The bottom half of the Australian Open draw has produced plenty of surprises, but Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are so far unscathed. They will face Miomir Kecmanovic and Cameron Norrie, respectively, in the fourth round on Monday.
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz
It will be a rematch of one of 2022’s best matches when Alcaraz and Kecmanovic collide for the second time in their careers in round four of the Australian Open on Monday. Their previous encounter was in instant classic, with Alcaraz winning 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) two years ago at the Miami Masters. Kecmanovic has never played better than he did in that contest, but if can he can recapture that form anywhere it’s in Melbourne. The 60th-ranked Serb reached the fourth round in 2022–his best slam result–when he assumed Novak Djokovic’s place at the top of the draw after Djokovic was banned from competing. He is back in the last 16 two years later following victories over Yosuke Watanuki, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Tommy Paul. Kecmanovic needed two very different fifth sets to survive–a tiebreaker against Stuff and a 6-0 bagel of Paul.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, will be extremely well rested. The second-ranked Spaniard needed four tight sets to get past Lorenzo Sonego in round two, but he preceded that with a straight-set beatdown of Richard Gasquet and followed it up by getting a retirement from Jerry Shang while cruising 6-1, 6-1, 1-0. Expect an entertaining battle in the early stages before Alcaraz takes control against a fatigued and simply overmatched opponent.
Pick: Alcaraz in 3
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(6) Alexander Zverev vs. (19) Cameron Norrie
Both Zverev and Norrie are on their second lives in Melbourne. In fact, they were on life support at pretty much the exact same time during an epic day of second-round action on Thursday. Zverev outlasted Lukas Klein 7-5, 4-6, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(10-7), while Norrie fended off the upset bid of Giulio Zeppieri 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.
Norrie played much better in a four-set win over Casper Ruud on Saturday, but even at that level he will be hard-pressed to beat Zverev. The 22nd-ranked Brit is 0-4 lifetime in the head-to-head matchup and 0-8 in total sets. Zverev also picked up the pace in his third-round contest, erasing Alex Michelsen 6-2, 7(4), 6-2, so his confidence is back heading into week two. Another mostly routine win should be in store for the seventh-ranked German.
Pick: Zverev in 3
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Carlos in 3; Zv in 4.