Beijing R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Pospisil, Ferrer vs. Rosol

October 6, 2015 Ricky Match previews 141

Nadal MondayFellow Spaniards and World Tour Finals hopefuls Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer will be in second-round action on Wednesday in Beijing. They are going up against Vasek Pospisil and Lukas Rosol, respectively.

Vasek Pospisil vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Pospisil will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they collide in round two of the China Open on Wednesday. Benefiting from a favorable draw against Chinese wild card Di Wu, Nadal advanced through his opener 6-4, 6-4 despite another unspectacular performance on Tuesday. The eighth-ranked Spaniard is 46-15 for the season and looking for just his fourth title while also hoping to wrap up a spot at the World Tour Finals.

Pospisil also struggled at times in his first-rounder but managed to scrape past Victor Estrella Burgos 4-6, 7-5, 6-0. Overall it was a productive day at the office for Pospisil, who ended a five-match doubles losing streak with partner Jack Sock by overcoming Fabio Fognini and Simone Bolelli 7-6(5), 2-6, 11-9. In singles, the Canadian is a decent 21-20 for the year and registers at a solid 44th in the world thanks mainly to a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. Nadal is extremely vulnerable right now and Pospisil has the big-hitting game that can trouble Beijing’s No. 3 seed, but the underdog is 0-11 against the current top four players in the world and may lack belief against this kind of opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(4) David Ferrer vs. Lukas Rosol

Ferrer and Rosol will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Wednesday. All four of their previous encounters have gone the way of Ferrer, who is 8-1 lifetime in total sets at Rosol’s expense. The two veterans most recently faced each other earlier this year in Miami, where the Spaniard prevailed 6-4, 7-5.

Fresh off a title in Kuala Lumpur, Ferrer does not appear to be looking back in Beijing. The world No. 7 opened on Tuesday by disposing of Thomaz Bellucci 6-4, 6-3. Rosol kicked off his week with a 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-3 comeback win over Aljaz Bedene. The 79th-ranked Czech is a dismal 17-26 at the ATP level in 2015 and he has not won more than two matches at a tournament since the French Open. This is a nightmare matchup for Rosol, as Ferrer is one of the best returners in the game and can break down more one-dimensional opponents.

Pick: Ferrer in 2

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141 Comments on Beijing R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Pospisil, Ferrer vs. Rosol

    • I agree, rafa in 3 sets. He is still not at all comfortable on the court and seems to unsure. I hope he finds a way to win this and improve.

      and hello everyone!

      NNY, i read your health has been a concern. I hope you are feeling better . is it some physical injury or some illness?get well soon .

      Reply

  12. The National Stadium is running late. Wozi and Kerby are still on their first set. If they go to three sets, which is likely, it will be another two hours before Rafa’s match.

    Reply

  18. One of the commies said that Rafa’s taken out four bounces when he’s serving. They put up first serve percentages and Rafa’s is 86%.

    Reply

  39. They showed some stats late in the first set and Rafa had only won one point at net! That is surprising. But I thought Rafa was more aggressive in Pospi’s last service game to try and get the break and win the set then.

    I think Rafa looks focused and body language is good. Also good movement. It’s the first chance I’ve had to get a good look at him. Now he has to stay tough and keep it up, maybe going into the net more and trying to be aggressive.

    Reply

  52. I thought that Rafa was more aggressive in the second set. He was moving into the court and taking the initiative. I liked the body language, the focus and concentration. But most of all, I liked seeing Rafa stay strong in that tight first set and also take control of the tb.

    I am not going to get carried away, but I do like what I am seeing from Rafa.

    Reply

  53. Short ball costs Rafa on his first MP but a poor approach set Rafa up for an inside out FH pass for the victory.

    Nice win for Rafa.

    Ricky has picked Sock to beat Rafa in the QF.

    I think Rafa will win.

    Reply

  54. The stats show that Rafa won five out of six net points, so he was going to net more in that second set. Really good serving stats.

    Reply

  58. I am picking Rafa to beat Sock. If he continues to play like this, then I think he will do it. Now I wonder if Ricky will change his prediction.

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  59. really canot say much as Rafa has been so up and down all year. He cud play terrible in the quarters and lose. or he plays lights out tennis and wins losing not more than 5 games. Anything can happen…just that kind of year

    Reply

    • atul,

      Really well said. I thought Rafa played well today, but as you said he’s been inconsistent all year. He could play great against Sock or come out playing defensive and hanging out behind the baseline.

      I think the match with Sock will be a tough one. I don’t pretend that it will be easy.

      Reply

    • Ricky,

      I am not telling you to change your prediction based on what you saw today. I had my doubts about Sock beating Rafa in the quarterfinals. I posted something to that effect. However, it is true that I have not seen Sock play and apparently he’s in really good form. This is the first good look I’ve had of Rafa. I know that Pospisil isn’t as tough as Sock. I am taking that into account.

