It is a big week on tour, with a pair of 500-point tournaments on the schedule and five spots in the Nitto ATP Finals still up for grabs. Daniil Medvedev is a virtual lock for Turin, but that still means half of the eighth places are still hanging in the balance. Of the players who are in realistic contention, five are taking the court this week in either Basel or Vienna (Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul, and Grigor Dimitrov). Rublev and Ruud are the top two seeds in Basel, while De Minaur, Paul, and Dimitrov are taking their talents to Vienna.
Swiss Indoors Basel
Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 2,385,100 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
Defending champion: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Draw analysis: Felix Auger-Aliassime salvaged what had been a terrible 2023 campaign by successfully defending his Basel title. The Canadian will be looking to work similar magic in his return trip to this tournament as he seeks a third consecutive trophy. Auger-Aliassime, who has struggled mightily in 2024 aside from a runner-up performance in Madrid, awaits Sebastian Baez in his opener and finds himself in a section with Ruud. It is a great draw for the No. 8 seed, but can he make the most of it? Tallon Griekspoor, Jerry Shang, and Antwerp champ Roberto Bautista Agut could also be factors in the bottom half of the bracket.
At the top of the draw, Rublev has a manageable path through two rounds before likely running into UTS Frankfurt winner Ben Shelton. Stefanos Tsitsipas, who needs to capture the title to put himself in any kind of Turin contention, opens with Franciscu Cerundolo before potentially meeting Alexander Bublik in the last 16 and Arthur Fils in the quarters.
Hot: Arthur Fils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Jerry Shang, Tallon Griekspoor
Cold: Holger Rune, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Nicolas Jarry, Alexander Bublik
Quarterfinal predictions: Andrey Rublev over Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tallon Grieskpoor over Ugo Humbert, and Jerry Shang over Felix Auger-Aliassime
Semifinals: Fils over Rublev and Griekspoor over Shang
Final: Griekspoor over Fils
Erste Bank Open
Where: Vienna, Austria
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,470,310 Euros
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
2023 champion: Jannik Sinner (not playing)
Draw analysis: This is the final tournament in the Grand Slam-winning career of Dominic Thiem, who will be saying goodbye in front of the home crowd. Thiem, the 2020 U.S. Open champion, has a favorable first-round draw against Luciano Darderi–who is a clay-court specialist and indoor hard-court novice. Unfortunately for Thiem, given his own lackluster form a win looks like a longshot. If the Austrian does advance, he could meet Kei Nishikori in round two and eventually Dimitrov in the quarterfinals. Elsewhere in the top half of the bracket, Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti are on a collision course for the last eight.
The bottom half looks pretty wide open. Paul is without question the cream of the crop, but it remains to be seen if he is fatigued following his triumph in Stockholm on Sunday. The unseeded contingent in this section is incredibly strong. It includes Karen Khachanov (the Almaty champion), Matteo Berrettini, Brandon Nakashima, Flavio Cobolli, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and qualifier Jakub Mensik. Cobolli and Davidovich Fokina are squaring off in round one, with the winner to face De Minaur.
Hot: Tommy Paul, Jack Draper, Tomas Machac, Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik, Karen Khachanov
Cold: Dominic Thiem, Jan-Lennard Struff, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Cameron Norrie
Quarterfinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Lorenzo Sonego, Jack Draper over Tomas Machac, Tommy Paul over Matteo Berrettini, and Jakub Mensik over Flavio Cobolli
Semifinals: Zverev over Draper and Paul over Mensik
Final: Zverev over Paul
who ya got?