Beijing and Tokyo previews and predictions

Novak Djokovic’s shoulder injury that plagued him at the U.S. Open clearly is not as significant as originally feared, because the world No. 1 is making a somewhat unexpected appearance this week in Tokyo. It is a big week on the ATP Tour with two 500-point tournaments taking place simultaneously, with the Beijing event boasting an even more impressive and much deeper field. It is home to top 10 players Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Karen Khachanov.

China Open

Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,515,225
Points: 500

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
Defending champion: Nikoloz Basilashvili

Draw analysis: Fourteen of the top 26 players in the world are taking their talents to Beijing, a testament to the incredible depth of this tournament (last year it was 13 of the top 28). That list does not even include Andy Murray, whose comeback continues with his second stop on the Asian swing. Murray is coming off a second-round performance in Chengdu, where he won his first ATP-level match since hip surgery by beating Tennys Sandgren before falling to eventual champion Alex de Minaur. The 32-year-old Scot faces a tough opener against Matteo Berrettini, with the winner possibly to meet Thiem in the quarterfinals. Also in the top half of the draw are Khachanov, Grigor Dimitrov, and Andrey Rublev. Dimitrov and Rublev have to square off right away in round one.

The first-round showdowns don’t stop there. They also include Zverev vs. Frances Tiafoe, Gael Monfils vs. John Isner, Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Sam Querrey, Diego Schwartzman vs. Fernando Verdasco, Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Zhuhai semifinalist Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and defending Beijing champion Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Guido Pella. Auger-Aliassime could run into either Zverev or Tiafoe in the last 16.

First-round upset alert: (Q) Pablo Cuevas over (4) Karen Khachanov. Cuevas already has two matches under his belt in Beijing, having qualified for the main draw. Despite being No. 9 in the world, Khachanov’s record for the season is an alarming 22-21. He has not won a match since the Cincinnati second (the infamous, controversial contest against Nick Kyrgios). The Russian leads this head-to-head series 2-1, but their only previous encounter on the fall swing was dominated by Cuevas 6-4, 6-2 at the Paris Masters two years ago.

Hot: Roberto Bautista Agut, Matteo Berrettini, Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Dan Evans, Diego Schwartzman

Cold: Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andy Murray, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Kyle Edmund, John Isner

Quarterfinal predictions: Matteo Berrettini over Richard Gasquet, Fabio Fognini over Pablo Cuevas, Nikoloz Basilashvili over Dan Evans, and Diego Schwartzman over Alexander Zverev

Semifinals: Berrettini over Fognini and Schwartzman over Basilashvili

Final: Schwartzman over Berrettini

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Rakuten Japan Open

Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,895,290
Points: 500

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
2018 champion: Daniil Medvedev (not playing)

Draw analysis: With so much depth in Beijing and nothing of the sort in Tokyo, this tournament should be—or could be—all about Djokovic. His health will likely determine the course of the week, as anything close to a 100-percent level may be enough for top seed to lift the trophy. If that is not the case, however, there are some challengers who could capitalize. Jan-Lennard Struff is a dangerous potential second-round opponent for Djokovic, while Lucas Pouille and Hubert Hurkacz are possible quarterfinal adversaries. Elsewhere in the top half of the bracket, Chengdu champion Pablo Carreno Busta is going up against familiar foe David Goffin and Denis Shapovalov has an intriguing opener on his hands with Miomir Kecmanovic.

In a wide-open bottom half, de Minaur and Adrian Mannarino could collide in round two for a rematch of Sunday’s Zhuhai title match. De Minaur also defeated Borna Coric on his path to the title last week and they may go at it again in the Tokyo quarters. Up first for the 20-year-old Aussie, though, is Chengdu semifinalist Lloyd Harris. The South African earned a special exemption into Tokyo thanks to his performance this past week.

First-round upset alert: Reilly Opelka over (7) Taylor Fritz. Not unlike the case with Isner, many Opelka matches can be 50-50 propositions since there are generally so few service breaks and plenty of tiebreakers. Fritz is sweeping the head-to-head series between these two great friends 4-0, which is somewhat hard to fathom aside from the fact that three of their previous meetings came prior to Opelka’s 2019 breakthrough and their lone 2019 meeting came on clay. Opelka is well-rested, while Fritz followed up Laver Cup duty with an opening loss in Chengdu to Alexander Bublik.

Hot: Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz, Reilly Opelka, Denis Shapovalov, Jan-Lennard Struff, Pablo Carreno Busta, Lloyd Harris

Cold: Taro Daniel

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Lucas Pouille, Denis Shapovalov over Marin Cilic, Filip Krajinovic over Gilles Simon, and Borna Coric over Alex de Minaur

Semifinals: Djokovic over Shapovalov and Coric over Krajinovic

Final: Djokovic over Coric

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