Beijing R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Zverev vs. Fognini

Rafael Nadal will continue his Beijing campaign when he goes up against Karen Khachanov on Thursday. The remaining second-round schedule also includes a showdown between Alexander Zverev and Fabio Fognini.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Karen Khachanov

Nadal and Khachanov will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers and for the second time this season when they battle for a place in the Beijing Open quarterfinals on Thursday. Their only previous encounter came a few months ago at Wimbledon, where Nadal prevailed 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(3). Khachanov has been pretty much a disaster ever since, with a slew of bad losses to Yuichi Sugita (Cincinnati third round), Yen-Hsun Lu (U.S. Open first round), and Marton Fucsovics (Davis Cup), among others. The 42nd-ranked Russian at least managed to beat Chinese wild card Di Wu 6-4, 6-2 on Tuesday in Beijing.

It was Nadal who came close to getting bounced of this tournament right away. The top-seeded Spaniard twice was within one point of defeat against Lucas Pouille, but he fought back to win 4-6, 7-6(6), 7-5 after two hours and 31 minutes. Nadal is now 57-9 this year with Grand Slam titles at the French Open and U.S. Open. He should be able to pick up the pace in this one and extend Khachanov’s woes with much less than trouble than he endured against Pouille.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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Fabio Fognini vs. (2) Alexander Zverev

At No. 4 in the race to London and in the world, Zverev can coast into a debut appearance at the World Tour Finals. Nonetheless, he is showing signs of employing the Dominic Thiem school of thinking and playing at just about every opportunity. Following Laver Cup duty for the victorious Team Europe, the 20-year-old German played in Shenzhen (lost to Damir Dzumhur in the quarterfinals after outlasting Steve Darcis in a thriller) and has turned up this week in Beijing prior to the upcoming Shanghai Masters. Having lost early in Shenzhen, a somewhat rested Zverev defeated Kyle Edmund 6-3, 7-6(3) on Tuesday.

Next up for the No. 2 seed on Thursday is second career contest against Fognini. They recently faced each other for the first time this spring on the red clay of Rome. where Zverev cruised 6-3, 6-3. Fognini is a solid 31-19 in 2017 following his opening 7-6(4), 6-2 win over Robin Haase and his fall swing began with a runner-up showing in St. Petersburg. But the 26th-ranked Italian will try to trade huge-hitting blows with Zverev and that will once again not work out well for him.

Pick: Zverev in 2

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35 Comments on Beijing R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Zverev vs. Fognini

  1. If Karen comes out firing at the start and Rafa starts passively, then I could see Karen taking a set. Otherwise, Rafa in straights. I think he’ll be much more aware of how he needs to play here after the first match.

    • Rafa’s opponents will come out blasting. They will want to get the advantage early in the match. I hope that Rafa comes out playing more aggressive tennis and doesn’t give them a chance to gain the upper hand.

      Khachanov is a ball basher and will come out going for his shots. I would expect Rafa to be ready this time.

  2. Isner is scary, he served Mayer a bagel in first set and up a break in second set 6-0, 3-0 . Mayer has yet to register in the scoreboard. Watch out Rafa if ever you meet Isner, he is mad ATM lol.

  3. Yeah, Isner destroyed Mayer! Huh! Scary draw for Rafa in this tourney! All these players who play great on this surface…

  4. awesome from Rafa!

    He’ll have to be really clutch on his serve to beat Isner. Got to improve that first serve delivery and of course make more returns. Isner was on fire at the Laver cup but Rafa played a poor match, esp in set 1. He can pull this one off.

  5. A routine 6-3, 6-3 win for Rafa. Oh no, next match will be against Isner. I am going to miss this match for sure as I’ll go fishing tomorrow along with my besfriend named John. haha

    #ItsLike_A_GrandslamTheChinaOpenIs.

  6. Match with Isner is pure lottery! Rafa can play well but if he plays one poor game he can end up losing the match! Isner is playing well atm but so is Rafa! Rafa’s confidence may play a big role! He seems so confident out there!

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Yes. Playing against Isner is not what anyone wants. Rafa needs to hold on to his serve at all cost then hope to catch Isner out in TBs where all his errors will count.

  7. Yep, really really well. In Laver Cup, he’s like serving from up a three at top of the mountain while Rafa was like struggling at the rocky slope of the mountain intercepting all those missiles fired at him lol. John hardly missed 1st serve that time and he served a lot of aces. He looked extremely tall.

  8. There is no way Isner will replicate that Laver Cup performance… He only ever plays like that when he is either playing a team tournament with a bunch of his bros pumping him up, or at a tournament in the United States. I think he’s only won one tournament outside of the U.S. if I’m not mistaken. Zverev/Kyrgios is who you all should be concerned about. Although I believe Rafa will beat either one of them in the final, just because it’s a final. I think Zverev would have a better chance than Kyrgios, as Kyrgios has not shown to be particularly effective in finals. If Kyrgios played Rafa in the QF or something, then I would surely pick Kyrgios to win that on this court, but not if they meet in the final…

    • Well Isner is replicating that form right now. Since when does Isner win two matches 6-2 6-3 and 6-0 6-3 to start a tournament?

