Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

Rafael Nadal had been on a quarterfinal collision course with Alexander Zverev, but the Spaniard will instead go up against Hyeon Chung on Friday in Barcelona. Dominic Thiem and Yuichi Sugita are also aiming for a place in the last four.

(Q) Hyeon Chung vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Chung will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Friday. It has already been an incredible week for Chung–in fact, it has to be considered his best-ever performance at the ATP level. The 20-year-old South Korean, ranked No. 96 in the world, qualified for the main draw with victories over Ernests Gulbis and Guido Pella before taking out Denis Istomin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexander Zverev. Chung has not dropped a single set in five matches and only Gulbis has even managed to force a tiebreaker.

It is safe to say, however, that the competition level now ratchets up to a dramatic extent. Nadal is 50-3 lifetime in Barcelona with nine titles and he is 26-5 this season, including 7-0 on clay. The fifth-ranked Spaniard has maintained his fine form from Monte-Carlo–where he captured his 10th title at the tournament last week–with routine wins at the expense of Rogerio Dutra Silva and Kevin Anderson. Chung is playing arguably the best tennis of his career, but it is never easy to face Nadal–especially not for the first time and on clay.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (LL) Yuichi Sugita

Chung is not the most surprising quarterfinalist of the week. That distinction belongs to Sugita, who fell to Steven Diez in the final round of qualifying but got a lucky-loser spot in the main draw when fellow Japanese star Kei Nishikori withdrew because of a wrist injury. The rest is history; Sugita has made the most of his opportunity with defeats of Tommy Robredo, Richard Gasquet (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Pablo Carreno Busta on his way to the last eight. The world No. 91 had not played a main-draw match at the ATP level in 2017 prior to this week and he had never won a main-draw match at ATP-level on clay in his entire career.

Up next for Sugita on Friday is a first-ever meeting with Thiem. The ninth-ranked Austrian would actually qualify for London with room to spare if the season ended now, even though he has been in relatively unspectacular form. Such is the extent to which Nadal and Roger Federer have been hogging all of the available points. Thiem, a champion in Rio de Janeiro and a quarterfinalist in Indian Wells, has advanced in Barcelona with straight-set wins over Kyle Edmund and Dan Evans. Another relative clay-court novice awaits, so Thiem should once again have no significant trouble on his favorite surface.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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141 Comments on Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

  1. Rafa to beat whichever chumps are left in his half of the draw. Then to win the final in straights only dropping 5 games, unless he faces Thiem or Murray, in which case he could maybe, possibly, potentially, drop a set if he decides to take a lil’ walkabout. Rafa for 10th Barcelona.

  2. I guess ARV got a boost of confidence from his runner up result at MC. He’s giving RBA a battle.

    With Goffin out, Rafa won’t face any challenge to the final. Now it remains to be seen if Murray gets through to the final. I think only Thiem can possibly stand in his way in his part of the draw.

    I think Rafa is going to have an easy time if it with Chung. He’s done well to get this far and beat Zverev in the bargain. I can’t see this being competitive. I am cautious in predicting how many games Rafa will lose in matches, but I would be surprised if Chung does any better than Dutra Silva.

  3. Honestly, I’ve never heard of either Chung or Sugita and my friends always teasing me how I know all the top 100 players first and last names by heart. I guess not any more ?

    Good for both of them to get this far! Chung should be honored to have a chance to play for the first time the King of Clay and on the court named Rafael Nadal! That’s something to live for!

    Rafa in 2 and logically Thiem in 2…

    • Both Chung and Sugita are hard hitters playing primarily at or behind the baseline. Sugita reminds me of Nishioka, he can run. Chung too, but Rafa has more than enough tricks to handle Chung; it’s a matter of Rafa taking a few games to familiarize himself with Chung’s game.

  4. Been out of town for several days and away from internet, which I highly recommend. Unfortunately missed the MC final, but obviously Rafa is playing at quite a high level. I said at the start of MC that I would be surprised to see him win it, so was obviously wrong about that. Well done to those who called it correctly.

    I saw a bit of Chung at the AO where he took the first set from Dimitrov pretty handily. He’s obviously on form here, but hard to see him making much headway against Rafa on clay. In the other match, I’ve never seen or even heard of Sugita, so can’t make an informed call beyond the obvious.

    • I really hope we get a Rafa-Thiem final! I want to see a competitive final, and I think Thiem is the only one who is playing well enough to make it competitive. I just don’t see Murray being able to challenge any top player at the moment, let alone Rafa on clay…

      • we won’t get past Thiem though. It’s been strange with Andy. Finishing the year the way he did in 2016, and then struggling like this has been weird to say the least.The injury has played its part of course.

        • Yes, tough way to start the year for Andy. I hope he can get his mojo back. And ARV has been having his best season hasn’t he?

          • True. It’d want to see Andy playing well very soon.

            ARV is doing a great job. He is no.9 in the race ATM.

