Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Sinner vs. Rune, De Minaur vs. Michelsen

Jannik Sinner

Alex de Minaur and Jannik Sinner are on a collision course for the Australian Open quarterfinals, a matchup that is already one of the most lopsided in tennis history. But first they have to survive fourth-round matches on Monday.

(1) Jannik Sinner vs. (13) Holger Rune

Sinner and Rune will be facing each other for the fifth time in their careers when they battle for a quarterfinal spot at the Australian Open on Monday. Their head-to-head series literally could not be more competitive; it is tied up 2-2 and all four of their previous meetings have required final sets. It is 1-1 on indoor hard courts and also 1-1 on clay (both at the Monte-Carlo Masters, in 2023 and 2024).

Unfortunately for Rune, this proverbial rubber match does figure to be as hotly contested. Since they last squared off, Sinner has become by far the best player in the world–at least according to the lead he owns atop the rankings. The Italian went 73-6 last season and is showing no signs of slowing down in 2025 with routine wins so far in Melbourne over Nicolas Jarry, Tristan Schoolkate (in four sets), and Marcos Giron. Rune took a much more circuitous route to week two. The 13th-ranked Dane needed five sets against Zhizhen Zhang, a fourth-set tiebreaker against Matteo Berrettini, and five sets against Miomir Kecmanovic. Unsurprisingly, Rune cramped throughout the decider against Kecmanovic but somehow managed to get across the finish line. He will almost certainly be less than 100 percent on Monday, and facing Sinner is tough enough even when you are physically fit.

Pick: Sinner in 3

259
WWW: Sinner vs. Rune?


Alex Michelsen vs. (8) Alex de Minaur

As expected, De Minaur is the last Aussie left at the Australian Open. The world No. 8 erased Botic van de Zandschulp 6-1, 7-5, 6-4 and Tristan Boyer 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 before things got trickier in four-set struggle with Francisco Cerundolo on Saturday night. De Minaur is now 5-0 so far this year, having also picked up two United Cup victories earlier this month.


Getting tested in round three–albeit without using up a ton of energy by sealing the deal in four–may actually be a good thing with Michelsen up next on Monday. Michelsen, who is 1-1 lifetime against De Minaur, is even more dangerous than Cerundolo given the strength of his serve and backhand. Even the 20-year-old American’s often shaky forehand was cooking in a straight-set upset of Karen Khachanov on Saturday. Michelsen has already disposed of two top-20 opponents at this tournament, having ousted Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets to begin his fortnight. On a slightly faster surface and somewhere outside of Australia, Michelsen might be the choice. But at home and in what could be an energy-sapping five-setter, De Minaur is too tough to pick against in this spot.

Pick: De Minaur in 5

281
WWW: De Minaur vs. Michelsen?

5 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Sinner vs. Rune, De Minaur vs. Michelsen

  1. I’d say we see something similar to what happened with Alcaraz vs Draper. I expect Sinner to be in even better tune today vs Rune as he took a few matches to shake some rust off and finally looks how Sinner should look after dispatching Giron quite comfortably. There’s no way Rune is going to be 100% healthy heading into this match and if he finds he’s not at a level where he can compete against Sinner there’s a high chance we’ll see another retirement.

    Now to Minaur the Demon. He finally looked more human because he hasn’t been anything short of phenomenal his first 2 matches at the Aussy Open even before from the united cup. He’s put a lot of beef on his serve and seems to be 100% healthy with his full body movement and court coverage. I see Minaur winning in 4. I think his serve had a few lapses last match against Cerundolo and if he can keep the faults low and serve good enough to hold every serve he’ll definitely win in 4. I also see him getting at least 5 breaks in this match.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.