Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Djokovic

The potential gauntlet of the world No. 3, No. 2, and No. 1 standing between Novak Djokovic and his 25th Grand Slam title began with Carlos Alcaraz on Tuesday. It continues with Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open on Friday.

While Alcaraz is Djokovic’s biggest rival at the moment, Zverev has been among Djokovic’s most familiar foes for almost a decade. The head-to-head series stands at 8-4 in favor of the Serb, including 5-1 on outdoor hard courts. However, they faced each other only once since 2021–when Djokovic prevailed 7-6(5), 7-5 in the 2023 Cincinnati semifinals. They have squared off three times at majors and the 37-year-old has won all three, including a 6-7(6), 6-2, 6-4, 7-6(6) victory in the 2021 Aussie Open quarters.

Their past history clearly gives an edge to Djokovic, and so does current form. The world No. 7 underwhelmed against Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria in rounds one and two, respectively, but he raised his level in wins over Tomas Machec, Jiri Lehecka, and Alcaraz. Djokovic seemed to struggle with a groin injury during the first half of his match against Alcaraz but showed no signs of it the rest of the way en route to a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 triumph.


Zverev kicked off his latest bid for an elusive major title with mostly routine defeats of Lucas Pouille, Pedro Martinez, Jake Fearnley, and Ugo Humbert. The second seed then ran into an in-form Tommy Paul on Tuesday afternoon and prevailed 7-6(1), 7-6(0), 2-6, 6-1. A much more aggressive Paul took it to a passive Zverev for three consecutive sets but failed to serve out each of the first two before the German dominated the ensuing tiebreakers. Zverev finally became the better player in the fourth, but overall it was not a convincing performance.

Even though Zverev may be the underdog, all the pressure is on him in his quest to win a Grand Slam. It does not help that he is facing an opponent who has owned him at slams and on outdoor hard courts. Moreover, Djokovic is 99-9 all time at Melbourne Park with 10 titles.

Unless Djokovic is compromised physically (and there is no reason to think he is following his win over Alcaraz), he should have the upper hand.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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38 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Djokovic

  1. Djokovic will beat Zevrev, even Carlos or Sinner is not as difficult as it really looks in the media, they both can defeat Djokovic but not always and, it won’t be a cakewalk, as we are made to think in the media. If Federer returns, they will say Federer has 60% chance of winning against Carlos or Sinner, when it comes to Djokovic it will be 6%

  2. Zverev overcame his weakness the serve… but Coco overcame hers the forehand/ serve but when push came to shove look what happened to her …

  3. You’d be surprised how many players simply can’t rally with 37 yr old Djokovic. It’s like watching B-grade tennis.

    Alcaraz looked like he was hitting the ball in slow motion. No power whatsoever.

    Serve was a joke
    Groundstrokes had no power and we’re a joke.
    Won the occasional point from a dropshot or from wrong-footing but never from power.
    Mentally fragile. Djokovic made noises mid-point and Alcaraz nearly had two swings at the next shot.

    It’s just not good enough.

  4. I’m not sure Alcaraz thought about his advantages for a second during that match.

    If someone tells you are young and will have a bright future, that’s all you’ll ever be to them.

    Djokovic was telling Federer at the same age, I’m going to be number one and better than you.

    Let that sink in.

    • Alcaraz just isnt as good on fast hard court , as he is on natural surfaces .
      Even so ,Djokovic at his best is still the best hardcourt player ever.

  5. Novak has done injury drama so many times that when he actually has an injury he gets no sympathy………..I mean he was playing so well against Zverev, that set could have gone either way, he showed no signs of injury, and after fluffing the overhead, which is usually an issue for him, he calls it quits!!! Everyone was surprised that he retired bcoz the level of play was so high!!!!! It’s just mind boggling and is these types of situations that cause one to have unfavorable feelings towards Novak.

  6. I reckon it had something to do with that blue Joe’s Mechanics shirt he was wearing. Usually he would change his shirt after losing a set but he was loving that shirt so much he just couldn’t do it.

  7. I can see that Fedal fans are still hurting that Nole left their favourites in the dust , literally so, undisputed GOAT, cope it, “have a gooood night”.💪👋🏻

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