Barcelona R3 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

The King of Clay has not been his normal clay-court self so far this spring.

It is it too early to press the panic button in terms of Rafael Nadal’s overall clay-court season? Yes. But what about when it comes to Thursday’s Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell third-round matchup with Kei Nishikori? Well, there is still probably no reason to panic.

Nadal lost in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals to Andrey Rublev and needed three sets to get past Ilya Ivashka and Wednesday in Barcelona, but the Spaniard has to like his chances of getting on track sooner rather than later. A significant wakeup call against Ivashka followed by a date with Nishikori may be just what the doctor ordered. Nadal should be inspired to turn in a more Nadal-like performance, and he has generally been able to do it against Nishikori. The 20-time Grand Slam champion is dominating the head-to-head series 11-2, including 5-0 on clay. They most recently faced each other at the 2019 French Open, where Nadal dominated 6-1, 6-1, 6-3.

The current world No. 3 was nowhere near as convincing against Ivashka, who is basically a clay-court novice. Nonetheless, Nadal does not sound too concerned.

“He played well,” Barcelona’s top seed said of the Belarusian. “He played at a very high level; I didn’t–especially at the beginning. And then I think I changed a little bit the way I played. I was more aggressive later, and the match changed a lot. I’m happy I [fought] hard today to be in the third round. That’s what I needed after the loss at Monte-Carlo.

“I’m sure that I’m going to have the chance to play better, and I’m going to fight for it. I have the confidence that I’m not very far [from playing well], even if the last two matches [here and in Monte-Carlo] haven’t been perfect.”

Nishikori’s recent seasons have been far from perfect. The 31-year-old from Japan is toiling away at 39th in the rankings and his combined 2020 and 2021 record stands at just 9-11. Nishikori picked up a nice 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-1 victory over clay-court specialist Cristian Garin on Wednesday, but it remains to be seen how the former world No. 4 will recover physically from a two-hour and 34-minute match. After all, Nishikori’s health is always a question mark. He preceded that result by getting the best of Guido Pella 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 after two hours and 39 minutes. That is a lot of tennis for Nishikori, and there wasn’t much to be encouraged by regarding his result against Pella.

Look for Nadal’s level to rise as Nishikori’s declines, so this should once again be one-way traffic.

Pick: Nadal in 2