Australian Open SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

January 29, 2015 Ricky Dimon Match previews 129

Djoker wins 2The rematch of the rematch is upon us. Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will be facing each other in a third consecutive Australian Open when they collide during semifinal action Friday. The winner will battle either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych for the title.

Heading into Friday’s Australian Open semifinal, the head-to-head series between Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka is such that the matchup cannot really be called a rivalry. But at this particular tournament, it’s right up there with Ali vs. Frazier, or Duke vs. North Carolina, or Red Sox vs. Yankees.

In the fourth round two years ago, Djokovic outlasted Wawrinka 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 in an epic thriller that was widely regarded as the best match of the year. If the quarterfinal rematch 12 months later did not quite produce the same quality, it still more than lived up to the hype. That time around it was Wawrinka who emerged victorious, upsetting the Serb 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 9-7 en route to his first-ever Grand Slam title.

Overall, though, Djokovic boasts a record of 16-3 at the expense of his familiar foe. They have squared off 13 times on hard courts, with Djokovic holding an 11-2 edge in those meetings. The world No. 1 has won three of their four Grand Slam encounters, having also prevailed at the U.S. Open in both 2012 (via third-set retirement) and 2013 (in five sets).

While generally stellar at most other tournaments, it is almost as if Djokovic and Wawrinka reach another gear Down Under. Djokovic is already a four-time champion of this event and he has been so far above his competition this fortnight that he has not exactly been required to showcase his ‘A’ game. The top seed booked his spot in the last four without dropping a set as he disposed of Aljaz Bedene, Andrey Kuznetsov, Fernando Verdasco, Gilles Muller, and Milos Raonic.

Wawrinka was uninspiring in victories over Marsel Ilhan, Marius Copil, Jarkko Nieminen, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but a steep step up in competition level seemed to be just what the doctor ordered on Wednesday. The fourth-ranked Swiss avenged a five-set quarterfinal loss at the 2014 U.S. Open by overwhelming Kei Nishikori 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(6). Against Nishikori, Wawrinka fired 20 aces, held 15 of 16 service games, and finished +12 in the winners-to-errors department.

“I think for sure it will be funny to play him again,” the defending champ said of Djokovic. “I will be happy to play him three straight years in a row. We had some crazy [matches] in the Grand Slams in the past. When you play Novak, especially in (the) semifinals in a Grand Slam, you have to play your best game. You have to play your best tennis if you want to push him. So far I’m playing great.”

Djokovic will force Wawrinka to play even better in this one. Whereas only one of Wawrinka’s first five opponents is known for playing great defense and consistent offense at the same time, Djokovic is arguably the best in the business in both departments. The top seed can use his athletic defensive abilities to withstand Wawrinka’s barrages of power and he has committed a combined total of just 33 unforced errors in his last two matches.

Another epic is possible, but it might be too much to ask.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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129 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

  1. Going for Djokovic in 5. Want Wawrinka to win but I expect Djokovic will have just enough. It will go 5 sets because they are playing in Australia

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  3. I did not see Wawa playing this year at all and that is mainly why I was somewhat surprised that he dispatched Kei easily…I did watch some of Kei’s matches though and thought he was playing well…anyway, I don’t know if Wawa is at all near his level of last year and if he is he will certainly trouble Nole…however, I don’t see him beating Nole again…Nole is well rested, had no long or demanding matches…he really walked into semis this year without even breaking a sweat…he wasn’t even tested which may not be an advantage though…

    I would LOVE this match to go to five sets and for us to witness another long rallies with two fellows losing their breaths and outsmarting each other constantly…but I am afraid we will have to wait for the finals to enjoy such a show …

    I say Novak in 4…

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  5. One thing’s for sure: the champion is going to be a previous Grand Slam winner in both the men’s and women’s events. The only possible novelty is a Murray win, as he is the only singles player left in either draw who has never won in Melbourne. No man has ever won the Australian Open title having lost his first three finals there. He has history galore to make, and good luck to him.

    The Novrinka matches have been the best in the men’s draw in Oz these past two years – which, dare I say, is exactly why I don’t hold out much hope of another classic tomorrow. Three in a row is probably too much to ask. I have no strong view on the likely outcome. Both are proven champions here. Only hindsight will justify the predictions.

