Barcelona and Budapest preview and predictions

Rafael Nadal won back-to-back titles last year in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona (his only two titles in 2016). He is halfway to accomplishing the same feat after triumphing in Monte-Carlo for the 10^th time in his career on Sunday. Now he moves to Barcelona, where challengers include Andy Murray, Dominic Thiem, and David Goffin, among many others. Kei Nishikori was the No. 2 seed until he withdrew because of a wrist injury.

Also taking place this week is an inaugural event in Budapest (previously held in Bucharest). Much unlike the situation in Barcelona, the Budapest title should be completely up for grabs among the likes of Lucas Pouille, Fabio Fognini, Fernando Verdasco, and Diego Schwartzman.

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,324,905 Euros

Top seed: Andy Murray
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: In previous years, a third-round showdown in Barcelona between Nadal and David Ferrer would be alarmingly too soon. That is no longer the case, as Ferrer is a shadow of his former self and mired in a prolonged slump. Nadal, on the other hand, is an outstanding 24-5 this season and back up to No. 5 in the world. Similarly, a potential quarterfinal affair between Nadal and Alexander Zverev may not be as entertaining as the name recognition suggests. After all, they just faced each other in Monte-Carlo and Nadal soured Zverev’s 20^th birthday with a 6-1, 6-1 beatdown. Philipp Kohlschreiber and Nicolas Almagro are other potential quarterfinal adversaries for the nine-time Barcelona champion.

The bottom half of the draw also features Goffin—who lost to Nadal in the Monte-Carlo semis—and Monte-Carlo quarterfinalist (and doubles champion) Pablo Cuevas. Goffin and Cuevas may have to go head-to-head in the third round, and the winner would be favored to reach the final four now that Nishikori is out.

At the top of the bracket, Murray is looking to bounce back from an early exit in Monte-Carlo at the hands of eventual runner-up Albert Ramos-Vinolas. They could square off again in this week’s quarters, but Murray may first have to get past Feliciano Lopez and Ramos-Vinolas is on a third-round collision course with Roberto Bautista Agut. Dominic Thiem has to like his draw in the second section of the top half, but an in-form Pablo Carreno Busta would be a tough matchup in the quarters.

First-round upset alert: Carlos Berlocq over (13) David Ferrer. Ferrer has finally hit the wall at 35 years old, or so it seems. The veteran Spaniard is 3-6 this season and in danger of being unseeded for the French Open with a current ranking of No. 33 in the world. Ferrer has not won a match since the Australian Open, whereas Berlocq is coming off a second-round performance in Monte-Carlo as a qualifier. Six of the Argentine’s seven ATP-level match victories in 2017 have come on clay. Moreover, Berlocq is 2-1 in the head-to-head series (all three matches on clay) after crushing Ferrer 6-4, 6-2 earlier this season in Buenos Aires.

Hot: Rafael Nadal, David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta, Pablo Cuevas, Jan-Lennard Struff, Kyle Edmund

Cold: Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, David Ferrer, Mischa Zverev, Bernard Tomic, Albert Montanes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Kevin Anderson, Karen Khachanov

Quarterfinal predictions: Andy Murray over Roberto Bautista Agut, Dominic Thiem over Pablo Carreno Busta, Rafael Nadal over Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Pablo Cuevas over Benoit Paire

Semifinals: Thiem over Murray and Nadal over Cuevas

Final: Nadal over Thiem

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Hungarian Open

Where: Budapest, Hungary
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: 482,060 Euros

Top seed: Lucas Pouille
Defending champion: Inaugural event

Draw analysis: Pouille could have used a favorable draw in Budapest after making a deep run in Monte-Carlo and dealing with an apparent back issue during a semifinal loss to Ramos-Vinolas. But that is not what he got. The top-seeded Frenchman will open against either Jiri Vesely or Marrakech champion Borna Coric and he is also in a quarter with Gilles Simon and Martin Klizan. A relatively loaded top half of the bracket also includes Fognini, Paolo Lorenzi, and Adrian Mannarino.

Schwartzman has a clay-court title to defend in Istanbul next week, but he may be able to go ahead and win another one in Budapest. The 41^st-ranked Argentine owns 12 ATP-level match victories this season and has reached three quarterfinals on the red stuff, including in Monte-Carlo (lost to Nadal 6-4, 6-4). Schwartzman could have some tricky early-round tests with Robin Haase and Federico Delbonis, but being in Ivo Karlovic’s quarter of the draw presents a big opportunity. Meanwhile, Verdasco has to like his chances of reaching at least the semifinals from a section that is also home to Viktor Troicki, Evgeny Donskoy, and Daniil Medvedev.

First-round upset alert: (LL) Evgeny Donskoy over (7) Viktor Troicki. Who is the only player to beat Roger Federer this year? That would be none other than Donskoy, who saved three match points and recovered from a 5-1 deficit in the third-set tiebreaker to stun the Swiss 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(5) in Dubai. The 98^th-ranked Russian has since disappeared aside from capturing a Challenger title, and he lost in qualifying in Marrakech, Monte-Carlo, and even in Budapest (he got a spot in the main draw thanks to Marsel Ilhan’s withdrawal). Troicki is also slumping, though, and clearly Donskoy can get super hot on any given day.

Hot: Fabio Fognini, Diego Schwartzman, Borna Coric, Daniil Medvedev

Cold: Ivo Karlovic, Gilles Simon, Martin Klizan

Semifinal predictions: Gilles Simon over Fabio Fognini and Diego Schwartzman over Fernando Verdasco

Final: Schwartzman over Simon

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!