Basel QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Cilic, Sock vs. Young

Rafa 3A blockbuster quarterfinal on Friday in Basel will pit Rafael Nadal against Marin Cilic. A far more surprising showdown features fellow Americans Jack Sock and Donald Young.

(7) Marin Cilic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Cilic will be squaring off for just the fourth time in their careers and for the first time in more than four years when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Friday. Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 2-1 after cruising 6-1, 6-3 on the clay courts of Rome in 2011. They have split their two previous hard-court encounters with respective blowouts; Cilic dominated 6-1, 6-3 in the 2009 Beijing semifinals before Nadal coasted 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 in round four of the 2011 Australian Open.

Despite a mostly disappointing season, Nadal qualified comfortably for the World Tour Finals. The seventh-ranked Spaniard is starting to post improved results, with a final in Beijing, a semifinal in Shanghai, and now a quarterfinal in Basel thanks to three-set wins over Lukas Rosol and Grigor Dimitrov.

Unless he gets an alternate spot, Cilic will not be returning to London–where he made his year-end championship debut in 2014. But that is mainly because a shoulder injury forced him to miss basically three full months of the season. At the moment, the 13th-ranked Croat is playing like a sure-fire top 10 player. He is 17-4 since the start of the U.S. Open and 6-0 in his last six matches, a stretch that includes a title last week in Moscow and straight-set Basel victories at the expense of Marco Chiudinelli and Teymuraz Gabashvili. Cilic has the prototypical game that can trouble Nadal: big serve, first-strike groundstrokes, and a flawless two-handed backhand. And unlike Rosol, he is consistent enough to execute his game-plan.

Pick: Cilic in 2

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Donald Young vs. Jack Sock

It’s not often that anyone–especially not an American–faces three consecutive Americans at a 32-man indoor event in Europe. But that is what Sock will do when he goes up against Young on Friday. The world No. 29 has already taken out countrymen Denis Kudla and John Isner, both in straight sets. A red-hot Sock is an outstanding 34-16 for the season and coming off a runner-up showing last week in Stockholm.

Surprisingly, this is only the second career meeting between Sock and Young, and first at the ATP level. They previously collided at the 2013 Winnetka Challenger, where Sock prevailed 6-3, 6-4. Also back on the rise just like his opponent, Young registers at 49th in the world thanks in part to an improbably dramatic run to the U.S. Open fourth round. The 26-year-old has advanced this week with victories over Henri Laaksonen and Kevin Anderson. This should be high-quality affair with both men extremely confident right now, but an edge goes to Sock based on superior firepower.

Pick: Sock in 3

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187 Comments on Basel QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Cilic, Sock vs. Young

  1. “He is 17-4 since the start of the U.S. Open and 6-0 in his last six matches,”

    None of those wins against a player ranked better that No. 18.

    It would be Cilic’s first victory over a Top 10 player in over a year since he beat Fed at the US Open in 2014.

    That said, picking Rafa matches is a coin toss.

    • Shouldn’t be but probably will be. I didn’t realize Cilic has beat Nadal one out of three I thought or assumed really that Rafa had won like 5 out of 5 or something. Still I don’t know if Cilic has the mental strength or belief to beat a top player right now even if it is a less dangerous version of Rafa. Still I think Nadal will fight through. I was thinking Nadal in two but I’ll give Marin a set. An upset isn’t out of the question but I’m taking Rafa nonetheless.

    • I wouldn’t call a guy who is ranked #13 should be dismissed. It’s true that Cilic is not playing at the level he was in 2014, but the shoulder injury cost him three months this year. He’s done well to be where he’s at right now.

  2. I can see why Ricky took Cilic in straights though. I just have a feeling Rafa will step u his game when it matters most and Marin will disappoint with the opportunity kinda like dimitrov did.

  3. That match in Beijing in 2009 when Cilic easily beat Nadal, Nadal didn’t turn up, he said he wasn’t mentally on court, I expect due to the emotional stress he was under with the divorce of his parents going through and being on call from Spain with the latest developments, so I discount the result of that match.

    Of course, if Rafa turns up below par, anything can happen, but if he is switched on, he should come through.

