Competition for Rafael Nadal will heat up on Saturday in Buenos Aires in the form of Dominic Thiem, who will go up against the Spaniard during semifinal action. The winner may have an advantage in the title match, as No. 2 seed David Ferrer still has to complete his rain-delayed quarterfinal contest against Pablo Cuevas.
Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Argentina Open on Saturday. Their only previous showdown came in round two of the 2014 French Open, with Nadal cruising 6-2, 6-2, 6-3.
Fast forward more than a full season and Thiem is now a three-time ATP tournament champion and has climbed to No. 19 in the world. All three of the 22-year-old Austrian’s titles have come at 250-point events on outdoor clay, such as this one in Buenos Aires. Thiem is two victories away from another winner’s trophy after taking out Pablo Carreno Busta, Gastao Elias (saved one match point), and Dusan Lajovic.
Solid but unspectacular since getting a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed, Nadal ended Juan Monaco’s comeback tournament with a 6-4, 6-4 victory before scraping past Paolo Lorenzi 7-6(3), 6-2 on Friday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard is seeking a second consecutive title at the Argentina Open.
This is a huge opportunity for Thiem–even on clay–given Nadal’s relative lack of dominance at the moment. While the 14-time major champion is obviously right at home on the slow stuff, it is also the underdog’s favorite surface. It remains to be seen, though, how Thiem’s one-handed backhand will stand up to Nadal’s heavy topspin. His one-hander is flashy, but it is not as consistent as Richard Gasquet’s or as powerful as Stan Wawrinka’s. Count on this one being competitive, with Nadal ultimately wearing Thiem down in a physical baseline battle.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=9308450]
who ya got?
Thiem in 3.
Nadal has been solid this week from what I’ve seen and I’m still not convinced with Thiem yet even though its on clay, but just have a gut feeling here that Thiem takes a tight first, Nadal handles the second easily and looks in command, and then Thiem pulls it out in the third.
almost agree
I gave up on predicting Rafa’s matches this time last year 🙁
At least it’s not Friday the 13rh
?? ?
Heart says Rafa… but how often does the heart get it right when predicting tennis matches involving Rafa?
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbF8tLIUkAElgZ8.jpg
Cc’d to Benny!
To each his own dream.
You have yours and I have mine.
Except I know mine is pretend.
Do you? Or don’t you.
Pretendiness has not been unnoticed.
I no longer pick against halfa-Rafa.
Will be cheering for Rafa but match should be a close one…rafa in 3.
Rafa in three though Thiem can win this. Should be a good one.
Them can only win if halfa-Rafa plays poorly which wouldn’t be a good one.
yup…it depends on Rafa…
I agree that this match depends on Rafa. I think it’s going to be a tough one, considering how Rafa hasn’t looked that great in his first two matches against guys who weren’t able to really challenge him.
Thiem is going to come out with nothing to lose and just go for his shots. He’s got the game, but Rafa has the experience and the fitness. Rafa can wear down anyone.
I think Rafa will pull it out in 3 sets. At least I hope so, but I cannot pretend that I am not nervous about this one.
I seriously dislike spell check.
Don’t you? Or do you.
Yes, I do seriously dislike spell check!
Tough match for Rafa.
He will pummel Thiem’s backhand, we know that. The way thiem plays his backhands on the run is a bit different which allows him to hit more backhands on the run and not slice that often. But of course, if rafa’s forehand is on, he can make him run wide enough and play slices (which are pretty average) and then dictate play.
Thiem backhand grip is suited to hitting flat backhands and wonder he hits MASSIVE backhands CC and DTL. His forehand can generate sufficint spin and he has a BIG forehand inside out (could be troublesome for rafa).
If rafa keeps a check on his UE, he can control this match from the baseline.
Thiem’s got a strong first serve and a good second serve so rafa better be careful with ROS. Keeping a good length is , of course, CRUCIAL.
2 sets or 3 sets, I think Rafa will be the winner here.
So much depends on rafa’s forehand. He will go for forehands DTL and I hope he misses very few.