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  7. Oh I forgot that at the AO the semis are on different days.

    I guess that I won’t be up to see this one live. Too bad, because it should be a good one.

    Thanks for the info.

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    • Expect to awake to headlines like ‘Djokovic reasserts his dominance’. Just the way I’d like expectations on him to be built up before the final 😉

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  11. for most part, djokovic has not gone for too much . he is letting wawrinka end long rallies with mistakes. He will adjust if this does not work but so far it has worked okay

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  13. so plan A has worked. Playing with good spin, high margins and kicking it high up to stan’s backhand… djokovic takes the set but if stan can curtail the errors, he can make things a lot more interesting

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  17. there you go ! wawrinka improves the consistency of his hitting and djokovic’s plan A fell short there! he put a lot of pressure there and djokovic crumbled.

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  18. In my view stan should use his backhand slice more. He only uses it as a defensive shot but using it as an offensive or even neutralizing shot would work really good for his game. DJokovic definitely has the tendency to give attackable balls in response to slice backhands…stan should do that and unleash his backhand DTL

    WOW, massive backhand DTL at deuce! stan’s, not federer’s backhand is the most beautiful to watch one-handed backhand in the game. And it is by the most destructive single handed backhand in the game..a lot more than gasquet’s

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  19. wow, beautiful set by Wawa…he may make this match interesting after all…he is pushing Nole to play his best tennis and Nole hasn’t really gone that far this whole tourney…let’s see how Novak responds now…

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  20. Wo-ho 🙂 Bang goes my predo. And delightfully so, too. Just stay out there as long as you possibly can guys … wouldn’t want you too fresh for Sunday 🙂

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  21. Wilander ‘ the crowd is definitely behinf wawrinka here. happens to the number no.1 player unless you are roger federer’ ….*pause of about 3-4 sec* … the other commentator ‘ to be fair, rafa too! he is so much loved’ ….. *silence * hahahaha

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    • Same thing happened in the studio when Virginia Wade said Djoko is longing to be popular but will never achieve the popularity of Federer and the presenter Rob Burnett said “and Nadal”.

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  22. wawrinka has a very clear , and simple, plan in his mind . It’s about implementation.

    and here we go, djokovic’s brilliant defensive skills doing the damage

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  30. LOL..this is so like their previous matches here in australia…. momentum swings.

    I think djkovic has not been able to get a grip on the match so far. Wawrinka’s level has been up and down and he really has been able to dictate play when his striking is consistent.

    Djokovic also not returning wawrinka’s kick serve as well as he is capable of doing

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  31. I guess this is the peril of coasting through the initial stages of the tournament. If Djoko gets through this one, I expect him to be battle hardened in the final

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  32. you know what…I think Wawa simply has no fears when playing Novak…his level varies but he still believes in wining this…that’s good to see…

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    • haha…I had planned to take a day off yesterday but rafa could not make it …so took it today. I must say this match’s quality has been bad ! not even okay-ish.

      stan won more points on his second serve in the third set than on his first serve!!! 8/17 on first and 10/16 on second. He has a big first serve so gotta utilize effectively.

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  36. Wawrinka jas just given up…trust me….djokovic in 4 and if it goes to 5th, trust me the winner would be wawrinka….I amn damn sure about it…

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  37. After breaking bad, Wawrinka was favorite to win the 3rd set, but Djokovic got lucky….How sloppy it is to loose a game the way wawrinka lost.

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  44. stan the man! and djokovic had ZERO winners and 14 UE in set 4….ZERO winners, i say that again, ZERO WINNERS. unheard of! how bad can this match get?

    I hope the 5th set is epic and it eclipses the painful experience this match has been so far

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  45. Its incredibly funny both are in 5th sets, and neither of them have shown a single settlement in the whole match. Now, I am bracing myself for my 5th set prediction? @Vamosrafa who would win 5th set? What do you think? @Ricky Dimon what do you say?

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    • this was such a disappointment…but I did see it coming…I predict a real showdown in the finals and it seems it will happen…Novak will have to raise his level to beat Andy…

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  51. 27 winners by djokovic in 5 sets… around 5 winners per set is the average… hmmm..

    winners UE aside, this was a terrible match by all accounts.

    so Murray vs Djokovic it is!