    • Kyrgios is 3-2 finals so he isn’t generally bad in them. He had the loss to Dimitrov where he didn’t play that well but other than that he hasn’t really had any bad finals performances.

      • What I meant to say, Benny, was that it’s hard for me to imagine to replicate that performance against a Big 4 player, particularly only two weeks later and at a tour-level event. He could obviously prove me wrong, but history is not on his side here. If he were to repeat that Laver Cup performance and get his first tour win over Rafa, it would definitely be on a surface like this. He did beat Fed in Paris in 2015 en route to the final, so I guess he has recently beaten a Big 4 guy outside of the United States and Davis Cup. I don’t know, I just don’t have faith in John Isner I guess.

        As for Kyrgios, I definitely do have “recency bias” toward his poor performance in the Cinci final. I’m also just thinking about how he has tended toward playing his best tennis in the earlier rounds, and then usually losing steam after getting big wins earlier in the tournament. We know he is a world beater- he has wins over each of the Big 3. But every time he’s gotten one of those big wins, he hasn’t gone on to win the tournament. Since he hasn’t even had a chance to play a Big 3 guy in a final, maybe he would do fine and we just don’t know yet. However, until I see him beat a Big 3 in a final, I just can’t pick against Rafa if they faced in the final, even if the conditions suit Kyrgios way more than Rafa. The same goes for Zverev. Although Zverev has at least beaten the other two Big 3 guys in finals, in this season alone…

        • Great points. Yeah I misunderstood. You right bout Nick. No evidence that he can beat a top guy in a final or late in an event.

    • Nah, if Rafa continues to play well, he’ll beat anyone along the way, even on this court, except maybe a Djoko playing his best tennis! The problem with Rafa these days is that his level can be so up and down within a match; if he can sustain the more aggressive part of his game long enough, he can beat Isner/Dimi/Krygios or Zverev, IMO.

      • I’d like to see Rafa go into Shaghai in good form and with confidence. That could make for a great potential Fedal final in Shanghai! The stakes would be pretty great, with Fed trying to reassert his dominance, and Rafa trying to win his maiden Shanghai title. The chances of getting a Fedal final there are looking pretty promising as of now!

    • Zverev doesn’t bother me at all as far as Rafa is concerned. Krygios does although I think Rafa in the right frame of mind can contain him.

      • I can see why you would feel like Zverev is not a threat to Rafa, as he’s never beaten him. However, we should keep in mind that in Australia, on a faster court, Zverev did lead Rafa 2 sets to 1. So technically Zverev has won 2 out of 3 sets against Rafa on a hardcourt before. So while I agree with you that Rafa should come through a potential match with Zverev in Beijing, I wouldn’t completely dismiss Zverev’s chances. He has shown he can go toe to toe with Rafa on a faster hard court. He has also shown that he can beat Big 3 guys in finals. I know that Fed and Novak were not necessarily in good form in those matches, but most people can’t even get a sniff at a set against the Big 3 in a final even when they are not playing well, let alone blow them off the court in straight sets like Zverev did. That would be one of the big reasons why I would favor Rafa if they met in the final, as opposed to the Rome and Montreal finals- Rafa is is fine form and is healthy. Zverev may not be able to impose his game on Rafa.

        If Kyrgios is fully pumped up and not in tank-mode, then I certainly would prefer to face Zverev over Kyrgios in a final. However, I still just don’t trust Kyrgios’ attitude and drive to win. He will show an immense will to win and positive attitude in small spurts, but we just never know when he will just suddenly switch to “not-caring-enough-to-even-try” mode out of nowhere at the drop of a hat… It’s like one match he can be playing absolute lights-out, unplayable tennis, and then the next match lose 6-1, 6-1 without showing even the slightest effort. It’s really quite shocking, really, the stark contrast between the two Kyrgios’.

        • AZverev isn’t in good form right now. His level during his matches was so up and down even though he still won in straight sets. I think Zverev will lose to Krygios along the way, if Krygios continues with his good form.

  9. Isner has a big serve thats hard to break, although Rafas a better mover than Mayer, so Rafa will have his work cut out for him, but he can exposure Isner who doesnt move that well, its a step up in class for Isner playing Rafa, it will be tight probably two or three tight sets, but i still believe Rafa will prevail, but thats just my opinion ….

  10. Their h2h is 6:0 to Rafa. Rafa needs to hold on to his serves; play like he did against Khachanov today and if Rafa fails to break Isner, then he’ll have a good chance in TBs where Isner won’t be able to redeem mini breaks against him.

    • I don’t know if Isner can replicate his performance against Rafa in the Laver Cup match. Rafa seemed uncomfortable from the start of that match. Isner was in a good serving rhythm.

      When Rafa managed to break back late in that first set only to play a very poor gene and get broken right back again, that was a bad sign.

      I think Rafa will do better should he meet Isner. I haven’t been able to see Rafa’s matches so far. The time difference and scheduling makes it hard to follow the matches.

      I hope Rafa can play aggressive tennis.

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