Three of the top four seeds have advanced so far at the China Open and the result is a blockbuster semifinal battle between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev on Tuesday (the other matchup pits world No. 1 Jannik Sinner against Chinese wild card Bu Yunchaokete).
Alcaraz and Medvedev will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 5-2. Each of their last three encounters has gone Alcaraz’s way, although Medvedev was mostly competitive during a 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 Wimbledon loss this summer. The fifth-ranked Russian also dominated one of their three hard-court meetings 7-6(3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 at the 2023 U.S. Open.
While clay and grass significantly favor Alcaraz, a relatively fast hard court gives Medvedev a legitimate chance. The Beijing court surface isn’t an ice rink by any means, but it is fast enough and low bouncing enough for Medvedev’s liking. He has been dominant this week, ousting Gael Monfils, Adrian Mannarino, and Flavio Cobolli–with just one competitive set against Mannarino.
Alcaraz has also played well since the U.S. Open, although no victory during this stretch has been spectacular. The world No. 3, who has dismissed Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Tallon Griekspoor, and Karen Khachanov so far in Beijing, has not defeated anyone ranked higher than Medvedev since Wimbledon.
Medvedev always seems to thrive on the Asian swing and this year appears to be no exception. The 2023 Beijing final was Medvedev vs. Sinner; this one could be the same.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
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