Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Zverev

In a second straight major there will be a Big 3-free semifinal showdown.

Following last year’s U.S. Open clash between Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev will battle in a surprising Australian Open semifinal on Friday night.

Thiem and Zverev will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers, with Thiem holding a 6-2 lead in the head-to-head series. They have faced each other three times on hard courts and the Austrian pulled ahead 2-1 in those contests with a 7-5, 6-3 victory in the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals this past fall. Both of their previous Grand Slam encounters have come at Roland Garros, where Thiem took care of business on his preferred clay-court surface in 2016 and 2018.

“We’re good friends,” the world No. 5 said. “I’m happy for him, as well, that he’s playing so [well] here. He made his breakthrough at a Grand Slam. We have no secrets from each other. We played so many times, also on very special occasions…at the ATP Finals (semis), French Open quarters. It’s a nice rivalry we have. It’s great that we add an Australian Open semifinals.”

Zverev’s 2018 French Open run marked his first quarterfinal appearance at a slam and now he is through to his first semifinal. From basically out of nowhere after struggling mightily at the ATP Cup, the seventh-ranked German has defeated Marco Cecchinato, Egor Gerasimov, Fernando Verdasco, Andrey Rublev, and Stan Wawrinka.

Whereas Zverev surrendered only one set to Wawrinka, Thiem’s trip to the last four was much tougher. The fifth seed needed five sets to get past Alex Bolt in round two and his quarterfinal against Rafael Nadal on Wednesday was a 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) thriller that lasted four hours and 10 minutes. Thiem also beat Adrian Mannarino, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils. The 26-year-old will play in his fifth major semifinal (first outside of Roland Garros) and is bidding for a third final appearance.

“(It’s) going to be a close match again,” Thiem assured. “Same if two top-10 players play each other semis of a slam. The deciding moments are very small; small margins. I’m looking forward to it. I try to regenerate as good as possible and then try to be ready 100 percent for Friday.”

Zverev will have no physical problems after cruising through five matches, but the intangibles are question marks. In addition to struggling against Thiem, he has zero experience this deep in Grand Slams.

“I’ve won Masters Series, World Tour Finals,” the seventh-ranked German noted. “But the Grand Slams were always where I kind of even wanted it too much. I was doing things in a way (that was) too professional. I was not talking to anybody. I wasn’t going out with friends. I wasn’t having dinner. I was just really almost too, too focused.

“(I) changed that a little bit this week. I’m doing much more things outside the court. I also was playing [so] bad at (the) ATP Cup that I didn’t have any expectations. I wasn’t really expecting myself in the semifinals.”

Even though Zverev has already overachieved in Melbourne and he remains an underdog, the pressure undoubtedly ratchets up in the semifinals. Thiem knows what it takes to reach a major title match and his impressive hard-court form over the past 11 months should carry him to another win over Zverev.

Pick: Thiem in 4

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67 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Zverev

  1. I hope for Thiem to win and be in the final. If Thiem is in the final, he may have the experience to beat Djoko (at the FO) to help him get his first slam title.

    I wish Thiem all the best, for I find him a pleasant person and a hard working player. After beating the big three guys so many times, it’s only right he gets to win a slam at age 26, when he’s in his prime.

    • What Lucky said. 🙂 Thiem’s pleasant and talented, strong and hard working. I’d love to see him win a slam. He’s waited long enough. Zverev has a formidable serve though when it’s on and good groundies. I think this’ll be a tough match and maybe go 5 sets.

  2. IMO Thiem would stand a better chance of beating Nole , i dont think Zverev could sustain that level over best of five sets ….

  3. Thiem in 4, if current tournament form holds true– he seems to just be playing unbelievable tennis atm. I think he holds a shot at Djokovic barring fatigue…

  4. This match looks so boring, so many Long rallies and looks so slow moving. Thiem looks lethargic, perhaps the match with Rafa took a lot out of him, he’s making so many UEs. If he continues like this, Sasha will be in the final!

  5. As I kept saying: Dominik looked better than he really was mainly due to Rafa’s poor play in key moments! Rafa’s nervousness got to him and he failed to take numerous opportunities given by Dominik which other players will accept with gratitude…Dominik stands no chance of beating Alex with such lapses let alone Nole who is the king of AO…Dominik will have to be much better in this match if he wants to win..I am not saying he can’t but will Alex let him…let’s see..,

  6. Small patches of brilliance followed by large patches of average play. This level just won’t cut against djoko. Both have to massively increase their level to take on djoko. The match is being played with lack of energy n pace

  7. Why does Thiem look so nervous? Is it because, like Rafa, he’s so eager or too eager to win this AO? Sasha looks the calmer of the two and makes fewer errors.

