourite.

      I will be in the anyone but Fed camp which may have influenced my pick.My second favourite will be anyone but Nole. I would like to see a Muzza win.

      With Rafa out and others floundering, this is the least interested I’ve been in a major since ’09 Wimby.

      I can see Rafa skipping the rest of the year now.

      • The only reason to hurry back was the US Open. Any other tournament, he would have likely pulled out long before.

        Given that he’s not ready to compete at the USO, then this is more than a short-term niggle.

        Other than points, the fall season is not very significant and my guess is that Rafa will focus on recovery and being ready for the Australian Open including the January lead-ups.

        I would put the probability at 50% or more.

        Tennis is getting pretty dull without Rafa. It was bad in 2012 but at least we had a peaking Murray, a high level Djokovic andother guys like Delpo and Berdych at a pretty high level.

        Now everyone but Fed is flailing for one reason or another.

        Hope I’m wrong.

        #WeakEraTheSequel
        #DejaVuAllOverAgain

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