Basel and Valencia previews and predictions

October 25, 2015 Ricky Tournament previews 234

Roger Federer has played only one ATP tournament match since the U.S. Open, but he hopes to get five under his belt this week in Basel. The crowd favorite is 56-9 lifetime at this home event with six titles (including last year) and he has reached the final in nine consecutive appearances. As usual, though, Federer will have plenty of competition—the 2015 field also features Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, and Marin Cilic, just to a name a few.

While that 500-point tournament headlines the action, a strong 250-pointer will also be in progress. Although Valencia has been downgraded (switched with Vienna), it still boasts an entertainment-heavy draw consisting of David Ferrer, Benoit Paire, and Nick Kyrgios.

Swiss Indoors Basel

Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,575,295 Euros

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Federer could not have asked for a better draw in Basel. The 34-year-old Swiss will kick off his campaign against Mikhail Kukushkin before likely running into Philipp Kohlschreiber and then David Goffin (the latter would represent a rematch of last season’s final). Even Nadal is on the other side of the bracket, thus presumably making life easier for Federer. Potential semifinal opponents for the No. 1 seed include Kevin Anderson John Isner, and Stockholm runner-up Jack Sock.

Nadal’s path, on the other hand, is taxing to say the least. The third-seeded Spaniard is going up against Lukas Rosol on Monday before possible dates with Grigor Dimitrov and Cilic. Wawrinka’s draw is similarly difficult. In fact, everyone in this half other than Cilic has something tough—at least on paper—prior to the quarters. Wawrinka has to face Ivo Karlovic right off the bat, with the winner potentially meeting Alexandr Dolgopolov.

First-round upset alert: Ernests Gulbis over (6) John Isner. Gulbis traditionally has his way with big servers and last week in Vienna was no exception. The Latvian took down Isner 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 and Ivo Karlovic in pair of tiebreakers en route to the semis. Gulbis is now 3-2 lifetime against the American (and 2-0 at the expense of Karlovic), having also prevailed on grass (Wimbledon 2008) and clay (Monte-Carlo 2013). In all likelihood Isner will get some revenge for Vienna, but the sixth seed is often vulnerable outside the United States and is always an upset risk because of his propensity for close matches with very few service breaks.

Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Jack Sock

Cold: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Adrian Mannarino, Ernests Gulbis, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexandr Dolgopolov

Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over David Goffin, John Isner over Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic over Rafael Nadal, and Stan Wawrinka over Dominic Thiem

Semifinal predictions: Federer over Isner and Wawrinka over Cilic

Final: Federer over Wawrinka

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Valencia Open

Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 537,050 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: David Ferrer
2014 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

Draw analysis: Both of the Vienna finalists–Ferrer and Steve Johnson–are getting right back in action at the Valencia Open. While Ferrer has the benefit of a bye and may not have to play again until Thursday, his draw is not a friendly one. The Spaniard’s opening match will likely come against Kyrgios, who is back in decent form after a rough summer both on and off the court. Jeremy Chardy, who is playing well and especially dangerous indoors, looms as a potential quarterfinal opponent for either Ferrer or Kyrgios. The top half is also home to Paire and Bernard Tomic, whose mental games are at least starting to show signs of catching up to their talent.

At the bottom of the bracket, Johnson will open with Martin Klizan—likely on Wednesday—and would face Lopez in the last 16. The entire side is considerably weaker than the top half, in part because it includes all three wild cards plus two qualifiers. Two of the seeds—Fabio Fognini and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez—can be vulnerable and another, Roberto Bautista Agut, is coming off a long week in Moscow (runner-up to Cilic). This is a wide-open path to the final for Lopez, but any number of players could capitalize if the Spaniard stumbles early.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Nicolas Almagro over (7) Roberto Bautista Agut. A huge edge in current form goes to Bautista Agut, but the seventh seed may be more interested in rest than Valencia success. He also finished runner-up to Cilic last year in Moscow (also by a 6-4, 6-4 scoreline, in fact) then pulled out of Valencia prior to his second-round match. Almagro has not yet regained top form following a long injury layoff, but he advanced one round in Stockholm after picking up his first ATP-level win since a post-Wimbledon stretch on clay.

Hot: David Ferrer, Bernard Tomic, Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire, Jeremy Chardy, Steve Johnson

Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro, Santiago Giraldo, Marcel Granollers, Pablo Andujar

Semifinal predictions: Nick Kyrgios over Bernard Tomic and Feliciano Lopez over Fabio Fognini

Final: Lopez over Kyrgios

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234 Comments on Basel and Valencia previews and predictions

  2. Stan has a bridge to cross in his first round match strewed with aces served by Dr Ivo from the top of a tree. Let’s see him cross that bridge first before we put him in the final. Stan leads their h2h 5:1 but every match was close.

