Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Monfils, Raonic vs. Bautista Agut

Coming off a five-setter against Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal will continue his Australian Open campaign against Gael Monfils on Monday. The fourth-round schedule also includes a showdown between Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut.

(6) Gael Monfils vs. (9) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Monfils will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in round four of the Australian Open on Monday. The head-to-head series is being dominated 12-2 by Nadal, who has taken four in a row at Monfils’ expense since suffering a 2012 loss in Doha. They most recently squared off last season in the Monte-Carlo Masters final, which Nadal won 7-5, 5-7, 6-0.

If Monfils wanted to avoid the 14-time Grand Slam champion, he almost got his wish. After Nadal made routine, straight-set work of Florian Mayer and Marcos Baghdatis, he needed five sets to survive Alexander Zverev 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 on Saturday in what has been an upset-filled event. Not too much unlike the ninth-ranked Spaniard, who missed much of last season with a wrist problem, Monfils is often an injury-plagued question mark. The sixth-ranked Frenchman did not play at all this month prior to his arrival in Melbourne, but he has put concerns to rest with convincing defeats of Jiri Vesely, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Even though a new, more focused version of Monfils has been on display since the start of 2016, it remains to be seed if he can keep his head on straight for the entirety of a best-of-five date with Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (3) Milos Raonic

Raonic was the last player in the draw to be perfect on serve–not getting broken a single time. That distinction ended on Saturday when he dropped his third set to Gilles Simon, but the Canadian still prevailed 6-2, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3. Raonic preceded that victory with straight-set wins over Dustin Brown and Gilles Muller. Thus continues a solid start to the season for the world No. 3, who beat Nadal in Brisbane before losing to a red-hot Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals.

Up next for Raonic is a fifth career meeting with Bautista Agut, who is a hopeless 0-4 in the head-to-head series. The 14th-ranked Spaniard is 1-8 in total sets, having taken only a single tiebreaker during a 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5) loss at the Shanghai Masters in 2015. One streak will continue on Monday–either Bautista Agut’s futility against Raonic or his perfection in 2017. He is 7-0 with a title in Chennai and wins this fortnight over Guido Pella, Yoshihito Nishioka, and David Ferrer. Unless Raonic has a terrible serving day, baseline rallies should be kept to a minimum and the third seed will likely maintain his mastery of Bautista Agut.

Pick: Raonic in 4

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82 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Monfils, Raonic vs. Bautista Agut

  1. I hope for no surprises here, I’d like to see a Raonic Nadal quarterfinal. That would be really interesting considering how chances of winning the tournament increased for both of them.

  2. I have no predictions at all, Monfils Vs Nadal is completely uncertain, I’d say it’s 50/50 despite previous stats.
    Raonic seems favorite for the other one but RBA will give him a run for his money, I think.

  3. With so many ultra upsets(djokovic, Murray, kerber) it be great if monfils wins. Nadal has lost to much less quality players already and yet people here are all backing him regardless.

    • Nadal is close to being back to his best and is riding the crowd like a madman.

      I think he take care of all 5 of those players in 3 or 4 right now.

  4. I think Raonic will get the win in 4 sets.

    I think Monfils will give Rafa more of a match this time. But Rafa should be feeling some real confidence after his win over Zverev. Rafa played some outstanding tennis and if he keeps it up then he should get the win in 3 or 4 sets.

  5. After a grueling 5 set match for Nadal … I feel the longer this one goes, the more it’ll play in Monfils’ favor. Raonic is showing no major flaws at the moment and should win fairly easy.

    Monfils in 5, Raonic in 3

  6. What a waste for Agut; he was 4-1 up in the TB but managed to lose it! He had Raonic on the rope in the TB but still lost it in the end. Raonic ‘fighted’ (fought) and won.

  7. Rafa has played some great aggressive forehands and backhands this tournament but his ‘average groundstroke’ is not penetrative enough yet. He takes a while before he pulls the trigger and drops quite a few balls short in the process. He would need to do loads of running and be on the backfoot against aggressive players.
    Rafa must increase the pace on his ‘average groundstroke’. Let’s see how it goes in this match.

    • Exactly, that first set was a waste; the third set, he had one lousy service game at the end and that’s it, lost the set. Really wasteful.