    I agree, looking at the way they play now, they’re not going to beat Djoko in the final.

  8. Sasha seems to be playing better so I hope he can win this quick and conserves energy for the final. Thiem really looks a bit off color, and I doubt he can pose any challenge to Djoko in the final even if he wins this SF.

    • Yep, my thoughts as as well…Don’t think Zverev is playing great at all, but Thiem just looks vulnerable and mentally weak… the last thing they want is a five setter. I still think Dominik will be more inclined to test Novak and will be fighting for ranking points and the Prize Money whereas Zverev probably never expected to reach the final anyway…

  9. Good, Thiem wins the third set, so come on now Thiem, wins the fourth set as well ASAP and stops wasting energy playing a fifth set.

    I guess Thiem is nervous because he really wants to reach a HC slam final and it’s only Sasha standing in his way now. I do feel he’s not nervous vs Rafa in the QF because he’s prepared to grind and determined to win after so many encounters. I think if he’s in the final, he’ll concentrate on the match and on beating Djoko rather than worrying about anything else. He has played against and has beaten Djoko in a slam (FO) so I think he more or less should be able to calm his nerve and plays his game.

  10. Thiem hasn’t played too well, but then he’s never been the most consistent player. Maybe he’s tired from the Nadal match (also pointing to his stomach as if he’s sick), but I think he’s also just struggling with how best to play Zverev. He knows he has more weapons from baseline, but in his haste to finish him off sometimes he is making a lot of UE’s.

    Some credit has to go to Zverev, who is consistently serving bombs and is very hard to hit through.

  11. Sasha plays like a Delpo and Thiem like a Stan, both of them are exactly the kind of players who can blow Djoko off the court; what they need is consistency, something Stan used to have when he beat Djoko at the slams.

    Thiem looks ok now physically, I guess it’s just a stomach upset or discomfort, not injury I think.

  12. Bravo Dominik! Not the best performance but maybe he is saving the best for the finals!
    I am glad Thiem wins this as I expect he will give us a more entertaining and more close match with Novak on Sunday! Zverev would have just faltered when facing Novak, he is just not aggressive enough for Novak’s amazing defense…

    • agreed. Zverev’s forehand a weak point and he loses court positioning too often. Incredible tournament for him though! Great result.

      Thiem can pull off a stan against Novak! He needs to serve amazingly well and shoe amazing mental strength.

      Novak is the clear favourite and it is his turf.

      Let’s see how it goes!

  13. Yes congrats Thiem, into the AO final for the first time! Well done!

    I hope he has a good rest, recovers and cures that stomach discomfort and be ready for the final. Come on Thiem!

  14. Thiem is such a nice guy, so sweet. Poor soul has to face Rafa the King at RG for his two FO finals and now he has to face the King of AO Djoko in the AO final.

    I think he’s young and fit and with two days rest he should be fine for the final.

  15. I couldn’t watch it live. I will see the replay this afternoon. From the score it looks like it was a battle. Zverev have a good account of himself for his first semifinal. Now that he has broken through maybe he can continue it.

    Thiem finally won me over. It’s taken a while. I never could warm up to him. But he has shown dedication, passion and commitment. Recently as many were touting Tsitsipas and Meddy, I was watching Thiem’s progress and gaining a lot of respect for him. He is like the anti-Krygios. He works hard and shows respect for his fellow players. He does not just want to be good in clay. He has improved quite a bit on hard courts. But I think he has a very difficult task to try and beat Novak where he has had the most success.

    Good luck to Thiem. I hope to see great tennis from both players.

  16. WARNING- Long post!

    I can’t overstate just how impressed I am with Thiem. It’s always great when a player has a very tangible CLIMB toward the top. He broke out with some good titles at 500 tournaments, and became a top-10 guy. Then he scored some great wins at Masters against the guy he aspires to be like (Rafa), but those wins didn’t lead to Masters titles, and then he got crushed by Rafa when he faced him at a major. He could have so easily gotten down on himself after getting so thoroughly crushed but Rafa at RG. But he didn’t- he kept working hard and pressing on.

