Basel SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Federer vs. Sock

October 31, 2015 Ricky Match previews 172

Rafa 5Rafael Nadal has survived a trio of three-setters and will face Richard Gasquet in the Basel semifinals on Saturday. Another intriguing semifinal showdown pits Roger Federer against an in-form Jack Sock.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Richard Gasquet

Nadal and Gasquet will be going head-to-head for the 14th time in their careers at the ATP level when they collide in the semifinals of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Saturday. All 13 of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, including five on hard courts (two indoors). The Spaniard has won 21 consecutive sets at Gasquet’s expense dating back to the 2008 Canada Masters. Gasquet actually once got the best of his nemesis, but that came via retirement after the opening set at an indoor Challenger event in France back in 2003.

The Frenchman is unlikely to benefit from that kind of luck this time around because Nadal appears to be heating up as the season comes to a close. The world No. 7 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis, and so far this week he has survived Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic all in three sets.  Gasquet escaped a thriller of his own on Friday, when he saved one match point to scrape past Ivo Karlovic 6-4, 6-7(2), 7-6(6). The fifth seed preceded that victory by taking out Jiri Vesely in three sets and Dominic Thiem in straights. Gasquet is an awesome 41-15 for the year and appears to be on his way to London as an alternate. This matchup, however, is quite clearly a disaster for him. He is unable to hit his opponent off the court with Nadal’s heavy forehand consistently getting the best of his one-handed backhand. Count on more of the same continuing, although this one should at least be competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(1) Roger Federer vs. Jack Sock

Federer and Sock will be squaring off for the second time in their careers and for the third time this season on Saturday. Their only previous meeting came in Indian Wells, where Federer coasted 6-3, 6-2. This is not exactly the setting Sock would choose in order to exact some revenge. After all, Federer is a six-time champion of this tournament, has been to nine consecutive finals, and boasts a 59-9 lifetime record. So far this week the 34-year-old Swiss has defeated Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and David Goffin–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin in the process.

A red-hot Sock finished runner-up in Stockholm six days ago and he has not looked back. The 29th-ranked American rolled over Denis Kudla and John Isner before beating yet another countryman, Donald Young, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 on Saturday. Sock is 35-16 for his 2015 campaign and he all but clinched a seed for the upcoming Australian Open. The underdog will be able to pepper Federer’s backhand with his own forehand that has been calculated at more revolutions per minute than that of Nadal. But Sock has played a ton of recent tennis and either fatigue or simply an overall dip in form showed up against Young. Unless Sock picks it back up and Federer plays like he did in set two against Goffin, this should be mostly straightforward.

Pick: Federer in 2

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172 Comments on Basel SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gasquet, Federer vs. Sock

  7. I gave my prediction on the daily picks topic thread but will repost it here.

    Rafa over Gasquet in 2 sets

    Fed over Sock in 2 sets.

    Reply

  9. Ricky has a way of putting Rafa down and putting Fed up like almost all tennis writers. Whilst Rafa ‘survived’ being taken to 3 sets, Fed only kindly ‘surrendered’ 3 sets in 2 of his matches.

    Epic ?

    Reply

    • Haha.

      I was watching highlights of a1998 match between Agassi and a 17 year old virtually unknown Federer. David Mercer was already calling him classy.

      Reply

  10. I’ve long thought there are strict instructions from above to keep TMF on a pedastal. The ATP is desperate to wring the last ounze of commercial value from his presence, Most likely he will be canonised as the patron saint of tennis when he retires.

    Reply

  12. Both Gasquet and Rafa have been taken to three sets in 50% of their last ten matches. And both have won 70% of those matches. This all points to a 3-setter. Gasquet is mentally a lot tougher these days and playing well but not well enough to beat Rafa.

    Rafa in 3 sets (with a TB in the 1st)

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  14. There is no doubt about it that Rafa should take Gasquet in 2…Rafa lost numerous close matches this year because of his inner doubts, mental lapses and lack of confidence on key points…Rafa’s game collapses when he is doubting himself…this fall we are seeing Rafa progressively becoming his old self and trusting his own game…it is still not perfect but he is getting there…

    these wins in Basel are huge confidence boost for our boy…Gasquet has never been a real danger for Rafa…even this “incomplete” version of Rafa is the favorite today…I do not think G has the game to trouble Rafa…but we all know it takes two to beat Rafa…this other opponent in Rafa himself is more dangerous but I think Rafa has been dealing with “HIM” quite efficiently lately…

    I am liking what I have been able to see from Rafa this fall…he is building up for the AO 2016…I hope he stays healthy and fit and then goes on to win AO 2016 and the RG 2016…I do not even care about the Olympics.. 🙂

    it should be Rafa’s win today…Expect Rafa to be flat and rather slow in the first set as he never gets pumped up against his friends…but I certainly hope that Rafa takes this in 2…He needs some rest for the finals..