          • Yeah, ARV has worked pretty hard getting himself up there – he started looking good on the South America clay. But PCB was better at that point – now ARV is the man.

            Can’t imagine Andy being happy with himself if he loses again to ARV! I’ve never seen or remember ARV playing as well as he has. Thiem vs ARV will be good — or Andy v Thiem. I picked Thiem to the final.

    • Nny,

      Yeah, I noticed that you picked RBA over ARV. I wasn’t sure about RBA and stuck with ARV but I’m surprised he lasted this long too. RBA showed signs yesterday of starting to put it together. RBA has a deadly FLAT forehand and anticipates so well. But ARV is simply still in better shape and has a great lefty spin FH and I think a better serve than RBA. Maybe RBA is timing his peak for targeting RG. (Not that he’ll win, but… make a deep run)

      • rc,

        I actually forgot who I picked! I guess that I didn’t think ARV wound be able to duplicate what he did in MC.

    • There are still lots of talented tennis players from Spain! Not sure about next gen age group tho.

      I’t took ARV a long time to pull it all together and have enough confidence. I remember liking him when he was younger back in 2010 or 11 …but his progress sort of stopped. Not sure what the issue was.

    • No. Not terribly convincing at all from Andy

      Rushed home to watch Chung v Rafa.

      Andy brilliant just there at the very end. Out-foxed him with an off paced mixture of balls.

    • Although this match only strengthened my belief that only Thiem can potentially give Rafa trouble in the final… Murray just not convincing to me yet.

      • Matches like this will help Murray. Coming back from a set down and hanging in there when he was on the verge is losing again, can only help at this point. One can say that Andy should not have had to struggle that much, but staying tough and pulling out a win to stay alive in the tournament, is a good thing.

        Andy’s not there yet, but this is progress. Andy and Thiem should be a good one.

        • He could be! Although I will remain skeptical for now. He’s got a chance tomorrow to get a good win over a top player on clay. That would surely help his confidence. Whatever happens for him in Barcelona, I would think that by the time Madrid rolls around he will at least be playing better. He’s done really well at Madrid the last two years, so I look forward to seeing him there. I also look forward to seeing Novak back in action as the defending champ. I thought he actually played pretty well in the Goffin match in MC, just not good enough. So I’m curious to see where he’s at in Madrid. I’m also psyched to see Kyrgios back in action, particularly since the conditions at Madrid seem to fit him pretty well. I just wonder if he will be too rusty and not ready for clay? We shall see! The bottom line for me is that, outside of maybe Madrid, I don’t see anyone at a level yet where they can challenge current Rafa this clay season.

    • Even when Chung is nerous…he’s not too bad. I have yet to check Chung’s current ranking but nice to see him get this good result in an ATP main draw and out of the challenges.

      • I am impressed, because I had not heard of him until now. He came out with the right attitude, but taking on Rafa is a formidable task.

        He’s done well. On serve.

  5. Really happy with Rafa’s backhand. What a tie break! His forehand has been pretty strong too. Yes, he can do more damage with the forehand but it is getting better and better. This set could be lop-sided if he changes the patterns a bit.

    • I actually doesn’t like seeing Rafa engaging too much in long rallies. I noticed that he’s losing the longer rallies but once he went up to the net or moved up to the fore court, he won the point. I don’t understand why Rafa still insists on staying back to rally so often when he can win points playing inside the court. He’s making his life much harder if he insists on grinding it out.

      • I agree with you but I also think the king of Roland garros must be the best in long rallies as well by the time RG starts. The confidence Rafa gets after winning those long rallies is incomparable I think. And, when he goes up against Djokovic, he will be forced to play long rallies a lot of the times because of the Serb’s defence. So, it is vital that he starts winning more long rallies. It also used to create fear in the minds of his opponents so there was always pressure on them.

        I do like it when he keeps the points short though. It helps him in many ways . Right now, I am very satisfied with his game. Even the serve is getting better and better. It was encouraging to read the other day that Toni was not too satisfied with Rafa’s forehand and thought he can do more damage. Team Nadal is really in the right direction.

        • Yep, the FH is leaking more errors. It’s Ike Rafa just can’t have a complete set of tools all functioning well at the same time. When the FH is great, the BH isn’t; when the BH is great, the FH gets more error prone.

          I like Rafa to have his BHDTL functioning well by the FO, in addition to his FH, like FO2013.

        • VR, I don’t agree about playing long rallies against Djoko at RG. One has to realize and come to terms with one’s own shortcomings. Rafa can no longer has an advantage over many of is strong opponents when it comes to winning the long rallies. Whether it’s against Djoko or Murray or Stan for examples, Rafa has to learn to shorten points and beat them with his guile, his tennis acumen and court craft more than grinding them down.

          Fed has been doing that all along on the other surfaces at least, so it’s time Rafa does the same and on any surface, including clay. It will be better for his 30 or 31 year old body now and going forward, should he decide to play for a few more years.

