Rafael Nadal’s Nordea Open campaign heats up in a big way in the form of a second-round showdown against Cameron Norrie on Thursday afternoon.
In his first appearance at this tournament since winning the title in 2005, Nadal opened with a 6-3, 6-4 defeat of world No. 461 Leo Borg on Tuesday. That improved the 38-year-old’s record in what has been an abbreviated season to 8-5, highlighted by a fourth-round performance in Madrid.
Norrie figures to be a much tougher opponent. The British left-hander has slumped to 42nd in the rankings, but he is coming off a respectable third-round showing at Wimbledon–where he upset Jack Draper before falling to Alexander Zverev. Norrie is 17-14 for the year following a 7-6(4), 6-4 victory over Jozef Kovalik in the Bastad first round.
Thursday marks the sixth meeting between Nadal and Norrie, with the head-to-head series standing at 4-1 in favor of the Spaniard. He has won both of their clay-court encounters; 6-1, 6-4 at the 2021 Barcelona event and 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 a few weeks later at the French Open. They most recently faced each other on the hard courts of the United Cup in 2023, when Norrie prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Although Norrie has racked up plenty of decent clay-court results throughout his career, his game is not tailor made for the red stuff; his style actually works better on grass (the former world No. 8 was a Wimbledon semifinalist in 2022). Norrie also doesn’t boast a ton of firepower, so this will be a match this on Nadal’s racket. Even though the 22-time major champion is well off his peak level, he is playing well enough to win it.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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who ya got?
I think this is a pretty tough match up for Rafa….but he’ll win, in 3.
Not sure why this would be a tough match up. Ricky’s analysis is quite on point. Moreover, Rafa usually owns left handers.
Since Nadal already beat better players like De Minaur, there’s no solid reason to expect problems for him with Norrie.
Note that Rafa kept training on clay (while the others switched to grass and back) so it’s expected that he’s improved significantly since RG. He also has 3 matches under his belt (albeit two doubles ones).
Of course, Nadal is probably not yet at his best – although he will probably raise his level only as needed. The unexpected can still happen, but probably not this time.
Its still a mismatch on clay. The only thing going for Norrie is that he’s lefthanded so wont have the huge topspin forehand into his flat backhand as much.