  4. As for the all American match up I’m gonna take young in 3. I think this will really solidify young’s recent improved consistency. Plus he will be less tired and I think he should match up well with sock.

  5. Rafa will find a way to win. Cilic does serve well but hes more one dimensional than Dimi. Cilic’s weakness is his FH and if Rafa knows and exploits that, I like Rafa’s chances of winning.

  6. Rafa will find a way to win. Cilic does serve well but hes more one dimensional than Dimi. Cilic’s weakness is his FH and if Rafa knows and exploits that, I like Rafa’s chances of winning.

  7. I agree that Rafa will find a way to win. But I don’t think it’s going to be easy. Cilic hasn’t been great this year, nowhere as good as last year when he won the USO, these indoor hard courts suit his game.

    I like the way Rafa has been fighting and changing his tactics in his matches. He’s got the better tennis brain and also more weapons at his disposal. But I think it could go 3 sets.

  8. I don’t think winning necessarily makes a player tired. I am going with Sock to get the win over Young in 3 sets.

    Another match with two American men. Nice to see!

  9. I’m neutral on these matches but it would be really interesting to see how much young could challenge Rafa on these courts and how they r both lefties would make for an entertaining matchup imo unless of course young got blown off the court.

  10. even this version of Rafa can and should beat Cilic…his game isn’t impressive at all and depends a lot on his first serve…time for Rafa to implement those changes that he talked about…if it works that will be great…if not, who cares…it’s not the end of the world even if Rafa loses today…

    I always think that slicing a lot should be implemented against Cilic…he can not bend his knees sufficiently well…and also he should be forced to run…he is tired already…and he is not much of the runner either…let’s see whether Rafa will do it properly…I just hope Rafa doesn’t end up camping behind the baseline…

    Vamos Rafa!

  11. I would never bet against Federer in Basle although Delpo’s pulled it off twice.
    Kolbi made him work for the win. Don’t know what happened to Fed’s serving in the first two sets (1st serve only 48% including a double fault in each set). but he raised it to 88% with 8 aces during the decider. Whatever his game plan was he left it pretty late to pull the fat out of the fire. Ok, I know,. I know – that’s what champions do 🙂

    Presumably Roger will clean up his act if he has to face Sock. if anyone is going to cause the upset it’s Sock. Highly unlikely Goffin will.

  12. Unlike some American players both Sock and Young seem at ease on European soil.
    Could be tricky for Sock as they’ve never played each other but his experience should come to the fore in this match.

    Sock in 3

  13. I’ve not been overwhelmed by what I have seen of Cilic in recent months but like every body on the tour facing Rafa he will be pumped up for this match. And Rafa will be, too.

    It’s bound to be another nailbitting ride on the switchback for his fans but again with a happy outcome.

    Rafa in 3 (with at least one, even two TBs)

  14. It seems like when ever a under dog is playing a top ten player, the dogs up their level significantly. The dogs I believe care about the win over a top player much more than winning the tournament. For example, nadal vs Tsonga recently. I have never seen Tsonga do a monfils style dive shot and he did it to get a match point. That day was ridiculous. Or. Kyrgios when he beat federer last year, kyrgios was playing 100% serious every point and this is very rare for kyrgios.

    • Beating top players carries a lot of kudos. Look how Kyrgios became famous just by beating Nadal once. Even though he hasn’t done much since he is still seen a s a great player and his CV is dominated by beating Nadal.

  15. Me thinks Sock is looking a touch jaded today. Not surprising he’s played a ton of matches recently. There has to be a time when he will need to choose between doubles and singles.

  16. I’m not too impressed with Sock today; maybe he won’t be able to defeat Federer should he go through. Not that I want Fed defeated at all costs, I just thought it was a possibility.

  17. I just got home, haven’t even taken my stuff out of the car. I was trying to follow the score of Rafa’s match but that’s not a good idea when you are driving.

    So they are on serve so far.

  18. I never speed, but I drove home like a maniac to see this match. The things I do for Rafa!

    So far Rafa seems to be serving well. Of course, Cilic is too.