    • The 1st set could also have gone 4-0 for Milos, but he wasted several break points (I think 10..)…
      And then in the 2nd, the canadian wasted again the break advantage and lost his service twice in a row with only double faults and unforced errors.
      I thought it was gonna go for the spaniard. If Raonic doesn’t play better in the QF, Nadal won’t forgive as much as RBA did.

  8. Rafa wasted so many BP chances and got me worried when he served for the set. He cant afford to do that against Raonic, if he wins this match.

  9. Very disappointed with how Rafa played his last service game, I mean he showed fear of Monfils groundstrokes and played so tentatively! He better be careful and up his level and intensity, too much fear and respect for his opponents will back fire on him!

  10. It’s like he is nervous about reaching a slam QF after failing so many times, it’s so hard to watch! I mean why he gives Monfils so much space to work his serve? Monfils just serves hard and many times Rafa hits a weak return or worse, mishit it. After so many failed/weak returns he still didn’t want to adjust his return positions!

  11. Monfils gets lucky and gets the break thanks to a net. 3-2 Monfils. Oh God please not another 5-setter! Really annoyed with Rafa to be honest :/

  12. Please Rafa, please win this match, don’t let the detractors say that you can’t win on fast HC, please calm down and returns serve properly!

  13. Rafa’s BP conversion is just so poor; he really need to do something with his ROS. He’s allowing Monfils getting all the cheap points! It’s really worrying the way he plays now.

  14. phewwwwww no 5-setter. Rafa’s through to the QF! He surely has to improve and he knows it. Raonic will be one heck of a battle. Please rafa, make it to the semis. VAMOS

  15. vmk1 January 23, 2017 AT 12:47 PM

    “Rafa still does not have the level to beat the top 10 though.”

    Monfils is top 10 …

    Vamos Rafa!

  16. I’ve predicted all four winners for today correctly except that I thought Rafa would win in straights. I think Goffin vs Dimi will be a hard fought battle; Rafa will struggle vs Raonic if he keeps returning poorly.

    I watched the Raonic/Agut match, Agut unlike Rafa, hit very flat shots and at times caused Raonic so much problems. However, Raonic was surprisingly so quick around the court, retrieving unbelievable shots and turned the losing score in the first set TB into a winning one for him.

    Raonic has great serve and big ground strokes from both wings, very difficult to guard against those shots, I hope Rafa remains calm, at least holds his own serves first of all, and then look into his ROS, taking his chances and not plays tentatively. VAMOS RAFA!!

  17. Rafa’saya 15th slam in next 6 days if Fed is in final. Unlikely for Raonic to beat Rafa since he needs 4 sets to pass RBA.

    If Wawa goes thru, fourth slam with 4-0 gs final record.

    • I think if Federer plays Rafa the way he always did, then you’d have to pick Rafa of course. But we shouldn’t ignore the fact that Federer is playing considerably differently than when they last played in a slam. He’s coming to the net quite a bit, and winning those net points. Especially since this court is quicker, if Fed plays like he in Basel 2015 but goes to the net even more, then I don’t think it will be as simple for Rafa as we would think. But if Fed gets lazy and stays at the baseline like he always did too much against Rafa, it could very well be business as usual for Rafa… I just hope that if they play, we get a 5-set classic!

      That being said, I definitely think it will be a big ask for Federer to get through Stan/Jo-Willy, and if he can get through them, have enough left in the tank to beat Rafa/Roanic/Dimitrov. I agree with you that it’s definitely very difficult to pick against Stan once he gets to the semifinals…

  18. Rafael Nadal 23-01-17
    Rafael Nadal def Gael Monfils 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-4

    23 January, 2017
    Gael Monfils v Rafael Nadal, R4, Day 8, Rod Laver Arena, 23 January 2017
    Photo by: Ben Solomon/Tennis Australia

    Q. What does it mean to you to win in four sets?
    RAFAEL NADAL: For me means a lot because for me I really start the season playing quarterfinals in a Grand Slam again, especially on hard court after a couple of years without being in this round is a great news.

    Yeah, very happy with an important victory against a very good opponent.

    Q. You played nine sets in your last two matches. How do you feel physically, given that it was a very hot and humid today?
    RAFAEL NADAL: Today was tough. The other day the humidity was less. Even if the match was probably tougher the other day, but today the humidity was much higher, no? The match became little bit tougher.