    I don’t know what will happen Ricky, but Cilic is not beating Rafa if they meet.

    Reply

  5. The first round upset alert for a possible Gulbis win over Isner would mean that Isner can’t get to the quarterfinals. So I assume that Ricky thinks Isner will still beat Gulbis. We will see.

    Reply

  6. I am not even thinking about a Fedal final yet. Fed has an easy path, but Rafa’s is more tricky. One match at a time.

    Reply

  7. vamosrafa,

    Yes, of course I would love to see it, same as you. I just don’t want to get too carried away just yet! 🙂

    Reply

    • that is the right way to go about things at the moment,… rafa’s progressing nicely but these are indoor conditions. However, the type of changes rafa is trying to implement , they can make him better than he ever was in indoor conditions. It will take some time…we know his goal is to prepare well for 2016 but a title here would be soooo lovely…lotsss of work to do of course

      Reply

  8. Rafa is not that bad indoors. I have seen him courtside at the O2 and he can hold his own. In 2009 when he failed to win a set he was just going through the motions because he was emotionally drained for personal reasons. He even beat Fed the last time they played each other at the O2.

    Reply

    • ‘not that bad’ says it all 🙂 he is Rafael Nadal! He has played at a good level indoors but definitely lots of room for improvement… he has improved over the years and yes he did beat federer in straight sets but we should also keep in mind that federer had a terrible 2013! Fed’s better indoors but if rafa can build some nice momentum, he can take fed down…

      Reply

      • If excuses are permitted, then I should point out that Rafa was unwell with food poisoning when Roger beat him 63 60 at the O2 in 2011. The reason I said ‘not that bad’ was in response to how people’s opinion of Rafa indoor is unfairly low.

        Reply

      • Nadline, as Ricky said ,results are results…esp when they span a decade or so! You just need to look at the results of federer and nadal indoors… however, rafa IS capable of beating federer indoors but for that he must build some nice momentum.

        Reply

      • I’m not saying Federer is not better than Rafa indoors, of course he is; that would be like saying Rafa is not better on clay than Federer. Even Rafa himself says indoors is not his best surface and he doesn’t expect to win Basel or Paris, but that doesn’t mean that he is completely hopeless on indoor courts.

        Rafa did beat Ljubicic on indoor hard in Madrid in 2005 at the age of 19 over 5 sets despite Ljubicic serving 32 aces, so he can’t be that bad.

        Reply

  9. Ricky,

    Thanks for your comment. I try to base my opinion on results over a period of time. It doesn’t mean that Rafa can’t play on indoor courts or is horrible. I just happen to think it’s his weakest surface.

    Of course Rafa can beat Fed indoors. But as vamosrafa said so well, he has to build up momentum and be in really good form.

    Reply

  13. Basel:
    QF-
    Federer over Goffin
    Isner over Coric
    Nadal over Cilic
    Wawrinka over Gasquet
    SF-
    Federer over Isner
    Wawrinka over Nadal
    Final-
    Federer over Wawrinka

    Reply

  14. I don’t see Coric getting through to the quarterfinals to meet Isner. I am not even sure Isner is going to get there. What about Anderson?

    Reply

  19. Valencia:
    QF-
    Ferrer over Pospisil
    Muller over Tomic
    Fognini over Almagro
    Lopez over Verdasco
    SF-
    Ferrer over Muller
    Lopez over Fognini
    Final-
    Ferrer over Lopez

    Reply

  21. I don’t think the tennis channel is going to carry the doubles match. I just want to see Rafa’s singles match. That’s my main concern.

    Reply

  23. It looks like Rosol will go after any short ball that Rafa leaves hanging. But Rafa served well to hold his first service game.

    Reply

  28. Not good. If you blinked, you missed that first set. Rosol being aggressive and pouncing on any short balls, also taking away time from Rafa.

    I don’t want Rafa losing to this guy.

    Reply

    • Uh no. Rafa had a lot to do with breaking Rosol’s serve. He was putting on the pressure. No coincidence. Also Rosol got a little tight, but Rafa took full advantage.

      Reply

    • Ricky,

      Yes, I do think he’s gone right off that deep end! But Rafa had something to do with it because he’s changed his tactics and is playing much better.