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  53. Google translate this article, says Novak is suffering from blisters and that accounts for this lackluster showing in the semi;

    http://sport.blic.rs/Tenis/266853/Sa-OVAKVIM-zuljevima-je-Novak-igrao-polufinale-sa-Vavrinkom-FOTO

    My blazing argument with @Luckystar last year started after she blaming Uncle Toni’s preparation methods for Rafa suffering blisters in the Australian Open last year. Her argument was Rafa’s preparation for the Slam were not as good as Novak’s, that is why Novak did not suffer from such pesky nuisances as blisters at important tournaments.

    Well, colour me “surprised”, because Novak is suffering from the same pesky malady it would appear. Maybe Boris stole Uncle T’s preparation methods?? 🙁

    But I understand, what self-respecting Rafan does not want a second career Slam for Rafa?

    Seriously though, I hope this is nothing serious and Novak can put on a show on Sunday so we have a final to remember.

    Vamos Muzza!

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  54. I kept waking up and checking the score in the match. The last I remember it was Novak up 3-1 in the third set. I figured this one would go the distance and went back to sleep.

    I will definitely watch the replay today. But from reading the comments, it sounds like neither guy was on his game. I am not counting out Novak in the final, blisters or no blisters, but Andy is looking really good.

    I will have more to say after I see the match, but I think Andy has a shot at winning this. I felt that way even before Novak’s semifinal match.

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  55. Dearie me…………….the annual, gushing “Djokovic for Calendar Slam” chorus begins:

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/01/it-begins-novak-djokovics-incredible-opportunity-oz/53861/#.VMun8k39nIU

    “The clear-cut No. 1 has an opportunity to widen the gap between himself and the field over the next few days. But from a macro level, Djokovic has a chance to enter an entirely new plane of tennis excellence in 2015. He has seven major titles to his name; in his prime and just 27, this season should yield more. Think big: Djokovic can near double digits in the major count, and is even good enough to win the Grand Slam if things go his way—the calendar-year Slam, not just the career Slam.”

    Good luck, Novak.

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  56. Ricky, we know you are rooting for Djokovic but c’mon…………you could at least give Muzza a chance in your poll. I actually think Muzza will win, in 4, for real, and your poll does not even have him as a possible winner!

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  57. The only reason I can think of Wawa giving so much of trouble to Nole recently is because of his aggressive gameplay. Nole has struggled against players who always look for ways to attack the ball rather than engaging in baseline rallies. Nole, at times seems short at finding the right balance between attack and defense against such players.

    Looking towards the final, Muzza has been good, but he always has looked that way at AO till he runs into Nole or Fed!
    Nole was really good in his previous matches. He also seems to have improved his net game and his serve (today’s game was an aberration).
    Murray will have to play aggressively to have any chances of winning. Will have to serve high % of 1st serves as well, can’t really afford to give much of a look at his 2nd serves to Nole.

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    • “Nole was really good in his previous matches.”

      Yes, playing Bedene, Kuznetsov, Verdasco, Muller, Raonic, all paragons of all-court tennis……….

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      • As if Muzz had to play some real all courters.
        The only good opponent Muzz played was Dimitrov (that was the best match in terms of quality).
        Nole was tested on his baseline game by Verdasco, and his returns against Muller and Raonic. He himself has been serving pretty well. One bad day doesn’t discount somebody’s overall game.
        If Nole has not played better than Muzz, he has still played on par with him and I will give him the credit for that.

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    • @abhirf,

      I don’t agree with your assessment of Murray. This year I think he has looked much more like his old self before the back surgery. His fitness and stamina has improved over last year. His movement has also been so much better.

      I do not think that Novak was tested in his previous matches. Raonic couldn’t offer up much of a battle. I don’t think Verdasco at this point in his career is going to test anybody, much less Novak. Stan has always been a tough matchup for Novak because he’s got an aggressive game, great serve, outstanding one handed backhand and can take the ball early. I think that Novak struggled in that semifinal match because his previous opponents have not been able to challenge him. They had no real weapons to make it seem like the result was ever in doubt. But Stan is a whole other thing entirely. They have had these marathon battles a few times. Stan puts pressure on Novak in a way that few other players can, with the exception of the other top guys like Rafa, Fed and Murray.