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  17. finally some aggressive shots from rafa in that rally….big CC backhands,.

    another commanding point! perhaps he has woken up

    Reply

  19. vamosrafa,

    You are here! Finally! That’s a good thing! I am here, too.

    I wonder if Rafa can do this in 2 sets. I went back and forth with my prediction and maybe saying 2 sets is my hope.

    Gasquet is playing well up a break. Rafa needs to get going.

    Reply

  23. pheww! that was scary! I thought he hurt something there….

    A very good game though! struck his forehand with real authority… he is getting plenty of action on his CC forehands and flattening out his inside out..

    OH NO the trainer is here!

    Reply

    • no no it looks good now..

      not too happy with his tennis though…. he better win this in 2 sets! he’d want to be fresh going into the final…

      2-4 deuce!

      Reply

  32. fantastic tennis to win that 30-30 point! BP for rafa! BIG backhand ROS andddd he draws an error! vamos! 4-4!

    p.s, I wish rafa’s backhand slice becomes a more aggressive shot. It is pretty safe :/

    Reply

  33. Yes! Rafa breaks back. Much better length on his groundstrokes and more aggressive in that game. He’s got the knee taped, but maybe that’s just precautionary because he seems to be moving well.

    Reply

  34. Annacone said that there seems to be a drop off with Gasquet. Rafa holds and is up 5-4.

    I really want him to win this first set and if possible, get this done in straight sets with that knee.

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  35. WOAAAHHHHH ! WHAT A FOREHAND DTL! set point!

    niceeeely saved by Gasquet! he has hit some incredible backhands in this game…. deuce!

    Reply

  38. Why didn’t he go down the line! kept pounding his backhand! I guess he could not find the angle he wanted and Gasquet took advantage

    Reply

    • vamosrafa,

      That was exactly what I said to Rafa out loud while watching! Go down the line on that one! I think you are right about not finding the angle. It’s easy to sit back and watch and say what he should have done.

      But that last game to break Gasquet for the set was just a thing of beauty.

      Reply

    • Exactly my thought! Why does Rafa always attack opponents’ BH all the time? Not everyone is like Fed! Its like Rafa isnt thinking clearly out there.

      Rafa plays scary tennis, scary as in he’s always at knife edge, and happens to him, always struggles in his first service game of each set??

      Reply

      • I think he is doing a decent job at spreading the court in this match… Gasquet is not federer but Gasquet’s also suffers quite a lot at the hands of rafa’s CC forehand

        Reply

  40. That’s it!! Rafa’s best game of the match so far. Brilliant aggressive play. Hitting that DTL backhand winner from inside the baseline. Stepping up to the baseline on Gasquet’s second serves.

    Reply

  41. and now he rips a backhand DTL winner! AND LOOK AT THAT! jaw-dropping stuff from rafa! suchhh a high quality game this was! the best rafa has played this week.

    12 winners to 9 UE… he can do better in terms of hitting winners but the last part of the set saw much better hitting

    Reply

  44. No idea what is going on but the TennisTV stream keep rewinding itself. I’ve seen the 5:4 game at least 4 times but not the moment Rafa broke to take the set.

    Ao far, so good.

    Reply

      • Cant be faffed if you really want to know. He won the set that’s what matters. Anyway it has settled down now – in time to see Rafa drop his serve 🙁

        Wish he’d up the anti. He needs to get off court and have that knee treated.

        Reply

  45. vamosrafa,

    I just said almost the exact same thing in my post right before yours. In fact, I think we may have posted at the same time!

    Nice serving stats from Rafa. Look at the second serve percentage won by Gasquet – 36%! Not gonna get it done.

    12 winners to 9 UE’s isn’t bad. That’s the lowest UE’s I’ve seen this week. I think there will be more winners as Rafa keeps working.

    It’s so great to see Rafa stepping up and taking that first set after being down a break!

    Reply

  46. movement towards the backhand side not as explosive as it can be for rafa..but he’ll slowly get there…

    so 15-40 thanks to a vicious CC forehand and now 30-40 thanks to a thunderous CC backhand! pull it to deuce boy!

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  50. don’t know what is it about the first games of sets :S rafa almost ALWAYS struggles in thees games….

    Oh, gasquet does a fantastic job on BP…. he deserved to get this break..

    Rafa will break back

    Reply

    • I agree about Gasquet deserving that break with a great shot. I just wish Rafa hadn’t put himself in that position.

      Reply

  51. Rafa’s game looks quite messy now; standing so far behind the baseline and then approaches the net poorly. Hes looking a step slow also, must be feeling the tiredness on his legs after so many three sets matches.

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  52. No way of knowing how much the left knee is bothering him. He’s well used to playing through the pain but It’s bound to affect his concentration. Fingers crossed it won’t get worse.