      Reply

  55. Rafa could be getting more first serves on and winning more. Second serve points won is very good. Winners to UE’s is good.

    This was amazing to watch!

    Reply

  56. vamosrafa,

    Are you still there watching? Because I noticed that Rafa seemed to be blocking his ROS late in that second set. I also think he’s using the slice more often. He’s definitely changed his tactics and with some help from Rosol, it’s working.

    Reply

  68. I am going to explode! Rosol is pulling the same stunt that he did against Monfils complaining to the chair umpire that Rafa is taking too long!

    Reply

  69. That is pure gamesmanship. Rosol is trying to get himself going and also rattle Rafa. This guy is a real piece of work.

    Reply

  71. Rafa should go to the sidelines and just strum his racket like a guitar. Rosol keeps playing this game by saying that his opponents are taking too long and slowing him down. This guy’s just plain bad.

    Reply

  75. Rafa up 4-1!

    Rosol better try something else because this business of complaining to the chair umpire has gotten really old. Rafa won’t be distracted by it.

    Just keep holding Rafa and you’ve got the win!

    Reply

  79. Rosol is pulling every cheap trick in the book to rattle Rafa. They did exchange some words. It worked because Rafa lost his serve. This is just what I did not want to have happen.

    He knows what Rosol is all about. No surprises with this guy. I don’t believe it.

    Reply

  80. It appeared that Rosol was making some noises while Rafa was serving. He also had this habit of tapping his racket.

    This guy is such a pain to play!

    Reply

  88. WOO HOO! Rafa did it! Way to go!

    That was a cold handshake at the net.

    Rafa was pumped for this win!

    I am so proud of him!

    Reply

  95. Finally one of the close, tight games that Nadal is winning this year after being on the edge of loosing. What a win. It will surely give him a lot of confidence. Some of the forehands down the line from Nadal were killer shots today and reminded me of Nadal of old. Hats off for the Spaniard for not letting Rosol getting under his skin with the rackets tapping noise and the chats with the Empire. Nadal has managed to improve his game (and his first serve percentage! ) as the match carried on and he held his nerves best in the tie-break with this amazing exchange of slices rally to get his mini-break back.

    This match might be a turning point for Rafa, one of the wins he really needs to get his confidence back. Let’s see if we’re talking too soon.

    Reply

  98. Massive, massive , massive win! VAMOSSS! i had to take a train back to home so could not watch his comeback! such a great champion he is !!

    The positive impact this win could have on rafa is IMMENSE! he finally won a match he was not supposed to win ( considering how the match had gone till 5-4 second set). This is what has made rafa the champion he is today! winning matches when it appears he has lost them. He did it again today. Already a positive week this!

    TAKE THAT, Rosol!

    Reply

    • Forced to miss the match because friends arrived just as they were warming up and I felt obliged to offer them dinner. On checking the results I’m rather relieved I didn’t have to live through the cliff hanger and can now watch the replay knowing Rafa is safelty through.

      Reply

    • vamosrafa,

      Now I know why you didn’t answer my questions while the match was going on. You were on the train! I was asking if you noticed how Rafa was kind of blocking back his ROS as the match went on and also using the slice more.

      Reply

  99. Yes, it was a cliffhanger. It doesn’t get any closer than that. Rosol was serving for the match in that second set. But I think he got a little tight and Rafa started going for his shots and being aggressive. It’s like Rafa could sense the moment. This is the Rafa we all know and love.

    This is also why I have said that Rafa doesn’t have to be at his best to win. He didn’t play well at all for all of the first set and a good part of the second set. Rosol was dictating the points and it seemed that there wasn’t much Rafa could do. But once he got the break back when Rosol was serving for the match, you got the feeling that the match was turning.

    Rafa found a way to win and got the better of Rosol. despite his unsportsmanlike behavior. Really, it’s getting old with Rosol talking to distract the opponent or tapping his racket. He pulled that stuff at Wimbledon when he beat Rafa. It did work in a way, because Rafa got in a hole at 0-40 and was broken back. Rosol evened it up.

    In the TB, Rafa got himself into a hole right away by missing the first point. But he stayed close and then it was Rosol who messed up when it counted.

    This is a great win for Rafa! No question about it. He was a few points from losing the match and came back to win it!

    That’s the Rafa we all know and love! 🙂

    Reply

  100. I would tell everyone to watch this match if they have not seen it or haven’t seen all of it. I know that I am going to watch the replay for sure!

    This was so satisfying on so many levels!