    His next major step was his clear improvement on hard court. Although he lost that epic with Rafa at USO, that was arguably the biggest step he had taken to that point. To come so close to beating Rafa in an epic 5-setter, on a surface he had done nothing notable on to that point, that surely came him so much belief that he was not actually as far away from the top guys as he maybe thought. And then there was Indian Wells. Even though Indian Wells is a hard court that plays more like a clay court, it was so impressive when he took that huge step forward to win his first Masters title on hard court- against one of the two greatest hard court players ever.

    His next step was beating Djokovic at RG last year. He had beaten him there in 2017, but Novak was struggling then so it wasn’t the same. Novak was back to his FULL form by RG last year, and Theim beat him there. And then it was definitely another step he took by taking a set off of Rafa in the final. It wasn’t necessarily an achievement, but it was an improvement. Thiem has been so utterly blown off the court the previous times he faced Rafa at RG, so it was absolutely a step for him to make the 2019 Final more competitive.

    And then of course there was WTF a few months ago. After that, there was no longer any question that Thiem was now at least a good hard court player. After his IW title, nearly beating Rafa at USO, and then winning WTF, there was no more denying that he was at least capable of making noise at AO or USO going forward.

    Thiem’s steady rise is so impressive and so commendable. He’s not a brat like most of these other younger guys. He’s a true professional who believes in himself, and clearly believes he can beat anyone in any given day. Given the era he has had to come up in, particuarly with Novak and Rafa still being nearly unbeatable at the majors, Thiem has had to work SO hard. And I’m proud of him.

    • Thiem didn’t win the WTF, but he beat both Fed and Djoko there in the RR stage and Sasha in the SF.

      Thiem is more humble than the younger new generation guys; being two to five years older than them, he had met the big three (or four) when they’re close to their best in 2014 and was beaten by them so he knew how good they were back then and still very good even now, five years on.

      The younger ones only meet the big three when they’re already coming down from their prime and they have the chances of beating the big three here or there so they think they’re good enough to beat the big three to win big titles.

      A few beatings at the hands of the big three eg. Tsitsipas/Sasha/Meddy/ even Kyrgios beaten by Rafa made them realised how tough it is to beat the big guys esp at the slams, something Thiem would’ve already known well before these youngsters and that’s why Thiem puts in the hard yards to push himself to be better and gets closer to the level of the big three.

      I’ve to say I’m disappointed with Dimitrov, he’s talented but he’s being distracted by things outside of tennis, hence until now he hasn’t done anything at the slams despite having won a Masters and a WTF title.

      I hope Thiem remains humble and dedicated to tennis and starts winning slam(s) when he’s now in his prime (just don’t touch the FO yet, please leave it to Rafa for a little while longer!).

    • But unfortunately kevin, thiem will be destroyed by djoko in the final as expected. It will be a miracle if he manages to win a set as djokovic in the australian open final is a different beast all together. So congrats in advance to djokovic for a straight sets win in the final. There’s no point in even watching it because it’s a foregone conclusion. If only stan wawrinka made the final, djoko would be in trouble as we know djokovic fears stan because stan can beat him on any surface even if he’s playing his best. Stan is djokovic’s achilles heel.

      And before luckystar says that thiem has the firepower of stan, please thiem is no stan to djokovic and never will be. I honestly wish that thiem will surprise me and give djoko a beatdown in the final but that’s a pipe dream and as Jim said yesterday, truly its become really tiresome seeing everybody caving in to djokovic when it’s clear that if they focus they can hang with him but just cave in.

      So expect the usual djoko celebrations on sunday, oh and he becomes world number 1 again with the win.

      I too like thiem and am proud of him. As i was telling luckystar-when she was overpraising with too much hyperbole the awesomeness of medvedev, that thiem is a far better player than medvedev (medvedev couldn’t even make the quarterfinal) and this among other things proves it.

      • Come on Happy, I said it before, Medvedev’s best chances will be at the USO, not the AO, as I feel Medvedev, playing like a Djoko, so the USO slowed court suits him better.

        I still think Medvedev will be a formidable player like Djoko (May not win as many slams of course), he’s only 23, three years younger than Thiem, so give him time. I will reiterate that Meddy is a special talent and he will win many slams, may be more than Thiem!

        You’re comparing Thiem at 26/27, a more established player, to a Meddy who’s 23/24, ie three years younger, don’t you think you’re comparing an apple to an orange?

        If Meddy wins a slam before Thiem does then that’s something worrying about Thiem!

        • luckystar, I’m so sorry I didnt mean to be rude. If it came across as that i sincerely apologise. I just don’t see the big deal in medvedev and still don’t. So what he plays like djoko, dimitrov plays like fed and is labelled babyfed for that matter and where has that got him?