Go Rafa!
vamosrafa,
I like your analysis. Rafa’s forehand needs to be on for this match. It makes so much difference when he can get the length and penetration on his signature shot.
However, Thiem is very talented and will come out with no nerves and no fear. I have said before that players do not fear Rafa anymore. He’s lost that aura of invincibility. Therefore, players come out with the belief that they can beat him.
I hope Rafa plays well and gets it done.
game time
Rafa in three. Thiem needed 3 sets to get past PCB and Gustao Elias. Rafa gets better with each match. I’ll say in 3, just in case Rafa needs it.
Waiting for Cuevas and Ferrer match to start.
lol, Klizan getting booed – conduct warning.
Ferrer is trailing 5:0 against Cuevas in the 2nd set having taken the first set 64.
^^^Sorry, wrong thread.
Players getting ready!
Vamos Rafa!
On the tennis channel they just said that Rafa did have an upset stomach yesterday. The conditions are very hot and humid.
30-30. Thiem wins a net point.
There’s Guillermo!
0-15. Forehand 11 meters out.
15-15
Ad-in after a big serve
game after a forehand on the outside of the line
Rafa holds.
the wonders of getting depth on a return!!!
Rafa breaks Thiem in his first service game.
2-0 Nadal with a deep return
Great drop shot from Rafa on his serve, seeing Thiem so far back.
Thiem has two break points after hitting a forehand into the net.
This has a familar ring – Thiem breaks back.
nobody gives breaks back like Rafael Nadal
#HalfaRafa
set Thiem
incredible how he lost serve there. incredible
but not surprising
Rafa’s forehand had been inconsistent so far.
Better forehand from Rafa.
Rafa played a lot better in this last service game.
huge volley to avoid 30-0
A combined 5 winners and 38 unforced errors in the first set.
The entire ATP is laughing for 10 minutes.
This is really dreadful. I changed my plans today to watch this.
Forehand has been a debacle
#Vulgar
Texas-sized hold from Rafa
Looking like the stomach bug might be back
Them is playing the best tennis of his life!!!!
Meal tickets are everywhere.
#Halfa-Rafa-All-You-Can-Eat-Buffet
I think Theim should change his name to Dominic Them.
Do you? Or don’t you.
i-B4-e
And somehow we are to believe that Rafa’s serve and FH are so bad due to age, past injury and slowing down.
Don’t believe the propaganda.
Do you?
No, it is a part of it. There is the other factor of lack of confidence. But one cannot ignore the reality of getting older in this sport.
This is not black or white.
Yet another FH UE.
How many times???
Ricky may be right about the stomach bug. Rafa has seemed kind of subdued.
This second set is way too tight for my liking.
I said before the match that rafa’s forehand would have to be on in this match. But it’s been inconsistent and that’s a huge problem for Rafa.
that between the legs shot from earlier was a poor decision. i think thiem is setting himself up for a choke.
rafa’s winning this.
absolute implosion by Thiem
Yep!
Where did that come from?
reusable
Wow! Rafa breaks Thiem to take the second set!
They have Monfils-Kohls on now, too. On serve.
Rafa’s serve stats were better in the second set. Also more winners.
Chronic loose uncharacteristic fh errors are mental not age.
End of.
It’s not end of anything. Aging is a fact. It is part of the problem, not all of it.
no, not uncharacteristic chronic FH UEs.
#MentalProblema
I am not disagreeing about the mental aspect of all the UE’s. But I also believe that aging is a factor.
rafa stepping it up, going for the kill. thiem looks defeated already.
match going exactly as I (and some others) predicted
Yep. Nailbiter.
Except it didn’t.
I stopped picking Rafa yesterday.
Congrats to Me.
Deja vu all over again.
#Verdasco
I predicted three sets and a tough match, but watching this has still been tough. I did say that physical stamina would be a factor.
i thought it was more mental. that between the legs shot seemed to be the momentum changer. a bad decision on a critical point. thiem is prone to mental lapses. for chokers it can play on their minds leading to a poor sequence.
Rafa, serve this out and get it done.
What am I saying? Thiem is serving!
