Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Lajovic, Auger-Aliassime vs. Karatsev

Dusan Lajovic, who is going up against Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open on Sunday, is not the most surprising fourth-round participant. That distinction belongs to Aslan Karatsev, who will try to continue his improbable run at the expense of Felix Auger-Aliassime.

(23) Dusan Lajovic vs. (6) Alexander Zverev

Zverev and Lajovic will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Sunday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Zverev’s way, but five sets were required on both occasions. That is not entirely surprising because their two previous encounters came on Lajovic’s preferred clay-court surface at the French Open. Zverev prevailed 2-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 in 2018 and 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 1-6, 6-2 in 2019.

Although the Serb is no slouch on the hard stuff, this quicker court gives Zverev an advantage. The world No. 7 has been on fire since underwhelming at Roland Garros last fall and getting back on hard courts. He won back-to-back titles in Cologne, finished runner-up at the Paris Masters, and is off to a strong start in 2021. Zverev, who has not dropped a set through three rounds, hasn’t lost to anyone other than Novak Djokovic or Daniil Medvedev since the French Open. Lajovic has halted a slump by capitalizing in a favorable draw in Melbourne, but this is where it ends for the 27th-ranked Serb.

Pick: Zverev in 3

(20) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (Q) Aslan Karatsev

Who is Aslan Karatsev? That is a question many in the tennis world may be asking right now, or perhaps they found out the answer earlier this week. A perennial Challenger player, the 27-year-old has surged from out of nowhere to reach the fourth round in his first-ever Grand Slam main-draw appearance. Karatsev qualified for the Aussie Open last month and has since taken out Gianluca Mager, Egor Gerasimov, and Diego Schwartzman. The world No. 114 has not dropped a set, no set has been more competitive than 6-4, and only one set has been more competitive than 6-3. Karatsev humiliated Egor Gerasimov 6-0, 6-1, 6-0 and then destroyed Schwartzman 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.

Auger-Aliassime is also in impressive form. The 19th-ranked Canadian finished runner-up at the Murray River Open and has bounced back from a seventh loss in seven ATP finals by beating Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, James Duckworth, and Denis Shapovalov all in straight sets without requiring a single tiebreaker. Still, Auger-Aliassime’s mentality seems a bit fragile on the big stages–such as in ATP finals and deeper into slams. Karatsev, on the other hand, is so entirely in the zone right now that he may not even be thinking. This showdown could absolutely either way, but a slight edge goes to the scorching-hot underdog.

Pick: Karatsev in 5