Bastad final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Borges

Nineteen years after winning the Nordea Open title, Rafael Nadal is one win away from a second triumph at this tournament.

To say that getting back to this stage was difficult would be an understatement. Following straight-set victories over Leo Borg and Cameron Norrie, Nadal outlasted Mariano Navone 6-7(2), 7-5, 7-5 in a three-hour and 59-minute marathon. With no days off, the 38-year-old survived another three-setter in the semifinals–overcoming Duje Ajdukovic 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Standing in Nadal’s way of the trophy on Sunday afternoon is Nuno Borges, whom the Spaniard has never faced. Borges–the world No. 51 from Portugal–is enjoying by far his best season on tour, earning more than half of his lifetime tour-level match victories (17 of 33). That haul includes Bastad defeats of Andrea Pellegrino, Henrique Rocha, Timofey Skatov, and Thiago Agustin Tirante. Those players have respective rankings of 153rd, 182nd, 253rd, and 121st.

It has been nothing short of a hard-to-believe stretch of good luck with the draw, and now Borges runs into the No. 261 player in the world.

Of course, this is obviously a whole different beast of an opponent in the form of Nadal. Although he is obviously no longer in peak form, the 22-time Grand Slam champion played relatively well on clay this spring and is looking even better–and healthier–in this post-Wimbledon clay swing that will soon be highlighted by the Paris Olympics at Roland Garros.

Nadal has to be fatigued, but he can empty the tanking knowing that this is his last match in Bastad prior to a week off in advance of the Olympics. He should be able to take care of business against an opponent who doesn’t have the kind of firepower that will put Nadal on defense.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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6 Comments on Bastad final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Borges

  1. I am sick and tired of seeing Rafa struggling against nobodys who normally lack the determination to accomplish anything important, but against Nadal they give 120%. I am convinced that normally Navone would have given up after the second set.
    This is actually the main difference between real top players and these blokes which CAN play really good tennis but normally they don’t bother – and this makes their matches really hard to predict.
    Normally this kind of players would be beaten before the match even starts, but they smell blood against a still struggling Rafa.
    Perhaps it’s for the best if Nadal loses today and has less pressure for the Olympics.

    • I understand how you feel about Nadal’s playing these guys right now. He will do what he will. Rafa knows why he is doing this. I could see him pass up competing in the Olympic singles, winning the doubles with Alcaraz, and then aiming for the US Open!
      We’ll see. US hardcourt swing could be brutal; who knows what weather will be coming in August!

  2. Well for sure Rafa met his goals and more: he played the maximum possible amount of competitive matches at this tournament.
    Watching Nadal play these days I had the feeling that the court conditions are not 100% suiting his game for some reason. It was like watching him in Madrid.
    I understand that he will be seeded at the Olympics and I doubt that he will skip singles. We all know that RG courts are perfect for him. He still has enough time to fix the problems in his game – now that he knows them.

  3. Okay, there was a post I typed Congratulating the ATP bracket results but it didn’t make it. It might have too long and a bit off topic.

    But now I don’t know where to try again to post results. I’ll wait until Newport finishes.

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