Rafa, break him now and win this!
he’s about to lower the boom
What a massive forehand winner from Thiem to stay alive
Thiem with a huge hold!!!!
Thiem hits incredible shots under pressure. That backhand DTL. Insane tennis right now!!
Yes, great stuff from Thiem.
He holds serve.
PLEASE WIN HERE. PLEASE RAFA.
Tiebreak. Excellent
DF to start the tie break! wow
Double fault to start for Rafa. Shocking and not shocking at the same time
true…shocking and not shocking at the same time
Look’s like he is going to lose here.. 0-3 down… tsk tsk tsk…
No
Only 1 MB
did you see that missed drop shot?! that was SHOCKING even by his poor standards
Yes. Truly unbelievable.
What is going on with Rafa?
now Thiem becomes another player to score a win over rafa on clay.
Inexplicable… he needed to play around 70-75% to beat this Thiem and could not even do that…
Thiem’s strategy has been so poor but he is still about to win this match! 6-4 now…
no not inexplicable vr…he is just not at the races mentally speaking.
he says he’s better but he obviously isn’t.
one reason he could play well at the end of last year was because, as he said, he had no expectations of doing so.
now the expectations and pressure are back he is just folding again.
amy, i know what are you are saying but some of the mistakes he made today… just inexplicable..even if it is mental, what exactly has harmed him SO MUCH that he cannot even put the ball in court on a clay court!
He hits some vintage rafa forehands, makes me think he is getting there but then hits the worst possible shot he can hit to ruin everything.
vr..he has to act by changing the dynamic don’t you think??? he is just trapped in some weird cycle otherwise which is just self-sustaining….
he needs new people!!!!
That’s it. Just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse.
sorry but i honestly feel like shouting at him and toni to wake up and smell the coffee!! they are just clueless in not meeting the problem head on and making some damn changes….
in fairness, Thiem is probably top 7 in the world on clay right now: Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka, Federer, Murray, Nishikori, Thiem
yes ricky but the problems he has with nerves now are so bad….
am happy for thiem though as he is adorable..#team thiem…
Vintage rafa would have beaten him 6-2 6-2 to be honest. Thiem’s return positioning and overall strategy would have been poor against Rafael Nadal of old but it was effective today against this Nadal.
Verdasco.
#MakingExcuses
I would maybe put Stan ahead of Nadal at this point. ?? Sad for Rafa. Huge win for Thiem though he played well towards end of that match. He may be top 10 by end of the year. It’s not super likely but it’s possible imo. Also I would put Ferrer on there at 6 or something.
Ricky,
That may be true, but the tennis channel commies said that Thiem only had one win against a top ten player before this match.
Now it’s two.
How many do you expect for a 22 year old?
first set Almagro
He could not even get a good length on that second serve return , it was blood MATCH POINT!
How low will rafa go? He just keeps going lower and lower!
Until he makes a change.
Not about practise. Or age.
Definition of insanity.
Amy gets it.
Age can only be said to be a factor if he loses some big match in a slam against a big player like Djokovic but what is going on here is something else.
vr..i am sorry to say it but his relationship with toni which apparently is somehow set in stone is now a huge liability for him and has been for a good while now.
also don’t you think that the chronic inability to change is itself a problem and saps the life out of you thus making the problems worse and worse…
it’s virtually a neurosis in its own right…
VR gets it.
Do you? Or don’t you.
am not surprised tbh hawks….
writing on the wall as it will be until he finally does something
in fact all this is just routine and foreseeable now
it would in fact be surprising if he wins a title, even if that title is a 250/500 event on clay…and we are talking about the clay GOAT here!
Surprised this isn’t obvious obvious to everyone.
Nothing new for two years now.
Please stop saying this as though most of us are not aware of what is going on.
My other concern is that Rafa cannot afford to slug it out in these kinds of lower level matches because he is getting older and the injuries and miles on his body have taken a toll.
I have agreed that the primary issue is this mental problem, the lack of confidence. So I would really appreciate it if you would not make this personal.
Rafa apparently does not intend to do anything about it, which makes me question whether the will to win is gone.
impressive. rafa did look a little under the weather but came alive in the third. thiem might be reliable now. breakthrough year?
