Buenos Aires R1 previews and picks: Thiem vs. Carreno Busta, Monaco vs. Cecchinato

DjokerThiem 2Juan Monaco will be back in action for the first time since August when he takes the court in Buenos Aires on Tuesday against Marco Cecchinato. Dominic Thiem and Pablo Carreno Busta are also kicking off their weeks.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (5) Dominic Thiem

Thiem and Carreno Busta will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers at the ATP level when they collide in round one of the Argentina Open on Tuesday. Their only previous meeting on the main circuit came last summer on the clay courts of Gstaad, where Thiem prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-2. They had previously split a pair of lower-level encounters, with Thiem winning a Futures match in 2012 before Carreno Busta came out on top in a Challenger date one year later (both on clay).

Clay is obviously the surface on which Carreno Busta would choose to go up against his Austrian adversary. In line with the story of his career, the 64th-ranked Spaniard went winless in two hard-court tournaments last month before picking up the pace last week in Quito and reaching the quarterfinals. The problem for Carreno Busta is that even though Thiem is an all-court player, the dirt may also be his favorite surface. All four of the 22-year-old’s ATP finals have come at 250-point tournaments on outdoor clay and he went 3-0 in finals last season. Still in fine form, Thiem is showing no sign of losing early in Buenos Aires.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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(Q) Marco Cecchinato vs. Juan Monaco

Due to a wrist injury, Monaco has not played since retiring from a first-round match on the clay courts of Kitzbuhel last summer. Nonetheless, the 31-year-old Argentine still registers at a decent 55th in the world thanks to a run of success in the winter and spring of 2015. He finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal at this same Buenos Aires event, reached the third round in Indian Wells, and made a surprise appearance in the Miami quarterfinals.

Monaco will make his return in the form of a first-ever meeting with Cecchinato. Whereas his opponent has not played a match in more than six months, Cecchinato has already taken the court twice this week. Seeded first in qualifying, the 92nd-ranked Italian took care of his two matches without any trouble to book a spot in the main draw. Although this is a decent draw for Monaco (until the winner plays Nadal in round two), he is extremely rusty and asking him to beat a solid clay-courter who is match-tough at the moment may be too much.

Pick: Cecchinato in 3

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57 Comments on Buenos Aires R1 previews and picks: Thiem vs. Carreno Busta, Monaco vs. Cecchinato

  1. I don’t know enough about any of them to make a sound pick. Thiem seems the best out of all of them. He’s okay, not sure what the hype is, he’s not good enough to beat the top guys, but I tend to compare them all to Novak. Probably not the most logical thing to do, I just don’t see anyone breaking through those top guys at the moment.

  2. I’m fascinated by Olivo. He has languished in Challengers for most of his career but has come to life on the ATP circuit – first in Quito and has now just won his first match in Beunos Aires.

  3. Olivo is I a month away from 24. Had to look him up last week when he made it to QF’s in Quito That was the first time I’d watched Renzo Olivo. Good win for him today. His next opponent – David Ferrer.

  4. Well, thank goodness for that! One or the other is okay, not both! Thiem makes me nervous because he’s got the game and has no pressure on him. He’s not that consistent and doesn’t have the mental strength or even physical stamina, but this kid can play.

    We all know what it means to play Isner!

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