          It seems to me thiem is the one likely to win a slam before medvedev as thiem has reached three grandslam final. Medvedev is improving, so is everybody else among the next gen including thiem regardless of age. I just don’t see the hype.

          Playing like djokovic is nothing special. Djokovic is someone special. It’s not just his game. It’s his mental strength which medvedev doesnt have AT ALL. I honestly can’t explain how djokovic manages to consistently win matches when down match point on the opponents serve and hits outrageous HIGH RISK shots down match points not once but several times. He never gives up ever and at one point everybody was afraid to play him (2011, 2015-2016). And it’s scary because djoko is capable of replicating that form and go on another tear winning 3-4 majors. Medvedev does not show signs of that. Djoko has this aura about him that just intimidates his opponents and they lose even before playing him when he’s at his best. Medvedev is not the only one that plays like djoko. H. Chung plays exactly like djokovic too, i guess he will win multiple slams too just like medvedev.

      • So Happy, according to you Thiem has no hope against Djoko at the AO? Then do you think he has hope at the FO against Rafa?

        If Thiem can handle Rafa’s intensity on the HC, I don’t see why he has no chances against Djoko. And why would he cave in against Djoko, when he didn’t at the FO and at the WTF?

        You’re shortchanging Thiem here, and over praising Stan! Djoko not only loses to Stan at the slams but also to Thiem. Thiem may prove that he too can beat Djoko at the slams on non clay surfaces, if not here at the AO, he may at the USO.

  17. “Dimitrov….talented but” That should be engraved on his tombstone.

    Just finished watching my recording of Thiem-Zverev. Interesting match, glad Thiem won! Hope he recovers well for the final – Djoker will NOT be merciful. Good job by AZ too, he really served very well. Work to do still on his rallies. He’s made good progress with his physical conditioning. At 22 he should still have more strength coming.

    Doubt Thiem will have enough left to take Djoker down. ND has been coasting through the tournament. Not always the best prep tho. We’ll see.

    PLEASE Rafa, stay healthy for the clay court season this year! They’re coming for you, King.

  18. It is a bit odd comparing meddy and Dom like this. Dom will be 27 this year and it is Meddy who.first got to a hard court slam final getting to 5 sets!
    My post seems to have jumped down the thread: it was in response to Happy and lucky.ie agreeing with lucky!

    • Exactly Amy, thank you!

      This Happy is quite rude, brushing aside others opinions and talk as if his opinion is the correct one. Comparing Thiem at 26 to Meddy at 23 is like comparing Fed at 26 to a Djoko when he’s at 23, ie they are at different stages of their career.

      I’ll bet that when Meddy is at age 26, he’ll be a far more established player on the HCs than Thiem at 26 is, Meddy has already won 2 HC masters at age 23 and made a HC slam final, whilst Thiem makes his first HC slam final at age 26!

  19. Thiem has not put in the hours of work n does not have a 7 2 vs big 3 last year just to get his ass whipped in the final. He will fight his best ..that much I’m sure..he will in all likelihood loose but he will put up a fight. Just control those unforced errors that’s it n don’t go for the lines always..keep some margins

  20. My posts are not showing. I apologise if they somehow appear multiple times because I have sent them several times now and they are not showing. So let me see if this one will show.

  21. I have lost my long post that I sent in reply to luckystar and I sent it many many times and it didnt appear. Can’t write another one again.

  22. Luckystar, I’m so sorry I didn’t mean to be rude. If it came across as that I sincerely apologise. I just don’t see the big deal with medvedev. Some people were even saying last year ending that he will win the australian open this year and I didn’t see any evidence that that will happen.

  23. Medvedev playing like djokovic is nothing special. I’m not a fan of Djokovic but I highly respect him for what he’s achieved in the era of fed and rafa especially considering he was losing to them easily in the early stages everywhere.

    Djoko is more than his game. He’s mental strength is second to none. I still cant understand how he saved all those match points consistently against fed in multiple matches at the US open and wimbledon. He never gives up if he’s not injured. When he’s at his best he’s scarily good and can go on a tear in all surfaces winning four slams in a row on every surface. Medvedev doesnt have that, improvement or not, young or not. djoko has this aura about him that when he’s at his best he’s able to intimidate his opponent and they lose to him before even playing the match (2011, 2015-2016). And he can still replicate that form and go on another tear. I hope not though

    Medvedev is not the only person that plays like djoko, H.chung plays exactly like djoko so I guess he will win multiple slams like medvedev and is a rare talent.