No, I just think that Thiem ran into a Rafa who is clueless now.
I do give Thiem credit for hanging in there when he was tired and coming up with some great shots when he needed it most.
But I do not think this win portends a breakout year.
Welp nailed my prediction on the head. Wasn’t convinced by Thiem before this match, and that hasn’t really changed afterwards. Rafa plays a B-B+ clay match for his standards and he wins this every time.
awful pick by me. Had Thiem winning then #waffled
Yeah I was tempted to pick him but didn’t.
forgot Ferrer. Thiem 8th, maybe 7th ahead of Nishikori.
The next stop: Rio de Janeiro.
looks like it is going to be more embarrassment there… is he ever going to turn the tables? :s
I really hope some miracle turnaround can happen…
#Zika
Vamos youth.
Tisk tisk Rafa.
he lost to Thiem, not to a 250
Cant win 250 on clay
the points are irrelevant
Look at the UE count and get back to me.
No top 3 player would have lost do Thiem.
you are right here
Double faults and poor drop shots in tie breaks are not age related.
#ProblemaMental
#NothingNew
Well what a non surprise. Nadal let everyone down once again as a huge favorite. Luckily I black listed him last time he cost me a lot of money and I put a decent wager on theim. Thank you nadal for letting hour fans down once again and thank u thiem $$$$$
was easy cash. What were the odds?
These losses will keep hurting him. If things don’t change, one day he won’t feel like going on court and losing to literally everybody out there.
I hope he wins in Rio. Somehow!
Even had match point today! Played that one quite poorly as well.
Halfa-Rafa over halfa-Rafa deja vu all over again.
No slams for Rafa this year.
2-2 on the year. Needs to make changes now before it’s too late.
it would be really stupid to predict him right now to win a slam this year.
Adding a new member in the team will not bring any sort of tsunami to his tennis life. If he loses in Rio , perhaps it would be time to seriously think about doing that.
here’s hoping vr!!! hoping with zero expectation though…
Now I realise why I seemed to the only tenngrander watching Monfils v Kolbi. I had forgotten BA overlapped Rotterdam SF.
Glad I couldn’t see it. Too, too depressing for words. At least i had the sense not to make a prediction but I stared in disbelief when I saw the scoreline. I joined the Thiem fan club two years ago but never anticipated he would be beating Rafa on clay so soon.
He didn’t.
Halfa-Rafa did.
At least you saw a real tennis match rather than this error fest.
nny, am leaving you a message here as i know you will read here later to say that i really hope you are not feeling too upset.
better to have no expectations in relation to rafa right now.
yeah…she’ll be upset of course…. I try not to have expectations but the losses still hurt..
Especially when it’s within his control to do something about it.
Amy,
I am upset. A lot. I know that you have emailed me to help me get through and maybe I need some more of that. I have been just sick at heart.
I don’t care about the why of it anymore. I just can’t bear to see Rafa like this.
I am doing well health wise now. No more procedures on my back. I am in physical therapy and doing a lot better.
I am grateful for that. But I am just heartbroken to see what is happening with Rafa.
your optimism tends to be your undoing though, don’t you think vr??!!
that’s when the pain sets in….
Didnt get to watch any of his matches. I think he has problem with humidity these days and I heard he has an upset stomach?
It seems that Rafa has poor conditioning these days and cant deal with humidity (and also the competition!) I even think that he should stay in Europe and play at Rotterdam next year (if he’s still playing), for Rotterdam is not a very quick court unlike 2009 when he last played there.
I think he will struggle at Rio too cos of the humidity; just hope that come the Olympics in Rio, he can be the flag bearer for Spain even though he may not win anything there.
Lucky,
Didn’t you say that things would improve on clay?
It sounds like excuses to blame the humidity and heat for this loss. Since when does Rafa have problems winning when it’s humid?
Yes he had; he was struggling with humidity at Rio all along and he was struggling at USO last year.
Well excuses or not, dont place much hope or expectation on him then! If you dont want to feel upset.
