Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Karatsev

It will be the No. 1 player in the world against the No. 114 player in the world in a Grand Slam semifinal when Novak Djokovic and…wait for it…Aslan Karatsev collide at the Australian Open on Thursday night.

Karatsev’s run has come completely out of nowhere. In fact, the 27-year-old had never competed in a single major main draw prior to this fortnight. Ranked well outside the top 100, Karatsev had to quality last month in Doha–where he did so successfully after going three sets with Brandon Nakashima in the very first round.

Karatsev has only gotten better and better since arriving in Melbourne. Perhaps inspired by having a front-row seat to see Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev lead Russia to the ATP Cup title two weeks ago, the no name-turned-household name is playing by far the best tennis of his career. He did not drop a single set while beating Gianluca Mager, Egor Gerasimov (6-0, 6-1, 6-0), and Diego Schwartzman before coming back from two sets down to upset Felix Auger-Aliassime. Karatsev then ousted a hobbled Grigor Dimitrov 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in the quarterfinals.

Aslan Karatsev

“It’s amazing that I passed to semifinal from qualification,” he said. “I’m just trying to enjoy the moment and not thinking about that too much.”

Karatsev probably shouldn’t think about the enormity of Thursday’s moment, especially considering that it’s Djokovic on the other side of the net. After all, on paper this is one of the biggest mismatches in slam semifinal history. In addition to being No. 1 in the world, Djokovic is a 17-time Grand Slam champion–including eight at the Aussie Open. The Serb has not been 100 percent at this event due to an abdominal injury, but he has nonetheless passed every test. Djokovic did not look hampered during four-set wins over Milos Raonic and Alexander Zverev in the fourth round and quarters, respectively.

Karatsev started slow against both Auger-Aliassime and Dimitrov, who for various reasons let him off the hook. Djokovic won’t be so kind. Even if the top seed is not 100 percent (which is unlikely), this should be one-way traffic from start to finish.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 with no tiebreakers

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21 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Karatsev

  1. Would this be the biggest upset ever at a slam SF or final? Karatsev has been hitting the hardest FH, BH, and (I think) 3rd fastest serve at the AO. That’s hard to beat when the shots land in. Not saying it’s going to happen, but this could be closer than people think.

  2. This is an amazing story and yet people continue to treat it as Karatsev is a fluke. This won’t be nearly as easy as too many seem to think it will be.

  3. Quite a boring match; no problem at all for Djoko! This qualifier is too good for the others in the draw but not for Djoko, especially when it’s the first time he’s playing against Djoko. Djoko is not the king of the AO for nothing, even though he may not be at his best.

    It’s the luck of the draw, had Djoko had Tsitsipas followed by Medvedev, he would’ve struggled a bit more playing against them. Thiem or even Dimi/Schwartzman ought to be the ones giving Djoko some tests in the SF, but too bad they’re all gone too soon.

    Let’s see if Tsitsipas or Medvedev could give Djoko any problem on Sunday, after their own battle in the SF.

  4. I didn’t think the match was boring, but Karatsev couldn’t quite bring enough to the table to equalize at the key moments. Actually, I thought he more than held his own from the baseline. Novak’s biggest advantages were on the serve (especially on the big points like facing break point) and return; that was the difference. If Karatsev had served better and especially hit his 1st serve in more consistently, this would have been a much closer match. Anyway, congratulations to both players!

  5. the match wasn’t boring at all. karatsev is a fine player and hopefully we get to watch his progress towards higher tennis echelons, however djokovic is a bit too much for him now. as whether tsitsipas or medvedev were in the novak’s half excuse – this is just a butthurt statement, and not classy at all. thiem was in the novak’s half, a tennis player who sent nadal packing home at the ao 2020.

    • Excuse me, this is 2021, not 2020!

      Thiem was not playing well hence he was sent packing in straight sets by Dimi, whom himself had to retire against Karatsev in the next match!

      You want to think highly of Karatsev that’s your choice, but I knew for sure he’s no match for a subpar Djoko, not even getting a set! This has nothing to do with any butthurt; I’m simply telling the truth. Karatsev simply was no match for Djoko, even a subpar one; had Djoko been at 100%, he would’ve sent Karatsev packing much earlier!

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