Basel and Valencia previews and predictions

This week could be better, such as if world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and 2013 Basel champion Juan Martin Del Potro were in action. Still, this is about as good as it gets when it comes to a pair of 500-point tournaments. Rafael Nadal’s comeback from a wrist injury and perseverance through appendicitis will continue in Basel, which also has Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, and Grigor Dimitrov on board. In Valencia, meanwhile, World Tour Finals contenders David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, and Andy Murray lead the way.

Swiss Indoors Basel

Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,458,610 Euros

Top seed: Roger Federer
2013 champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)

Draw analysis: The draw could not been set up better for Nadal. Perhaps likely to struggle in the early rounds since he has played only four matches since Wimbledon and just one in Shanghai (lost to Feliciano Lopez), the Spaniard will open with qualifier Simone Bolelli before possibly facing either Edouard Roger-Vasselin or qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert. It cannot get much friendlier than that. Additionally, the next highest seeds in the bottom half come with major question marks. Raonic has been dealing with a virus and was upset in Moscow by Ricardas Berankis, while a shoulder injury has plagued Ernests Gulbis throughout the fall swing. The hottest players anywhere near Nadal are No. 7 seed David Goffin and unseeded Steve Johnson; neither one can face the 14-time Grand Slam champion until the semis.

Federer, on the other, could have tough match after tough match on a projected path to the final. Up first for the 33-year-old Swiss is Gilles Muller, who may be followed on the other side of the net from Federer by Jerzy Janowicz. Neither man appears to be a huge threat the moment, but both wield big serves that can help them keep matches competitive—especially on indoor hard courts. Federer is on a quarterfinal collision course with Dimitrov, whose defense of his 2013 Stockholm title resulted in a runner-up finish to Berdych on Sunday. The host nation’s other top hope can also see trouble lurking. Wawrinka’s first-rounder will come against an in-form Mikhail Kukushkin, who pushed Djokovic to three sets in Shanghai and is coming off a semifinal showing in Moscow. Ivo Karlovic, always a nightmare to play, is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Wawrinka.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Borna Coric over (6) Ernests Gulbis. All things being equal, this would be a favorable matchup for Gulbis. Coric has played only 11 ATP-level matches in his young career and he has not yet developed any serious offensive weapons at 17 years old. Gulbis is capable of blowing him clean off a fast indoor hard court. However, all things are not likely to be equal. Coric has been resting this fall in between successes on the Challenger circuit. Gulbis, on the other hand, has somewhat inexplicably battled through four fall-swing tournaments despite an obvious shoulder problem. Coric likes changing pace, using angles, and forcing opponents to beat themselves; that could be the perfect recipe against a less-than-100 percent adversary.

Hot: Roger Federer, Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, Mikhail Kukushkin, Steve Johnson, Borna Coric

Cold: Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Ernests Gulbis, Jerzy Janowicz, Andrey Golubev

Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Vasek Pospisil, Stan Wawrinka over Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic over David Goffin, and Rafael Nadal over Teymuraz Gabashvili

Semifinals: Federer over Wawrinka and Raonic over Nadal

Final: Federer over Raonic

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Valencia Open 500

Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,496,095 Euros

Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: Mikhail Youzhny

Draw analysis: Good friends Ferrer and Murray may be getting tired of each other. But it looks like they will just have to deal with it. Having already gone head-to-head twice in the last two weeks (they split meeting in Shanghai and Vienna), the perennial World Tour Finals contenders fell in the same half of the Valencia draw and are likely to collide again in the semifinals. That’s clearly not a foregone conclusion, but the bracket sets up nicely for it. Ferrer’s nearest seed is Roberto Bautista Agut, who will have to make a quick turnaround after finishing runner-up in Moscow. Murray’s closest seed is a somewhat out-of-form Kevin Anderson. The Spaniard’s path may be slightly more difficult because he opens with Andreas Seppi before running into either countryman Fernando Verdasco or an in-form Leonardo Mayer.

With Berdych the clear-cut favorite in the bottom half while both Ferrer and Murray are up top, the draw at first glance seems to be skewed. It is evened out, however, by the fact that Lopez, John Isner, and Gilles Simon landed with Berdych. Lopez reached the Shanghai semifinals and is always dangerous indoors—especially during this time of the season. Isner may not be much of a threat to Berdych, but the 6’10’’ American would be capable of making a run to the weekend if the Czech gets upset early (unlikely given Berdych’s draw). Simon went all the way to the Shanghai title match before succumbing to Federer in two tiebreakers. The Frenchman has a virtual bye in the first round against an extremely rusty Alexandr Dolgopolov.

First-round upset alert: Philipp Kohlschreiber over (7) Kevin Anderson. Surprisingly, Anderson and Kohlschreiber have never faced each other (Anderson got a walkover when they were supposed to meet at the 2012 Indian Wells Masters). Kohlschreiber had been hobbled by a shoulder issue of late, but he looked good in Vienna and reached the semis before getting clipped by Ferrer in a third-set tiebreaker. The loss will at least give him an extra day off in advance of the Valencia Open. Anderson, meanwhile, is a modest 5-5 since reaching the Toronto quarters and 2-2 since the U.S. Open.

Hot: David Ferrer, Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, Feliciano Lopez, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gilles Simon, Leonardo Mayer, Martin Klizan

Cold: Kevin Anderson, Fernando Verdasco, Santiago Giraldo, Jurgen Melzer, Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov

Quarterfinal predictions: David Ferrer over Mikhail Youzhny, Andy Murray over Philipp Kohlschreiber, Gilles Simon over Marcel Granollers, and Tomas Berdych over John Isner

Semifinals: Murray over Ferrer and Simon over Berdych

Final: Murray over Simon

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!