The first week of the tennis season wasted no time creating plenty of intriguing storylines heading into the women’s singles event at the Australian Open. Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka kicked things off with a title in Brisbane. At the United Cup, Coco Gauff dominated and Iga Swiatek struggled. Outside of the match court, Elena Rybakina’s coaching situation has become a circus.
Sabalenka, Gauff, Swiatek and Rybakina are the top four favorites at Melbourne Park, while 2024 Aussie runner-up and Olympic gold medalist Qinwen Zheng is also in the mix. What about former slam champions Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu plus former slam runner-ups Jasmine Paolini, Karolina Muchova, and Madison Keys? Even though Sabalenka is the oddsmakers’ choice, there are a whole bunch of realistic title contenders.
Here are my best bets on the women’s side at the 2025 Australian Open.
Coco Gauff (+450)
You have to like Gauff’s chances based on what was on display at the United Cup. The third-ranked American led the United States to its second title in three years while going 5-0 in singles. Her perfect trek through Perth and Melbourne featured straight-set victories over both Swiatek and Muchova. Dating back to the 2024 WTA Finals she is on a nine-match winning streak. Gauff is already a Grand Slam champion at 20 years old (2023 U.S. Open) and she reached the Australian Open semifinals 12 months ago, so she should be extremely confident on this stage.
Elena Rybakina (+1000)
Here’s the deal with Rybakina’s coaching setup: longtime coach Stefano Vukov has been serving a suspension handed down on him by the WTA Tour for a code of conduct violation, which led to Rybakina hiring Goran Ivanisevic. Well, the world No. 6 announced earlier this week that Vukov is going to be reinstated in time for the Aussie Open–prompting a disgruntled Ivanisevic to come out and indicate that his own coaching status is in limbo. Nonetheless, Rybakina should be in fine shape–both mentally and physically–to excel Down Under. The Kazakh played well at the United Cup, going 3-1 with a loss only to Swiatek. A former Wimbledon champion (2022) and Aussie runner-up (2023), Rybakina is unafraid of the big stage.
Emma Navarro (+5000)
It’s always good to throw a longshot into the equation at any Grand Slam–especially at the Australian Open, which has been known to produce some surprising results. And why not Navarro? The 23-year-old American’s best slam results have come in the last two–the Wimbledon quarterfinals and the U.S. Open semis. Navarro could run into Swiatek in the quarterfinals, but the good news is that Sabalenka and Gauff are on the opposite side of the draw.
who ya got?
+450 on Gauff pre-tournament seems a bit expensive for a path that might look like: Muchova > Pegula > Sabalenka > Swiatek to the championship. If one were keen to back Gauff, a money line roll over parlay would probably yield a far better payout than the +450 offered right now in the outright markets.
Additionally, Coco faces a sneaky opening match against Kenin – a player who has played her tough in the past, including a victory against Gauff under Grand Slam conditions at Wimbledon 2023. That said, under normal circumstances, Gauff would be a play on given her form and impressive victories at United Cup but she definitely got the worst of the AO draw and there are far too many landmines in her path to back her at current numbers.
Kenin is no longer a factor
but the money line rollover play could be a good one
Moneyline rollover is almost always a better option. Most times you get a better payout if they win it all. Secondly, you can back off of it if a player has an injury mid tournament or you don’t think they are performing at the level you thought. If you do a future wager you are locked in unless you try to hedge against it at some point.
yep