Beijing QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Isner, Zverev vs. Rublev

It will be a rematch of a recent Laver Cup contest when Rafael Nadal and John Isner meet again on Friday, this time in official competition in Beijing. Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are also aiming for a place in the semifinals.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (6) John Isner

Nadal and Isner will be going head-to-head for the seventh time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the China Open on Friday. All six of their previous meetings have gone Nadal’s way and he is 8-1 in his last nine sets against Isner dating back to the 2011 French Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since the 2015 clay-court swing, when Nadal prevailed 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-3 in Monte-Carlo and 6-4, 6-4 in Rome. It is actually the Spaniard, however, who may be out for a measure of revenge in this one. They recent collided at the inaugural Laver Cup in Prague, where Isner beat Nadal 7-5, 7-6(1) even though Team Europe eventually clinched the overall victory.

Isner appears to have maintained momentum from that performance, as the 6’10” American has not dropped more than three games in any set while crushing Malek Jaziri and Leonardo Mayer so far in Beijing. He is a solid 33-17 this season and currently registering at 17th in the world. Nadal twice came within one point of exiting in the first round, but the top seed recovered to beat Lucas Pouille 4-6, 7-6(6), 7-5 before defeating Karen Khachanov 6-3, 6-3 on Thursday. Although Nadal is often vulnerable this time of year and also staring at an in-form opponent across the net, the head-to-head history between these two is too glaring to overlook.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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Andrey Rublev vs. (2) Alexander Zverev

Zverev also participated in the Laver Cup and played a couple of tough matches last week in Shenzhen (lost to Damir Dzumhur in the quarterfinals), but a pair of straight-set wins in Beijing is just what the doctor ordered. The fourth-ranked German got off the court in relatively swift fashion against both Kyle Edmund (via a 6-3, 7-6(3) decision) and Fabio Fognini (6-4, 6-2). Zverev is now an incredible 50-16 this year with five titles–including two of the Masters 1000 variety in Rome and Montreal.

Next up for the No. 2 seed on Friday is second career showdown against Rublev. The two rising stars previously collided last spring on the red clay of Monte-Carlo, where Zverev cruised 6-1, 6-3. Rublev has since taken off, with a current ranking of 39th that is primarily due to a recent quarterfinal run at the U.S. Open. The 19-year-old Russian is going full steam ahead in Beijing, where he has ousted Jack Sock and Tomas Berdych both from a set down. Zverev, though, has generally owned his up-and-coming contemporaries and there is no reason to think anything will be different against Rublev.

Pick: Zverev in 2

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43 Comments on Beijing QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Isner, Zverev vs. Rublev

  1. Zverev wasn’t convincing lately , yeah I do feel a possible upset.But, I cant back Rublev this time, I picked him to win Chengdu and he didn’t .

    • Big Al,

      Yeah I’m watching the replay of Rublev v Berdych right now — and it’s not a great match from either player.

      I have not watched Sascha but he should beat this Rublev unless … well, Berdych won the first set 6-1 and looked to be an easy win for the Czech but Rublev decided he’d try…. and started blasting every ball. lol That’s what I like to see from Rublev!

  2. A. Zverev will definitely win.
    J. Isner will definitely win a set.
    R. Nadal might lose or win in 3 sets, i think he will lose.

    Hmm… Rafito will lose.
    Uh-oh not sure but Rafa can’t win this match in 2 sets, never ever ever lol!

  3. Couldn’t watch as I was preparing for a presentation. Just saw the scoreline!!! 6-4 7-6 (0) ! wow! Rafa must have been on fire!

    He continues to improve and the confidence he is carrying from the USO win has really propelling him.

    I think he’ll beat Dimitrov as well and then Kyrgios/Zverev will be tough.

  4. vamosrafa OCTOBER 6, 2017 AT 8:32 AM

    I think he’ll beat Dimitrov as well and then Kyrgios/Zverev will be tough.

    *****************************************
    Kyrgios maybe, but I’m not bothered about Sasha.

    • @nadline, yes NK is the bigger threat but I won’t count out A.zverev as a potential big threat. He has a big game but I agree that Rafa should be able to handle him given how well he is playing.

  5. I just came back from fishing and Jonh my bestfriend lost in the woods haha, not sure where he is at right now. My bad, was in a hurry to get home.

    Vamos Rafa.

  6. Rafa shows isner the difference between playing in an exho vs real tournament .

    Having said that still nervous for rafa vs dimitrov and zverev /kyrgios.

  7. I am just watching Rafa-Isner. There are so many positives to take but my favourite point so far has been that MONSTER 2nd serve ACE up the middle on 15-40 down!! I can’t believe I am seeing this from Rafa! It was a monster 2nd serve on a break point and we know losing serve against Isner kind of means losing the set. This is how much confidence Rafa now has in his improved second serve.

    Even though it is one point, it sums up how much Rafa has improved his second serve and how much more faith he has it now! I KNEW it! Have been shouting about his second serve for month and months and months. I took a while to really show results but it is so obvious now. It won’t stop and Rafa will continue to make it more of a weapon.