      I think this time the match will be competitive. I think now Murray is fit enough to hang with Novak. I do not think it is a given that Novak will win this match. He will go in as the favorite, but he still has to win it on the court. I think Murray knows what he has to do to win and will be ready.

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  59. I think Murray has a real shot at the win. He’s looked more like himself throughout the tournament. I think he had a great win against Dimitrov. That was never going to be easy. Of course, Dimitrov helped it along by choking away the fourth set. Murray’s found his game again. We know that Novak and Murray had their own rivalry going before the back surgery. I think we are going to see the kind of match this time that we have seen from these two in the past.

    Novak is going to have to play better than he did against Stan. I am sure he knows that. One can assume that he will raise his level of play for the final. Murray will have to continue what he is doing and also up the ante by bringing his best. I think we should be in for a great final.

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  60. I would like Murray to get the W considering he would also then be one slam away from a career grand slam. But at the same time Djoko owns the court here and I still do not think Murray is ready to take the battle to Djoko on his favorite court. A few sets may be competitive like their 2013 final but Djoko should eke out the win in the end.

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  61. I think Muzza is back to his pre-op form, which is a good thing. If that is indeed the case, he has the game to beat Djokovic.

    My only concern regarding Muzza is his mental strength. Until proven otherwise, I would say Djokovic has the edge in that department.

    Muzza showed he can still be distracted in his match against Berdy. I worry about that. Djokovic also is susceptible to distractions. I just think this is an area Muzza needs to tighten up.

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  62. I think Murray has more sides to his game and it’s more colourful and exciting to watch. Djoker’s game is high quality monochrome and too mechanical for my liking. Muzz is hungry and is not going to lose focus at all. At least that’s what I hope.

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  63. @NNY, I don’t think I have discredited Muzz anywhere. I said that he and Novak have been on par with their game.
    I have seen almost all the matches of Nole and Muzz. Almost all elements of their game are clicking. One odd match against Wawa doesn’t change much of his overnight form. (Remember Nole’s Wimbledon campaign last year. He struggled through till the Final and then put up a clinical performance in the Final. If he can do that after a fortnight of struggle, he can definitely do so when he is playing well in a fortnight)
    Muzz too struggled against Dimitrov (the quality of tennis was pretty high in that match) because his opponent was a good mover and aggressive too.

    The match looks well balanced to me. The thing is, Murray breaks down other players with his defense. Against Nole, that wouldn’t work. He will have to put a lot more effort on his 2nd serves and FH. Aggressive Muzz is a treat to watch. The only part in which he is better than Nole is his net play. Hope that he brings it to the fore!

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    • “(Remember Nole’s Wimbledon campaign last year. He struggled through till the Final and then put up a clinical performance in the Final.”

      Clinical? I must have watched a different match. I remember a Novak who struggled to put away a clearly tiring Federer. If THIS Muzza had played THAT Nole in the Wimby final, Muzza would have won.

      But as Rafa says, there is no”if” in sport………….

      Reply

      • He did tightened up while serving for the match. Other than that for the 1st 3 sets and a half as well as the last set, he was nearly flawless, as good as he has ever played on grass.
        So it could be the fact that you watched a different match. Fed was not tired. His FH was the shot which was not at the level where it should have been and he ended up losing the match. Plain and simple.
        Remember Rafa too was not able to close out the Match at Wimby’08. He too had championship points in the 4th set, right?

        I do understand that you may not like Nole, but you can give him the credit where it’s due. Even the majority of tennis population believed that Nole played a really great match that day.

        As for THIS Muzz playing THAT Nole, I just hope we don’t go in that territory. We don’t really know what would have happened, all we can do is speculate.

        So, yeah, as Rafa said, there is no “IF” in sports..

        Let’s just enjoy what these 2 players put up on court tomorrow.

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      • “I do understand that you may not like Nole, but you can give him the credit where it’s due.”

        You are right, I do not like Nole and I should give him credit for the great he has become.

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  64. Ricky, you gotta make an exception and write an ode about Serena Williams. It’s not Roger Federer with the most Slams in the current generation, it’s Serena Williams.

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  65. Match on Nole’s racquet. He wins if he is 90% of his best.

    Muzz needs help from Nole to win this.

    This matchup never leads to highly entertaining tennis

    So much for the demise of the Top 4 that so many journos keep writing about.

    #DoYou ???

    Reply

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