  19. my brain saids cilic is in champion form and will win, my heart saids nadal has the champion inside and if the champ comes out then he will win.

  20. Not anymore. Rafa was broken at 4-4. Now Cilic will be serving for the first set. That was a sloppy game from Rafa at a key point where he needed to hold.

  21. That’s tough because Rafa was doing well and holding his serve. Somehow I can’t see Cilic not getting it done here.

  22. Cilic has raised his level for this match. Rafa has his work cut out now to get back into the it. It’s unlike him to let things simmer.

  23. YES! Rafa holds and consolidates the break! He’s not out of this yet. Rafa is hitting his forehand much better now. He looks more focused.

    He needed something to change the dynamic and shake things up after losing the first set. Now he looks pumped up again,

  24. Annacone is talking about the adjustments that Rafa has made, going more to Cilic’s backhand and forcing him to hit it on the run. That is what he thinks is the difference now.

  25. Rafa is more focused now and playing better. What I am really happy about, is that he’s still in there fighting. That’s all anyone can ask of him. He’s not giving up. But his shots have been just that much off today and I think he’s been frustrated by it. The backhand and the forehand have been somewhat off and it’s cost him. But he is hanging in there.

  26. Cilic’s serve stats went way down in the second set. More errors from Cilic.

    I am so proud of Rafa!

    I said right here! It ain’t over until it’s over!

  27. Hah! What did I say! For all the grief I have taken here, I was the one who said – it ain’t over until it’s over. I was with Rafa all the way!

    Rafa in 3 sets! Congratulations to me!

    Way to go, champ! Rafa is in the semifinals! 🙂

    I believed in you, Rafa!

  28. Now Fed has to come out and play. Good, I can sit back and watch without a care!

    I kept thinking to myself, if Rafa can just find a way to get through this match, he’s got a great chance against Gasquet in the semis!

    This is just unbelievable!

    No one can say Rafa had an easy draw here! But he’s been up to the test!

    • I was forgetting he plays Gasquet next. Well their h2h is 13-1 and that was a retirement by Rafa back in 2003 on the Challenger circuit.

    • Rafa keeps to be moving steady, gaining confidence slowly, it would be great if he competes on Sunday, and even greater if he beats Roger. I’m sure Roger would still not like to play Rafa even if Rafa is not in top form!! Vamos, Rafa, one game at a time!

  29. Cilic mixed some awesome shots hitting the lines with some ridiculous shanks.
    Rafa still needs fixing his winners to UEs ratio.

  30. Cilic had 49 UE’s! Rafa with 26. He was missing a lot in the first set and a half, but got it together in that third set.

    I am still on cloud nine over this victory! 🙂

    I am raising my glass and giving Rafa three cheers’

    Hip hip hooray! Hip hip hooray! Hip hip hooray!

  31. Rafa is trying to be more aggressive, so there will be more UE’s. As long as he’s going for his shots and staying closer to the baseline, I can live with the UE’s. He will get that sorted out.

    What a week this has been for Rafa! All big serving guys!

    Rafa was so happy at the end of that match. He couldn’t contain his joy!

    I am just trying to savor this moment. 🙂

  32. Interesting that Annacone thinks Rafa was just average in this match and that it was an accomplishment to beat the #12 player not being at his best. I think he gave Rafa a grade of “C” for this match. I don’t care! I’ll take it because Rafa is going in the right direction.

  33. I haven’t seen one of Rafa’s matches since Wimby this year so this did seem as an average display from him but knowing where he’s coming from it’s a great achievement and Rafa is right in expressing his satisfaction at the end. Well done Rafa

  34. According to Koenig and he other guy on Sky whose name escapes me, Cilic was a big test for Rafa, bigger than Rosol and Dimi but now that Rafa has beaten Cilic, all of a sudden it’s no big deal to beat world #12.

    That’s why Rafa says he doesn’t about what these people have to say about him and his game.

  35. @ nadline,

    I sure know what Ricky’s prediction was 🙂 that is why I said his” inner” or I should have stated “hidden” doubts…he seems to constantly refuse to come out with his real feelings about this…he does not want to let Fed dearest down… 🙂

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