  24. Luckystar and sanju, Last year I had high hopes that rafa will beat djoko in the final especially considering the great tennis rafa was playing up to the final with excellent serving. Only to watch in horror as djoko humiliated rafa in the final. And please don’t tell me he hadn’t played any match before the australian open or was coming back from injury. If that’s so, he had no business getting to the final in the first place. He was playing great tennis prior to the final, period.

    So I am not going to have another high hope of thiem causing an upset here where there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that. Djoko is a beast in the australian open final. He’s ALMOST as lethal as rafa is at the french open FINAL

    Thiem may win a set and thats it. Even if it gets to 5 sets, djoko will still win bc he is relentless on this surface, australian open 2012 final comes to mind where he looked like he’s about to drop dead on the court and still won.

  25. Again, H.chung not only plays exactly like djoko but he beat djokovic in straight sets at the australian open (a rare feat). He’s young too and can definitely improve tremendously. Why hasn’t he done anything of note since then?

  26. Dmitrov plays like fed and has been labelled baby fed and has been playing like that since he was very young. Where has that got him?

    This is just my humble opinion. Apologies for the many posts. Wrote a long post and lost it so had to break it down in many parts.

  27. Happy, are you serious? You’re comparing Chung to Medvedev?

    What has Chung achieved? Has he won Masters, ranked inside top ten, reaches a slam final, qualifies for the WTF?

    Chung is same age as Medvedev and what he has won of note so far is the very first Next Gen title in 2017.

    If you think that everyone who plays like Djoko means they’re equally talented then you’re wrong. Chung and Medvedev are not the only players who play like Djoko, Coric too tries to play like Djoko, and Coric was ranked no. 1 junior during his junior days.

    What happen then to Chung and Coric; why they couldn’t achieve what Medvedev has achieved so far? I would say injuries – both Chung and Coric are injury prone, and at their young age, they already suffered many injuries. And, playing Djoko’s style of tennis, one needs to grind as you need to do lots of incredible gets to get one more ball over the net to your opponent.

    Why Medvedev is spared the injury so far? Because he trains hard before shooting to prominence; he prefers to take his time to work on every part of his game. He has a major weapon that Chung and Coric don’t have, and that is a great serve.

    Moreover, Medvedev is one guy who believes in his own abilities, he has mental strength and is gutsy too, willing to take risk when required (and that’s how he beat Djoko at Cincy Masters last year) , never gives up and keeps digging deep (and that’s why he could extend Rafa to five sets at the USO final last year).

    Hes not just a ‘grinder’ but has weapons and a good tennis brain and that’s why he’s able to mix in varieties into his game – rushes the net when necessary and not just staying at the baseline all the time. He has a powerful FH and a good DHBH too, very quick and light footed around the court despite his 6ft6in height.

    He has mental strength and is physically fit, has the skills set and the desire to excel, and on top of all that, a good tennis brain. With all these qualities, I don’t see why he couldn’t excel and has great achievements in tennis if he continues to work hard to get them.

    • I have to agree with lucky. Chung is nowhere near Meddy. Not even close.

      Oh and it was a big deal that Rafa came into the AO without any preparation last year! You don’t see Rafa get blown out like that in a slam even by Novak. What about their semifinal match at Wimbledon? The infamous one that had to be played over two dats with the stupid roof on the second day. That was a close match that turned on a few points.

      While I am not completely sold on Meddy at this time, I have to give him his due fir his achievements in the latter part of 2019. The way he battled back from two sets down against Rafa at last year’s USO, showed grit and toughness. He deserves recognition for that performance in his first slam. He has a lot going for him.

  28. As for Rafa being disappointing in the 2019 AO final after not losing a set to reach the final, Rafa himself had already explained why.

    Djoko at the AO finals – well not everything was smooth sailing in his seven finals, he needed to grind in some of them too. Not forgetting all those years in the finals, he’s beating guys of his own generation, basically Rafa and Murray.

    Thiem is a few years younger and belongs to the next generation; he’s very fit hence he could go toe to toe with Rafa and his intensity for 4 hours without relenting. Thiem could produce some incredibly powerful and penetrating shots that are hard to defend against, and he could do that over four hours. He’s also quick and has incredible retrieving abilities and has good hands at the net.

    I don’t see Djoko beating him comfortably, it’ll be a grinding affair imo, and Thiem will have his chances and I hope he could take them when they arise.

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