      • This is what I’ve been saying, Lucky. Even though I think Rafa is playing at a higher level than a month ago, it’s hard to count on your legs at his age, especially against a 20 year old with legs like Chung. Plus, look at some of the volleys Nadal hit in this match. I honestly think Nadal is one of the best volleyers on tour, and I’m sure he could win many points this way if he built it into his game more.

    • Chung did well…a lot better than I thought. Rafa just played a perfect tie break.

      Chung had to get through qualifying in Barcelona.
      Amazing run for Chung.

  6. Chung is very talented and athletic. But like a lot of these young up-and-coming players, he doesn’t yet have that really competitive killer instinct that it takes to run with the big boys.

    • Killer instinct amongst the next generation is lacking. Kyrgios has some, Sascha is coming along. I’ve seen it in Pouille — a good finisher, indeed. I’m still happy Goffin got a win over Novak 😉

    • More like Chung doesn’t have the varieties like most youngsters these days. They basically hit hard, serve big and run fast. Once Rafa moves up to the net, Chung would lose the point.

  7. It’s amazing how much improved his backhand counterpunching is as compared to MC (esp the earlier rounds). For me the most important measure is how effective is ‘average groundstroke’. This means a lot more to me than him seeing a few flashy forehands DTL. His backhand average grounstroke is close to the level I would want it to be and forehand, althrough much better now, still needs improvement. The progress is quite good though 🙂

  8. Rafa’s been attempting some big CC forehands with the traditional (across the body) follow through. He missed them but I liked that he went for them, just like in practice! He surely hits them more aggressive when hit that way.

  9. I am now wishing Fed was playing this clay season! haha. Rafa would have had a great chance to stop his losing streak.

    • I was following the score online since I am not at home. I recorded the match and will watch when I get home. I was nervous as I checked on the tb score. But when I saw that Rafa won, I breathed easier. Chung did well to take it to a tb in that first set. But I had a feeling that Rafa would take control in the second set.

      From reading the comments I got a good sense of how Rafa played. Good to know he stepped it up in the to.

      Rafa could benefit from a bit of a challenge. He’s had an easy time of it, but tougher matches bring out the best in Rafa!

      He’s in the semifinals!

      • You don’t Thiem at least would have a slight chance at beating Rafa again, Ricky? What if Rafa’s level just happened to drop for whatever reason? Don’t get me wrong, I would bet on Rafa to win if they play in the final, no doubt. But “how would he not win this title” is a pretty bold question. 🙂

  10. I only saw the first set, but I was impressed with Chung, as I was at the AO. I was especially impressed that he hung in there once Rafa broke back, and he had his chance to break again at 5-5. As someone said above, Chung could build a bit more variety into his game, especially the ability and willingness to come forward once he has an advantage in the point.

    I thought Rafa played good but not great overall, and very good or great when he needed to, in the big points. As Lucky said, I thought he did best when he didn’t try to get into long rallies, but tried to take control of the point fairly early. But it was a good test for him, for sure. He’s the favourite to take the tournament, of course, but I think Murray is building with each match, and it would be interesting to see them in the final.

      • Now that I have seen the match, I can say that Rafa stepped it up big time in that tb. He just smothered Chung. I think that was basically the match. Chung didn’t seem to have the belief after losing the tb in lopsided fashion.

        I think Rafa played well enough to beat Chung. He didn’t have to be at his best. That’s why I am glad that Chung at least gave Rafa a battle in the first set. I think Rafa needed that. He hasn’t played anymore be who can challenge him. I do think that Rafa did well in raising Kia level of play when he was down 0-30 at 5-5. Chung even had a break point. But Rafa shut it down and then took over in the tb. He did what he had to do.

        Things will be different at Madrid. Rafa is bound to have a tougher draw there. Then we can see him face done challenges. I think he will be up to the task.

        • Rafa hasn’t played anyone who can challenge him. Rafa did well in raising his level of play. *

          Stupid autocorrect in my last post.

    • MA,

      Thanks for posting that! Great read! Love hearing Rafa’s thoughts about not seeing himself as a hero. Also, his outlook on continuing to play as long as he’s happy. He has his head on straight and knows what is important.
      ?

        • MA,

          I am doing just like fine! It’s been a joy watching Rafa playing so well. I hope he can keep it up!
          ?♥️?

          • Where did the word “like” come from in my last post? From autocorrect!

            Anyway, it shouldn’t be there!

          • Hahahaha Nny!!…I’m glad you’re ‘sounds’ fine and happy!!..What a great great timing that Rafa ‘choose’ this very moment to produce one of his best perfomance ever since his miserable 2 years slump….I think,this is the BEST cure for u Nny!Physically,mentally and spiritually..Best of wishes and happiness for u Nny!!..Warmest hugs and kisses from Malaysia!!

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