Barcelona and Bucharest previews and predictions

Rafael Nadal will be looking to get back on track when he resumes his clay-court spring this week in Barcelona. That is exactly what Nadal managed to do in 2013, when he lost the Monte-Carlo final to Novak Djokovic then captured the Barcelona title without dropping a single set. Last year, though, he fell in the quarterfinals of both events. Nadal, Kei Nishikori, and David Ferrer will snag headlines in Barcelona, but a solid field in Bucharest includes Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, and Ivo Karlovic.

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 1,993,230 Euros
Points: 500

Top seed: Kei Nishikori
Defending champion: Kei Nishikori

Draw analysis: Nadal and Ferrer can’t seem to avoid each other in draws and now they find themselves on the same side of the Barcelona bracket. But neither Spaniard will be looking ahead to the semifinals following disastrous tournament last year. Ferrer lost his opening match to Teymuraz Gabashvili and Nadal was upset by Nicolas Almagro in the quarters. The former world No. 1 could open with Almagro this time around before a possible date with either Fabio Fognini or Fernando Verdasco in the third round. Ferrer has a much, much friendlier path. Nick Kyrgios, who suffered a foot injury in Miami, is Ferrer’s nearest seed. None of the 33-year-old’s potential quarterfinal opponents (Ernests Gulbis, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Benoit Paire) looks dangerous right now.

The top half will be somewhat forgotten, although it could feature a rematch of last season’s final (Nishikori vs. Santiago Giraldo) as early as the third round. Giraldo may be hard-pressed just to make it that far, because he is likely to face an in-form Alexandr Dolgopolov right off the bat. Dolgopolov has successfully recovered from injury, which is what Marin Cilic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are slowing trying to accomplish. Cilic, who awaits either Dominic Thiem or Victor Erstrella Burgos, is on a collision course with Tsonga for the quarterfinals.

Second-round upset alert: Alexandr Dolgopolov over (15) Santiago Giraldo. After a slow start to begin the season in the wake of a 2014 knee injury, Dolgopolov has been stellar of late. It has taken quite a lot to beat him the past few months—Milos Raonic in Indian Wells, Novak Djokovic in Miami, and Monfils in Monte-Carlo. Giraldo, of course, is not in the same tier talent-wise as any of those three opponents. The Colombian obviously likes playing in Barcelona as the defending runner-up, but the pressure that accompanies such a status could be his undoing. With so many points on the line, Giraldo is likely to struggle.

Hot: Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer, Martin Klizan, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Monaco

Cold: Rafael Nadal, Marin Cilic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Ernests Gulbis, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Fabio Fognini, Marcel Granollers, Albert Montanes

Quarterfinal predictions: Tommy Robredo over Juan Monaco, Kei Nishikori over Roberto Bautista Agut, David Ferrer over Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Rafael Nadal over Leonardo Mayer

Semifinals: Nishikori over Robredo and Nadal over Ferrer

Final: Nadal over Nishikori

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BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy

Where: Bucharest, Romania
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 426,605 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Gilles Simon
Defending champion: Grigor Dimitrov

Draw analysis: Like the bottom half in Barcelona, the top side in Bucharest is far more intriguing. Janko Tipsarevic is back for his second tournament after returning from more than a year away from tennis. The Serb will go up against a qualifier and with a win would run into Simon. Countryman Viktor Troicki is in the same quarter, while the second section includes Karlovic, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Borna Coric. Stakhovsky and Coric will do battle in arguably the most enticing first-round matchup.

Monfils has a more favorable draw in the lower have and should take care of business en route to the final. But “should” is far from “will” for the mercurial Monfils, who was once again hit-or-miss in Monte-Carlo. The Frenchman destroyed Grigor Dimitrov and upset Roger Federer only to get blown out by Tomas Berdych in the last four. Potential roadblocks for Monfils might come in the form of Simone Bolelli, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Lukas Rosol, or a red-hot Andreas Haider-Maurer.

First-round upset alert: Diego Schwartzman over (7) Jiri Vesely. Since lifting his first-ever ATP winner’s trophy in Auckland, Vesely is a horrendous 2-9. This stretch includes a seven-match losing streak that extended from the Australian Open through Miami. Vesely reached the Casablanca semifinals earlier this week, but he got clobbered by Juan Monaco in the Monte-Carlo first round. As for Schwartzman, the 2014 Challenger Tour Finals champion has struggled so far this season but is comfortable on clay and can better handle Vesely’s power on this particular surface.

Hot: Gael Monfils, Borna Coric, Diego Schwartzman, Andreas Haider-Maurer

Cold: Janko Tipsarevic, Ivan Dodig, Mikhail Youzhny

Semifinal predictions: Simon over Coric and Garcia-Lopez over Monfils

Final: Simon over Garcia-Lopez

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!