Three of the four Bastad semifinalists are seeded players, with the only exception being Francisco Cerundolo. On Saturday it will be Cerundolo vs. Pablo Carreno Busta, while Andrey Rublev and Sebastian Baez battle in the bottom half of the draw.
(8) Sebastian Baez vs. (2) Andrey Rublev
Rublev is one of the best players in the world; Baez could become one of the best clay-court players in the world sooner rather than later. This is an awesome matchup on paper and the product should be no different on the court. Although Rublev is a considerable favorite based on rankings (No. 8 to No. 34), Baez proved he can be competitive against elite competition when he pushed Alexander Zverev in a five-set French Open thriller and had a match point in the process. So far at the Nordea Open this week the 21-year-old Argentine has defeated Fabio Fognini, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Dominic Thiem.
Rublev is well-rested after practicing on clay for a few weeks since he was banned from Wimbledon. It has paid off with Bastad victories over Federico Coria (in a third-set tiebreaker) and Laslo Djere (7-5, 6-4). With Rublev more experienced and Baez coming off a two-hour and 49-minute struggle against Thiem, the second-seeded Russian may have a slight edge.
Pick: Rublev in 3
Francisco Cerundolo vs. (5) Pablo Carreno Busta
Carreno Busta and Cerundolo will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Saturday. It is a more surprising matchup, mainly because Cerundolo came out of Casper Ruud’s section of the draw. In between wins over Pedro Sousa and Aslan Karatsev, the 39th-ranked Argentine upset Ruud 6-4, 3-6, 7-5. Cerundolo has earned 15 of his 20 lifetime ATP match victories in 2022, most of which have come on clay aside from a shocking run to the Miami semifinals.
As good as the 23-year-old has been this week, Carreno Busta has been even better. The 18th-ranked Spaniard navigated a rough road to reach the final four, ousting Stan Wawrinka, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Diego Schwartzman. A 6-1, 6-0 humiliation of Schwartzman was especially eye-popping. Carreno Busta is aiming for a spot in his 12th ATP final, while Cerundolo is bidding for his second. It’s tough to pick against the veteran given his experience and level of play in Bastad.
Pick: Carreno Busta in 2
who ya got?
Rublev vs Baez….I would LOVE to see that match….Rublev in 3…..and PCB in 3.