Lucky,
I don’t place any expectations on Rafa these days. I even said before the tournament started that I did not want to make any predictions about how he would do. I just wanted to see how he looked.
In every match he played, I just felt that something was off with him. He didn’t seem to be himself, more subdued.
I don’t like seeing Rafa this way. He doesn’t seem happy either. His will to win, that competitive spirit, doesn’t seem to be there.
I will decide if I watch or don’t watch Rafa play. That’s my choice. I also reserve the right to have my feelings about what is happening with him now. I am not blind. I can see that something is very wrong,
I also do not believe that time is on rafa’s side. I think there are some things that he can do to deal with his lack of confidence and mental focus and concentration. If it were me, I would move heaven and earth to try to get help.
Had you watched any of his matches, you wouldn’t blame it on the humidity.
#verdasco
I said what I think about part of the problem being age. Note the caveat in that sentence and in my previous comments.
Can we stop this business of beating something to death over and over just to prove that it’s all about being right?
I feel bad enough right now seeing Rafa law lose in a 250 tournament, when yet again he had match point.
Did not see the match but after carefully observing Rafa’s statistics in the previous matches and by reading your comments I realized Rafa was struggling more than anyone expected. I did not want to comment Rafa’s prospects against Thiem just thought if Rafa’s back is put against the wall meaning if forced to a tiebreak of the third he will lose the match. Rafa is not mentally strong for key moments of the match and his game falls apart irrelevant of who his opponent is…”verdasco syndrome”
natashao gets it.
Do you? Or don’t you.
Meet the new brand,
same as the old brand.
Verdasco syndrome! How appropriate.
I just do not understand how rafa’s team can let him go out there like this.
The way Rafa played that to was just so not like him. I have been concerned about hm all week because he was struggling against players who could not challenge him.
Also, what about when Rafa was so sick to his stomach in that match at the 2015 AO against Smyczek! He almost threw up on the court, yet he came back to win the match! So let’s just stop with excuses like humidity and upset stomach.
Ok so he was bad all round. Does that make you feel better now?
Ferrer OUT
Lucky,
You really don’t have to go there. Just let me have my feelings! Other people here aren’t taking it so personally and neither should you.
I am not saying he is bad all around! I am seeing that he is struggling.
I really don’t have anything more to say to you since you do not get where I am coming from and why I feel the way I do.
Whoa!! What the heck is going on today?? This is the final no one expected probably. I know I didn’t. Damn. Almagro defying the odds this week. This is huge for his confidence as this is definitely his best tennis that I can remember since coming back from injury a few years ago or something like that. He hasn’t been a threat like he used to be since the injury but maybe now he can get back to the form that had him at 9 in the world back in 2011. We’ll see how he bodes against Thiem. Minor really sure on that one but right now I’m leaning towards Thiem.
I’m not* (not Minor) lol.
It’s not the final that was expected, that’s for sure!
RT @BenRothenberg: Truly awful match, and it ends with Thiem taking it 7-4 in a third set TB over Rafa Nadal. Don’t let long scoreline sugarcoat this stinker.
Ben gets it.
Do you? Or don’t you.
Thiem was not that bad
I don’t care how pathetic Nadal is right now. If you are 22 years old, beat Nadal on clay, and save a match point in the process, you’ve done something right–regardless of the circumstances.
#Fognini
#verdasco
I had a feeling Thiem might win. He’s got a really good game generally and is one of those guys that would anyway trouble Nadal on a good day. Hope he wins now. Need to see new faces on tour.
agreed
agreed with all 5 points, in fact
I can see Rafa losing in Rio then saying he contracted the Zika virus then blaming this for another lousy year. With this virus rampant they should cancel this tournament and move the Olympics too. Women are not going at this point.
Can’t believe how far Thiem positions himself behind the baseline.He’s not going to last long doing that.
Yes he will. It’s the correct strategy on clay. He doesn’t do it on hard courts.
not the correct strategy against Nadal. Well, the normal Nadal..
right. Thiem knew how to beat this Nadal.
So did verdasco, almagro and fogna to name a few.
Nothing special.
Almagro will beat Thiem probably. He won’t hit short like Halfa-Rafa.