Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Shelton

Can anyone stop the current freight train that is Jannik Sinner?

Nobody has come close so far at the Australian Open, and now it is another massive underdog in Ben Shelton who stands in Sinner’s way of a return trip to the final at Melbourne Park.

The defending champion’s fortnight has been utterly routine aside from brief heat-related issues suffered during a four-set win over Holger Rune in the fourth round. Sinner also dropped a set to Tristan Schoolkate in round two, but he otherwise cruised past Nicolas Jarry, Marcos Giron, and Alex de Minaur en route to the semis. The Italian destroyed De Minaur 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 on Wednesday night, improving to 10-0 in their head-to-head series and 23-1 in total sets.

Of course, there is nothing to take away from such a result against De Minaur. That is simply a horrendous and hopeless matchup for the Aussie. Shelton, on the other hand, is a much different opponent who not only has the power game but also the belief that is necessary to compete with Sinner.

Shelton’s head-to-head isn’t great with the world No. 1 (whose is?!?!), but it’s far from demoralizing. The American is 1-4 all time with a 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) victory at the 2023 Shanghai Masters followed by a 7-6(2), 7-5 loss three weeks later in Vienna and a trio of setbacks in 2024. They have played a tiebreaker in all five of their meetings, including an 11-9 decision in Sinner’s favor in the third set of their Wimbledon showdown last summer. They most recently squared off this past fall in Shanghai, where the top seed prevailed 6-4, 7-6(1).

Shelton has earned another shot at Sinner by taking out Brandon Nakashima, Pablo Carreno Busta, Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, and Lorenzo Sonego. The world No. 20 has not played a single easy match, but at the same time he has crucially conserved at least some energy by avoiding any five-setters. Playing in his third Grand Slam quarterfinal on Wednesday afternoon, Shelton held off Sonego 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(4) to reach his second slam semi (2023 U.S. Open, lost to Novak Djokovic).

Shelton’s big-serving and general huge-hitting style of play in addition to his love for the big stage are factors in his potential ability to trouble Sinner on Friday. Unfortunately for the underdog, this is the best player in the world we are talking about. Since losing to Shelton two years ago in Shanghai, Sinner is an unbelievable 91-7–a stretch that includes major titles last season in Melbourne and New York.

Shelton almost certainly won’t be a pushover; he can force a tiebreaker and maybe even two. In the end, though, Sinner’s impeccable return of serve, baseline defense, and overall all-court game should wear down an opponent who has spent 14 hours and 55 minutes on court at this event.

Pick: Sinner in 3