Barcelona and Bucharest previews and picks

The good news for Rafael Nadal—or bad, depending on his physical state—is that he won’t have long to rue a rare setback in Monte-Carlo. Nadal’s title defense and his subsequent bid for a ninth straight title at his most dominant tournament came up short at the hands of Novak Djokovic on Sunday, but the Spaniard will be right back in action at arguably his second best event. He has triumphed in Barcelona twice in a row and seven times in the last eight years. Nadal hasn’t lost in Barcelona since 2003, the result being a 34-match winning streak and a 35-1 lifetime record. He is joined in a strong field this time around by David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, and Nicolas Almagro.

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: It’s weird seeing Ferrer at the top of the draw as the No. 1 seed in a tournament that also includes Nadal. It just is. Of course, it hardly matters because there is no advantage to be being the top seed instead of the second seed in any tournament. As for the how the chips fell during Saturday’s ceremony, neither Nadal nor Ferrer drew a short stick.

The seven-time champion will open against one of two solid clay-courters, either Carlos Berlocq or Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Nadal’s nearest seed is the mercurial Benoit Paire, while possible quarterfinal opponents include Kei Nishikori or Jerzy Janowicz. Neither Nishikori nor Janowicz is overly comfortable on the slow stuff, so it should be smooth sailing for the world No. 5 en route to the semis. At that point Nadal could run into Berdych—who admittedly hates playing the Spaniard—or Grigor Dimitrov—who took a set off Nadal in the Monte-Carlo quarters. Berdych and Dimitrov are joined in a rough eighth of the bracket that also boasts Nikolay Davydenko and Casablanca winner Tommy Robredo.

Ferrer, meanwhile, is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Philipp Kohlschreiber and for the semis with Almagro. Kohlschreiber has endured an injury-plagued 2013, but he will have a decent chance of making some noise this week as his nearest seed is a slumping Martin Klizan. Almagro has an extremely favorable path to the last eight, although Juan Monaco is slowly finding his form so a potential Almagro-Monaco quarterfinal could be interesting. The Argentine will face a likely opener against Bernard Tomic.

First-round upset alert: Andrey Kuznetsov over Igor Sijsling. Kuznetsov was borderline dominant last season on clay at the Challenger and Futures levels, but the transition to the ATP circuit has been difficult. Sijsling has an edge in current form and he should be playing with more confidence than his opponent, but his power game is better-suited for hard courts. Because of the surface, Kuznetsov has a great chance in this one.

Second-round upset alert: Tommy Robredo over (14) Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov showed positive signs in 2012 of living up to the hype and he is really starting to do just that in 2013. The 21-year-old Bulgarian is coming off a quarterfinal finish in Monte-Carlo and he also reached the Brisbane final in January. If Dimitrov is fatigued, however, Robredo will be ready to pounce—especially on clay. The 30-year-old Spaniard’s Casablanca triumph shows that the veteran still has some tricks left up his sleeve in the latter stages of his career.

Hot: Rafael Nadal, Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno-Busta, Tommy Robredo

Cold: Martin Klizan, Fernando Verdasco, Thomaz Bellucci, Radek Stepanek, Nikolay Davydenko, Pablo Andujar

Quarterfinal predictions: David Ferrer over Albert Montanes, Nicolas Almagro over Juan Monaco, Tomas Berdych over Ernests Gulbis, and Rafael Nadal over Kei Nishikori

Semifinals: Nadal over Berdych and Ferrer over Almagro

Final: Nadal over Ferrer

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BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy

Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Top seed: Janko Tipsarevic
Defending champion: Gilles Simon

Draw analysis: For a 250-point event competing with a 500-pointer in the immediate aftermath of a Masters 1000, the BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy boasts a stellar draw. It includes Janko Tipsarevic, Gilles Simon, Andreas Seppi, and Mikhail Youzhny, who have first-round byes as the top four seeds. Also competing for what appears to be an up-for-grabs title are Fabio Fognini, Horacio Zeballos, Jarkko Nieminen, and Gael Monfils.

Fognini and Monfils have to face each other right off the bat in a loaded section of the bracket. Nieminen, a quarterfinalist in Monte-Carlo, could meet Simon in round two and the winner of that potential showdown would be on course to battle either Fognini or Monfils in the quarters. Seppi also finds himself in the bottom half of the draw. The Italian generally thrives at smaller events and he certainly does not have any unbeatable competition in his quarter.

Tipsarevic, who vowed to take some time off from tennis after an early exit in Monte-Carlo only to quickly change his mind, was not done too many favors at the draw ceremony as he tries to get on track this season. The top-seeded Serb will open against either Xavier Malisse or Santiago Giraldo before a potential quarterfinal clash against Horacio Zeballos. Before Sunday’s Monte-Carlo final, the Argentine was the only man to beat Nadal in 2013. The section second of the Bucharest draw should provide some entertainment, especially for the home crowd. It features Romanians Victor Hanescu and Adrian Ungur along with Youzhny, David Goffin, and 2012 champion Florian Mayer.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Gael Monfils over (6) Fabio Fognini. The only previous clay-court meeting between Monfils and Fognini won’t soon be forgotten. They played until darkness—and beyond—in the 2010 French Open second round before finishing the next day, when Fognini finally won the marathon 2-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 9-7. The Italian should be brimming with confidence after a surprise semifinal performance in Monte-Carlo and he has to be considered a big favorite in this one based on current form. However, Fognini will likely be fatigued and Monfils may have just enough matches under his belt (two in Houston, one in Monte-Carlo) to capitalize on the opportunity.

Hot: Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini, Marinko Matosevic, Jarkko Nieminen

Cold: Janko Tipsarevic, Florian Mayer, Viktor Troicki, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Gael Monfils

Semifinals: Horacio Zeballos over Mikhail Youzhny and Andreas Seppi over Gael Monfils

Final: Seppi over Zeballos

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