      The truth is that Rafa can lose to just about anyone these days. I actually think he will need to be more aggressive against Sock than he was today. I am not saying that Sock cannot win this match. But I still think that Rafa can pull off the win. If I’m wrong, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time. 🙂

      Reply

  60. Rafa has played Sock before so he kind of knows what to expect. In the first set against Pops, Rafa was feeling his way and was not reading the serve very well.

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  62. Good win for Rafa! He was serving very well…it may be my own impression but I thought Rafa looked more determined and more relaxed in this match…the expression of his face and his body language showed that Rafa did not fear this opponent…I hope it stays that way…

    Sock of course is a bad matchup for Rafa…but then again so is everyone these days…Rafa and Uncle T will have enough time to develop a good working strategy against Sock…camping behind the baseline will not help…

    was it also me or Rafa did not sweat as much in this match?.. if true, these are all encouraging signs…
    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • I clocked that too and his hair was still dry when he took his headband off. He has also shortened his pre-serve ritual (NNY mentioned he has also cut the ball bounces from 11 to 4) without any detrimental impact on his serve. Both are promising signs.

      #WorksInProgress

      Reply

      • ed,

        Credit for that observation goes to the commies. I am not sure who they were. It sounded like British accents, but it could also be South African. One of them did mention that Rafa cut the bounces to four. I just related what he said. I will try to watch the replay and see if I can focus on how often Rafa was bouncing the ball when he served.

        It’s odd because I didn’t think about the sweating while watching the match. But that is an excellent observation. I also thought that he played extremely well in the TB. That first set was really tight and if ever there was a time for nerves, that was it. For whatever reason, Rafa did not seem nervous against Pospi.

        You are correct. This is a work in progress. I saw some good things from Rafa. I keep telling myself not to get carried away. We will have to see if he can keep it up. Sock will be the first real test for him. But today I liked what I saw. Little by little.

        Reply

      • The South African voice would be Koenig. I was laughing to myself because for months he has not had a good word to say about Rafa.
        He has either been told by the powers above to stop belittling Rafa or he’s realised quite a few respected pundits (including former players) are convinced the current slump is a temporary hiccup. Either way Koenig has changed his tune and is back pedalling like mad. He was positively fullsome in his praise today.

        Reply

    • nats,

      I had the same impression as you. I posted my comments while watching the match. I did think that Rafa’s body language was good and he seemed focused and mentally in the match. Rafa did serve very well. He will have to continue to do that. Sock does present some real problems for Rafa. From what I am reading, he’s playing very well right now. I expect him to go out there and give Rafa a match. That’s the problem for Rafa these days. He’s lost his aura of invincibility. So players come out thinking they can beat him. Sock will come out blasting and take it to Rafa.

      Rafa cannot stay behind the baseline. He has to come out be aggressive. I thought he was more aggressive in the second set today. I think he has to come out aggressive from the start against Sock.

      I won’t be shocked if Rafa loses. But I still think he can pull it off.

      Reply

  63. Rafa has to come out aggressively against Sock, if he’s tentative he’ll probably be beaten. As a Rafan I take heart in your comments and also in seeing that the winners to UEs ratio is slowly balancing … I hope this is finally a sign of exponential improvement. Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • Shireling

      Sorry, but I did not see your comment before I just posted mine. I said almost the exact same thing as you about being aggressive right from the beginning against Sock. So I guess we are on the same wave length.

      Reply

      • don’t encourage me, ed 🙂

        If the shoes fit, flaunt, scratch that, wear them. That’s the expression,no?
        if the shoes are fit. No, let’s try that again.
        If the socks fit the shoes they could serve as thig… he won’t get too fit… on, tights. Oh, dear, Can’t work it out. If the socks match the thights. If the match suits. If the match pares the canuck socks with the gallego shoes the thights fit the match. If the fit shoes match with the thights socks. If the tights socks match the fit shoes. If the… oh, brother, can anyone help me out?

        Reply

    • Nice one, @nadline

      I didn’t know this word and looked it up. Pop socks are even a kind of tights :p)

      In 2016 Nadal needs to get back to again having maximum pop in his strokes. You know, the strokes of the balls.

      Reply

  74. Thx for the highlights augusta!
    I’m so happy to see this improvement from Rafa. That was a serious and competitive match. Pospisil didn’t roll over and the victory was hard fought.
    I was glad to see Rafa getting pumped up again especially when nailing a few deep FH shots, he’s been sorely missing them.
    This is much better and a reason to be optimistic. If he plays like this against Sock he has a good chance of winning.

    Reply

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