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  54. I truly hope it’s not! But Rafa has had his chances to break back and can’t get it done. I know one thing. Rafa cannot afford to be broken early against Fed. Not there yet I know, but it’s not something I want to see on a regular basis.

    Reply

    • he will definitely have to raise his level a lot against Federer….. Fed’s got such a great serve and he is so much offensive.

      I wish rafa can get this done in 2 sets somehow! playing so many 3 set matches would mean he won’t be 100% in the final… he is not that strong now physically

      Reply

  56. And why cant Rafa just serve like that in his first service game of each set? Since he’s capable of serving ok and hitting aggressive shots then why doesn’t he do it at the beginning of each set? I really don’t understand his logic. Hes making life difficult for himself in every match!

    Reply

  59. Thank goodness! Rafa broke back and held. Now it’s either break Gasquet or it’s a TB.
    I really want Rafa to get this done now.

    Reply

  77. Sock is tired. This will be a breeze for Federer.

    Rafa has had the benefit of practicing with a right handed one handed backhander unlikr Fed who is playing a right hander.

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  78. rafa hit 19 winners in the second set! that’s impressive! 31 winners to 20 UE overall is pretty good…

    Room for improvement in a lot of areas but so happy with the progress he is making! he is finding his way to victories so much more often now! another hard court final…

    He has a good shot at winning an indoor HC title now

    Reply

  79. YES! Rafa wins and is in the final! I was so nervous throughout that TB. I just felt that Rafa had to get it done right then and there. He didn’t need another three set match. He needs to be ready for Fed, who I do expect to beat Sock.

    Fedal final! That would be great!

    Rafa really brought it when he needed it. I am happy, but hope that Rafa can work on cleaning up his game and winning more efficiently. No more of this getting broken in his first service games! He can’t do that against Fed! That’s for sure!

    Now I can relax and go back to my life!

    Rafa looked so, so happy! 🙂

    Reply

  80. This is the best Rafa has played all year. It’s quite something that he’s doing it at a time when he normally doesn’t do that well. Even more reason to celebrate! 🙂

    Reply

    • ^^ I’ve been thinking that all this week. If you’d ask me a month ago I would have said ‘no way he’ll go deep in Shanghai and Basel’. But he still has several more gears to go through before he can take on the big guns and win on a regular basis.

      #Slowly,Slowly,CatcheeMonkey

      Reply

  81. Yes!! Finally Rafa wins and in straight sets! A hard fought one though. He really must up his level in the final. He’s still playing from way behind the baseline, not ideal but I guess its hard for him to change that.

    Reply

  85. In his on-court interview, Rafa talked about his right knee: “I was a little bit scared too, but just I felt something …not in the knee I usually have problems… I ran a lot after that and I feel good, so I’m happy about everything and hope to be ready for tomorrow 100%.”

    Rafa’s on-court interview on 31 Oct. 31, 2015:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhpT034qsqU

    Reply

  86. Wait Ricky said Rafa wouldn’t play Fed. Might be a hole in the space time continuum.

    Looking forward to Ricky picking Rafa over Fed anywhere anytime.

    Last chance Ricky. You can use the knee concern to pick Fed.

    #DoYou???

    Reply

  87. Rafa was sliding on his left knee and then something seemed to happen to the right knee. He bent down and grabbed it and seemed to be in some pain. But after the trainer came and Rafa took a pill, he seemed okay.

    Reply

  97. Rafa has only lost one set in the last 12 vs Roger winning the last five matches. Roger hasn’t beaten Rafa in 3.5 years,

    It’s been almost two years since they played.

    Fed in 2.

    Reply

    • Is that your logic?! I really cant judge Roger’s game at the mo, he has had two 3 setters and his opponents I cant even remember their names. Between him and Rafa right now, I really cant say who is better. Just hoping for a great match…but one thing I know, whenever Rafa sees Fed on the other side of the net, he gets inspired…..i mean really, really inspired!!! Cant wait….vamos Rafa!!!

      Reply

  100. As usual Rafa will find a way to win. Fed was shanking all over the place and its Sock who was really bad to lose in straight sets. I doubt Rafa would be as clueless as Kukushin or Sock. If Kohl or Goffin could each win a set, Rafa should do better than them having beaten some quality opponents to arrive at the final.

    Btw, what happened to Fed? After the USO, he seems to be shanking so badly these days.

    Reply

  101. I think that’s it with Fed. He’s all about adding another slam to his total and preserving his record.

    I do think that Sock did not play anywhere near his best. But still, Fed’s looked a bit shaky this week.

    I also agree that if the likes of Kohls and Goffin can get a set off Fed, then Rafa can certainly do better.

    Rafa has been mentally strong all week. I can’t see any reason why he shouldn’t continue to be so in the final.

    Reply

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