    No, I feel good now. Let’s see how I wake up tomorrow morning. You’re not going to know after finishing the match. You need to wait.

    Q. Even though Monfils came back, did you still feel like you were in control of the match, holding serve more easily than him, keeping on top?
    RAFAEL NADAL: I am not this kind of person that are that arrogant, no? When you lost the third, you are down 4-2 in the fourth, you are not under control, no. That’s the real thing.

    You know that you have a good chance to be in the fifth. 4-3, 30-Love for him. The match was tough. He had chances then. Is true that I had my chances before, but I had some mistakes. He started to serve huge, no?

    Sometimes is tough to play against Gael when you don’t know what he going to do. First two sets were a little bit more normal, normal tennis. Then he start to play more aggressive. He start to serve huge and play big shots. He combines mistakes with great shots, no? Make you feel that you don’t know if you have to go for the points or if you have to wait little bit for his mistake. You see that the opponent is playing a little bit more 50/50, you know. So is not an easy way to play.

    But I made it. Positive thing, I keep fighting with positive attitude. Finally I played last few games good.

    Q. Against Raonic in the next round, you played him in Brisbane, what could be different this time?
    RAFAEL NADAL: I don’t know. I don’t know what can be different, no? I think going to be a tough match for me, for sure. Hopefully for him, too.

    Yeah, in Brisbane he beat me. But at the same time is true that I have been close. A set up and important breakpoint that I had passing shot, no?

    Is tough. He’s an opponent that make you feel that you’re playing with a lot of pressure all the time because his serve is huge and he’s playing very aggressive from the baseline. So going to be a very tough match, no?

    But I hope to be ready for it. I need to be very focused with my serve and play aggressive. If I am not playing aggressive, then I am dead, because he plays aggressive. You know finally he going to have chances on the return because he decides to play with going for the shots, so…

    Q. You were talking on the court about your girlfriend who came to Australia for the first time. Is it a difference mentally?
    RAFAEL NADAL: No, not at all.

    http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/inter … 30117.html

  19. Vamosrafa…was rafa that bad ? How much would you rate him today ? What worked and was good and what wasn’t ?

    Did not see the match but Gael was always a tricky customer…you all agreed before the match that he is playing well, making unbelievable gets and hitting winners…atleast rafa won in 4 🙂

  20. Saw highlights…it was okayish performance

    End of 3rd to midway of 4th rafa was passive and monfils caught fire…rest of the match rafa was good.

    Rafa not hitting enough fh dtl. ..not sure why..the 4 times he hit it he won the point.He usually goes cc or i/o.

    He is standing closer to baseline though which is positive

    Not sure if humidity was tiring but yes 3rd round performance was better.however it could be as rafa has played monfils enough and knows what to expect which is not the case with Alexander.Alex is more aggressive than monfils too..

    As rafa said in pressure monfils can flick anytime and you never know what to expect. Please note monfils has taken Fed to 5 sets in slams and beaten him a few times too. Fed has himself said when it’s against monfils the match is not always on your racquet.

    Let’s be happy Rafa is through to QF. I am sure most of us would have signed up for this before the slam . Now let’s hope he goes higher from here.

    • @Sanju

      Appreciate your thoughts, and yes, I most definitely would have signed for this! To me, Rafa looks like Rafa again. Pep in the step, a gleam in his eye and a smile on his face. He’s competing and he’s loving it.

  21. I just watched my recording of the match! I have no problem with the comments here from those watching the match live. It’s normal to get anxious and worried and start to have doubts. I did while watching Rafa play Zverev. I don’t think it has anything to do with not being positive about Rafa! I get it! Watching is nerve wracking!

    I had tears at the end of this match! Because of the way Rafa turned it around down a break! That was vintage Rafa! Then seeing his reaction is what got me! To see what it meant to him! That was special!

    I am over the moon with this victory. The only thing is Rafa having to face Raonic next. Ge is playing with such confidence now. The serve and his overall game. He is #3 for a reason. Rafa knows that he will have to play even better in that match.

    One match at a time! Who would have thought that Rafa and Fed would be in the quarterfinals and Novak and Murray would be out!

    I am not going to analyze the match now. I just want to enjoy Rafa’s win. They will replay the match today and maybe then I can look st it and think about Rafa’s game. I will say that Rafa’s serve stats have been great in each match!

    Well done Rafa!

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