    • just to add to that, the man won 82% of his second serves!

      Just finished watching. Rafa’s ROS was SO sharp. He got the court positioning strategy perfectly right this time. His focus level was 110% in this match! Brilliant! If Rafa can play like this, he will win the title.
      Dimi is on form and will be tough but I see Rafa winning. The biggest threat is NK who is a bad bad match up for Rafa. However, the way he is playing, anything is possible for him to achieve.

    • I give Carlos Moya a lot of the credit for Rafa’s improved 2nd serve. Way back in Rafa’s book (2010), Moya was quoted as saying Rafa didn’t serve as big as he could because he wanted to keep 1st the serve % high because he didn’t trust his 2nd serve. I don’t know what they did, but his 2nd serve is better than his first now!

      I never want to see Rafa lose – and I love seeing him at #1 – but I’m not really worried about the fall tournaments. I’d rather see him stay healthy. Federer’s being smart about trying to keep fit. I want Rafa to stay fit too.

  8. One reason why I’ve never doubted Rafa for this title is that he has almost always played well in Beijing! He is 23-5 at this tournament! Seeing a tournament record like that would make one think that he has won the title multiple times. I believe that he would be a 3-time Beijing champion had he not happened, in 2013 and 2015, to come up against Mr. Beijing himself… Something about Beijing clearly brings out great tennis in Rafa. Sure, Dimitrov did beat him there last year, Kyrgios can beat anyone when he’s on, and Zverev won two-out-of-three sets against Rafa at AO, but Rafa is playing with such confidence right now that I don’t think those guys will stop him. I could be wrong, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against Rafa right now, especially at any tournament where he’s the only Big 4 guy there. If 2015 Rafa can make the final, then 2017 Rafa should be able to take this title no problem. First step is getting Beijing revenge over Dimitrov, which I believe he will do in straight sets…

    • Yeah, if Rafa takes the title in Beijing, they might as well just give him the year-end #1 trophy along with the Beijing trophy… Even if Federer managed to win Shanghai, Basel, and WTF, I don’t think that would be enough to pass Rafa. I don’t think Federer will lose sleep over it, though. He’s made it clear that at this stage in his career, winning the big titles is his primary concern. He knew that skipping a handful of big tournaments would hurt his chances of getting to #1, but he was willing to do it as long as it maximized his chances of winning majors. Clearly it worked as far as he is concerned… It would be nice for Rafa if he could bookend his year with a title in Shanghai, Paris, or WTF. Winning a tournament he has never won would a great Cherry on top of a great season.

      • The match was on 2:30 am my time. So I wasn’t able to see it. But from reading the comments, it sounds like Rafa played well!

        The tennis channel is going to show a replay of the match after the Dimi/RBA match they are showing now. Since I have to be out, I am going to record it. I would at least like to see some of Rafa’s matches.

        It would be a wonderful finish to this year if Rafa could get a some titles!

        Love that Rafa is putting more distance between himself and Fed.

          • vamosrafa,

            I got to watch my recording of the match! What a treat! Rafa was so focused and played such a clean set of tennis in that first set. He took care of his serve and did not get broken. Then at 4-4, Isner seemed to lose the rhythm on his serve. He started with a DF and then could not get in one of those first serve aces. Rafa sensed the opportunity and with some great ROS and smart play, got the break to take that first set.

            Rafa did well to avoid getting broken in the second set. I thought he looked very sharp and confident throughout the match. No sign of nerves.

            Then that TB was the icing on the cake! He just smoked Isner! Beautiful to see! What a way to finish!

            I was so happy to finally see Rafa play. He is looking good!
            😀

          • vamosrafa,

            I got to watch my recording of the match! What a treat! Rafa was so focused and played such a clean set of tennis in that first set. He took care of his serve and did not get broken. Then at 4-4, Isner seemed to lose the rhythm on his serve. He started with a DF and then could not get in one of those first serve aces. Rafa sensed the opportunity and with some great ROS and smart play, got the break to take that first set.

            Rafa did well to avoid getting broken in the second set. I thought he looked very sharp and confident throughout the match. No sign of nerves.

            Then that TB was the icing on the cake! He just smoked Isner! Beautiful to see! What a way to finish!

            I was so happy to finally see Rafa play. He is looking good!
            😀

          • Sorry for the double post. My username got corrupted and I fixed it and inadvertently double posted.

        • Start that “highlight package” by watching Rafa lob Isner in the TB! Wonder how often Big John has lost a TB 7-zip? Rafa just put on a show!

          • Ramara,

            I am SO glad that I got to see that TB! Rafa was perfect all the way. That lob! Rafa just was in the zone and had all the answers!

            That alone was worth watching! It does my heart good to see Rafa playing at such a level and enjoying it, too!

            Way to go Rafa!

  9. Hi there to all Tenngranders. Have been off the air due to major a major computer failure – this is the 3rd time this year – so I’m saving up to get a spanking new MacBook Air. Tried watching on my iphone but it did my head in!! Thrilled to see Rafa full of confidence and playing well. What a season he’s having 🙂

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