Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Norrie, Fognini vs. de Minaur

Rafael Nadal continues his quest for a second Australian Open title on Saturday against Cameron Norrie. Nadal is on a collision course for the fourth round with familiar foe Fabio Fognini, but the Italian could be in trouble against Alex de Minaur.

(2) Rafael Nadal vs. Cameron Norrie

Rafael Nadal has a staggering 86 career titles, including a record-tying 20 majors. What he doesn’t have is an elusive secnd Australian Open title. The Spaniard won his single title in 2009 over Roger Federer after a marathon semifinal win over compatriot Fernando Verdasco. He’s been in four other finals but has come up short in each.

His 2021 prospects are dented a bit, owing to a back injury he picked during his Oz quarantine. His service motion is slightly compromised, but he sailed through his first two matches with little difficulty.

Saturday opponent Cameron Norrie, the world No. 69, has never won an ATP-level title. He earned his third round spot thanks in part to a first round upset of the No. 30 seed and fellow Brit Daniel Evans. Norrie had a good start to the 2021 season with a run to the semifinals in Delray Beach, where he fell to young American upstart Sebastian Korda. He went 9-13 for the 2020 season.

Back issues notwithstanding, this should not be a complicated match for the Spaniard. Norrie is sometimes inconsistent enough that he loses early at Challenger events and Nadal is too skilled, too crafty, and too experienced to lose his way at this stage of a slam.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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How many games will Norrie win?

(16) Fabio Fognini vs. (21) Alex de Minaur

Any match that includes Fabio Fognini offers the possibility that something interesting or notable will occur, and indeed, he supplied just such fodder in his second-round match against countryman Salvatore Caruso. After a marathon five-setter that ended in a 14-12 tiebreaker, the two men had words–many of them. And loudly. They mostly stemmed from Fognini’s post-match assessment that Caruso had been *expletive* lucky, which Caruso took exception to. At one point a tournament official stepped between them, clearly nervous that they would come to blows.

Temper is normal for Fognini, so he isn’t likely to be bothered by the argument. But what he may be affected by is the four hours he spent on court earning his way into the third round. Upcoming opponent Alex de Minaur is not only playing at home, but he also had a couple of fairly routine straight-set matches over Tennys Sandgren and Pablo Cuevas to earn his spot opposite Fognini.

De Minaur has actually already won a tournament in 2021. The Aussie snagged the first title of the year in Antalya when Alexander Bublik retired in the final. He didn’t fare well at the ATP Cup last week, but his two opponents were Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roberto Bautista Agut–so those losses were hardly upsets and not unexpected.

Cheryl pick: De Minaur in 4

Ricky pick: De Minaur in 4

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WWW: Fognini vs. de Minaur?

33 Comments on Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Norrie, Fognini vs. de Minaur

  1. subpar Rafa obviously struggling with back issue, making a lot of UEs in this match… good that he managed to win in three… hope his back issue stops acting up cause he needs to be on top of his game for Fog…we all know how motivated Fog is when playing Rafa..

    Here is wishing Rafa a recovery from this strange injury and hoping he can play his best in the next match…I also hope he will be able to practice and prepare well for the Italian storm…

    • Natashao. Rafa said ues are normal as he does not have match practice n from that angle…today’s match was needed .so let’s trust him .I think his back is slightly better today

      Anyone knows what Rafas serve speeds were today compared to first 2 rounds. If its higher it means back is better

      • From the on court interview: Rafa said his back has improved and he was using his normal service motion today. And he won in straights. So that’s good news. I’m going to take my own previous advice and do One. Match. At. A. Time. Foggy’s played a lot of tennis in the past 2 weeks so he must be wearing down some, right?

  2. Vamos Rafa!

    Rafa seemed cheerful, even optimitic? in his on court post match interview. I’m happy for the win, but I wish he was playing The Demon instead of Foggy. Not gonna watch it live anyway. If Rafa wins I’ll just laugh at Fog’s antics and if he loses, well, I will not watch that. Not gonna get easier. Tsitsi in the quarters, Meddy in the semis…and probably the Drama Queen in the final. (Apologies to him if he actually does have a tear.)

  3. Foggy will be a tough opponent for Rafa; I expect at least a four sets match, maybe five. Hope Rafa comes through that and reaches the QF.

  4. Foggy really played well against De Minaur. De Minaur has no weapon to hurt Foggy; an easy win for Foggy. Foggy is such a shot maker, I hope Rafa is ready for the fight!

  5. Nadal has some nice matches to prepare him before Medvedev.
    Medvedev better improve because he won’t get away with those lapses in concentration against Rafa.

  6. Rafa said today is the first day he felt an improvement in his back. Was able to use his normal serve motion.
    Finally some positive news regarding the back!

        • Well other players have had injections for bad back. I remember Murray getting one at RG before he went on to win wimby so that’s actually quite encouraging. And that was when there was only 2 weeks before wimby.

        • Some more snippets:
          Rafa said today is the first day he has less pain😊
          He said that a few days ago he had very little chance of winning the tournament. Now he does have a chance but he hasn’t been practising properly for ages so he is going to increase his level of practice to improve his fitness.
          I do worry, even if the back is better, how his fitness will hold up over 5 sets. Really hope he turns it on against foggy to get rid of him asap.
          💧💧💧💧 this is what foggy will.turn into after being zapped by rafa!

          • Amy, frankly Ive had enough of your double standards , ie its OK for you to stick needles into other players, but your precious Rafa has to be wrapped in cotton wool every single time !

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