Buenos Aires QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Lorenzi, Tsonga vs. Almagro

Rafael Nadal will be back in action on Friday in Buenos Aires, where his second match of the week will come against Paolo Lorenzi. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Nicolas Almagro are also hoping to book spots in the semifinals.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Paolo Lorenzi

Nadal’s title defense at the Argentina Open did not get off to a convincing start on Thursday night. In a rematch of the 2015 final showdown against Juan Monaco, Nadal got the job done 6-4, 6-4 but blooped in his first serve with little speed and alarming consistency (84 percent) while getting broken three times. It was the world No. 5’s first appearance since losing in round one of the Australian Open to Fernando Verdasco.
NadalSign

Up next on quarterfinal Friday is Lorenzi, whom Nadal has faced only once. Their only previous encounter came five years ago on the clay courts of Rome, where the Spaniard escaped with a 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-0 victory. It has already been a stellar and hard-fought week for Lorenzi, who has advanced with three-set victories over Pablo Andujar and Diego Schwartzman. The 34-year-old Italian dropped the opening set on each occasion before fighting back. Enjoying a career resurgence of sorts, Lorenzi is up to No. 52 in the world and boasts five ATP-level match wins this season. But the underdog may be fatigued on the heels of two tough tests and Nadal will be eager to improve from what was on display in his opener.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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Nicolas Almagro vs. (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga and Almagro will be going head-to-head for the seventh time in their careers on Friday. All six of their previous meetings have gone Tsonga’s way, including three on Almagro’s preferred clay-court surface. The Frenchman is 6-1 in total sets on clay against Almagro and he has taken 11 of their last 12 contested sets overall. Their first-ever showdown was by far the most competitive. At the 2010 Australian Open, Tsonga survived a fourth-round thriller 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-7(6), 9-7. If there is any good news for Almagro, it’s that he may have forgotten his futility in this matchup given that the two veterans have not squared off since 2012.

Almagro did not make too much progress in 2015 as he returned from a bad foot injury, but he is starting to show signs of a resurrection. The 71st-ranked Spaniard advanced one round at the Australian Open and so far this week he has taken out Albert Montanes and Federico Delbonis. Tsonga earned an opening bye as the No. 3 seed before crushing Leonardo Mayer 6-1, 6-2 on Wednesday night. That is an impressive, statement-making victory on clay for Tsonga–one that suggests Almagro is in for another long day at the office against his nemesis.

Pick: Tsonga in 2

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42 Comments on Buenos Aires QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Lorenzi, Tsonga vs. Almagro

  1. Half-a-Rafa Nadir over Half-a-Rafa Nadir in two dreadful rusty playing to the lowest common denominator sets losing more than seven games.

    Regardless, given that it’s Half-a-Rafa’s second match since losing to Fernando “new-brand” Verdasco, it won’t be pretty.

    Meet the new brand, same as the old brand.

    #DejaVuAllOverAgain
    #IfItAintBroke

  2. Tsonga in two and Rafa in two losing seven games or less though Lorenzi may make a set interesting and Tsonga may lose a set if he loses focus or something.

  3. Rafa took a couple of pills at 2:3 down in the 2nd set for a stomach upset. I hope he’ll be fully recovered by the time he takes to the court today.

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Just as bad give or take.

      Pico has never won so many games off Rafa (other than the match Rafa had to quit due to injury). And that includes two BO5s.

    • It wasn’t pretty. I wanted to see how Rafa looked in his first match since that first round loss at the AO. But even the tennis channel commies were noticing that nothing has changed with Rafa. I expected him to be a bit rusty. That’s another effect of losing early in tournaments these days. He doesn’t get enough match play. So the UE’s were to be expected and some issues with rhythm and timing on his groundstrokes.

      But there were times when Monaco was out hitting Rafa and I just didn’t expect to see that. It seems that the players know where Rafa is going to hit, what he’s going to do and they are ready.

      Rafa got the win. That’s what I have to take away from it. But until now, Monaco had never won more than 5 games against Rafa. This time he managed to win 8 games.

      I just hope for some improvement as Rafa moves on in this tournament.

  4. Can somebody explain to me what the hell is going on? From the livescore stats Rafa should be home and dry: instead he gets embroiled in a TB.

  5. I just got home to see that Rafa won the first set in a tb. So I have no idea what is going on. Another prediction out the window! Lorenzi already won 7 games and it’s just the beginning of the second set.

    It appears that Rafa is up a break. It’s 2-1 and he is serving.

    Uh oh. Break point for lorenzi. Saved by rafa. Another break point for lorenzi.

    • Lorenzi holds to make it 3-2 with Rafa still up a break. He’s won 8 games, so my prediction of Rafa winning and only losing 7 games is wrong again.

      I will just settle for a win again. But I don’t know why Rafa is struggling against these guys.

    • NNY, I tuned in when it was 3-2 in the second set. Rafa played reasonably well from that point onward… he hit some nice forehands and clearly he is trying to get back the venom his forehand has lost.

      I guess you are only following live scores? I am sure the the first set would have been a maassive struggle too.

      Rafa also hates these humid and hot conditions… he never feels totally comfortable in these South American events.

      well, I am happy he has won another match. For the time being, I am happy if he wins matches, esp in 2 sets.

      Keep fightin, rafa.

      • vamosrafa,

        I only just saw your post. I was watching it live on the tennis channel. Thank goodness they are showing Buenos Aires!

        I may try to check out the replay if I get a chance. I can’t compare to the first set, because I wasn’t home to see it. But the tennis channel commies were saying that Rafa was playing much better in the second set.

        His forehand looked really sharp. I also thought Rafa was more aggressive. I think some of it is just being off for a while. There are still signs of the same problems, but I just hope that Rafa can keep winning and get a good result here. He needs it.

    • Ghastly conditions. You can barely see from one end of the court to the other – the humidity is so high it looks like they are playing in a turkish bath.

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