    Rafa, you were a champ in this match! 🙂

    Reply

    • I didnt watch it but just watched the TB this morning (my time).

      Rosol plays with such raw power and hits his shots very flat; hes a bit like Delpo but less the consistency. Guys like Rosol, Delpo and Stan when their game is on are very difficult to deal with, unless you’re fighting fire with fire. Or, just take time away from them by taking the ball early and not letting them take control. Novak did it at Shanghai vs Delpo but it was still a tough fight.

      It’ll always be tough for Rafa (and anyone else facing such players when their game is on) so Rafa does well by fighting hard to snatch victory from defeat . Its still WIP for Rafa when he’s trying to play more aggressively. I do hope his intention is to play well inside the court most or at least half of the times during his matches. Hope he at least goes deep in the draw here. Its not an easy draw on this indoor HC – Dimi or Stak, Cilic, Stan and Fed.

      Reply

      • Rosol has lost more matches than he’s won against much lower ranked players. It was largely Rafa”s indoor rust/nerves and resultant errors and hitting short that allowed Rosol’s game being on.

        Wouldn’t happen vs Fed or Novak as they don’t play so defensively.

        That said, nothing like seeing Rafa in comeback mode.

        Reply

    • Rafa is so sweet and so humorous! I love the way he answered that first question of that on court interview : ‘i think the same way as you, you know….’ when asked how he felt when he was about to lose and on his way out of Basel and the interviewer said he and the whole crowd were thinking so. Rafa is very honest when assessing his own level and I’m loving the way he improves so much his English and can express himself so well these days.

      Reply

      • lucky,

        I agree! That’s what is so incredibly charming about Rafa. He will just agree with the interviewer that he was thinking the same thing – that he was on his way out!

        I also wholeheartedly agree about Rafa’s honesty in assessing his level and his game.

        Watching this interview, just made me smile and chuckle a bit! 🙂

        Reply

      • Lucky and hawkeye,

        I think you both make some good points about Rafa’s match with Rosol. I enjoy listening to Paul Annacone’s analysis during matches. Later in the match, especially in the latter half of the second set and the third set, that Rafa was trying to move up and stay closer to the baseline. In the first set, Rosol’s raw power was just pushing Rafa back. In one of my comment when we were previewing the match, I think it was on the Rafa fan page, I said that Rosol would come out blasting and try to push Rafa back with his raw power. But the good news is that Rafa was able to change the dynamic in the match. Those are the kind of tactical changes he has been so good at, but for most of this year just has not been able to implement.

        However, I also think hawkeye makes a good point that Rafa’s nerves and being on this kind of indoor court played a part in allowing Rosol to dictate and control the points in that first set. I kept thinking to myself – come on, Rafa, you are better than this. It was just so lopsided in the first set. I also agree that there is nothing like seeing Rafa in comeback mode. Again, this was a match he would have lost a few months ago.

        Reply

      • Rafa’s words about Rosol really said it all. It was obvious that he didn’t want to say anything really negative or mean about Rosol, but I think what he didn’t say was even more powerful. Everybody knows about him. That’s for sure!

        I think this is a huge leap for Rafa. I do not think that one match means that all is well and Rafa is back. I have never looked at it that way. Rafa’s troubles went on for too long this year and it was always going to be a process to get back. But he’s looked so much better recently in Beijing and Shanghai. The progress was there for everyone to see.

        This match was something entirely different. Rafa was a couple of points from losing the match. Yet he found a way to come back. This is the thing that he has not been able to do this year. Rafa’s greatest quality is that ferocious will to win, the refusal to lose. Today we finally saw it again. He just did not want to lose to this guy today. So he found a way to get back in the match and win. So many times we have called Rafa “Houdini”, because he is never out of a match and never more dangerous than when his back is against the wall. That’s where he was in this match. But he came back from the brink.

        This was a joy and a pleasure to see. Little by little, step by step, brick by brick, Rafa is getting himself back together.

        Welcome back, Rafa! You have been sorely missed! 🙂

        Reply

  111. Unfortunately, the tennis channel is currently showing women’s matches. I am not sure when they will switch to the men. So I have to rely on checking live scores for any of the men’s matches currently being played.

    Reply

  121. Anyone watching Fed and Kuku? I was commenting on the preview topic thread for this match. Paul Annacone and Mary Carillo are doing the commentary. Carillo’s over the top praise for anything and everything Fed does gets to be a bit much.

    It appears that Fed is taking no chances with his first match in this tournament. He won’t want another early exit.

    Reply

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