Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. McDonald, Medvedev vs. Millman

Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev remain on a collision course for the Australian Open quarterfinals and they will be back in action on Wednesday. Nadal awaits Mackenzie McDonald, while Medvedev faces John Millman.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Mackenzie McDonald

Nadal survived what was always going to be a tough test in the form of Jack Draper on Day 1 at the Australian Open. Draper was neck and neck with the top seed through two sets, but the 21-year-old Brit predictably wore down physically in a best-of-five situation and Nadal prevailed 7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1. That marked the 36-year-old Spaniard’s first win of the season, as he had previously compiled a 0-2 record at the United Cup (three-set losses to Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur).

Up next for Nadal on Wednesday is a second career meeting with McDonald. Their only previous encounter came at the 2020 French Open, where Nadal cruised 6-1, 6-0, 6-3. A hard court will obviously give McDonald a much better chance, but a four-hour and two-minute struggle with fellow American Brandon Nakashima on Monday is not ideal preparation (McDonald survived 7-6(5), 7-6(1), 1-6, 6-7(10), 6-4). Don’t be surprised if this is similar to Nadal’s first match, with the underdog staying competitive for a while before fading late.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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WWW: Nadal vs. McDonald?


John Millman vs. (7) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev and Millman will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Wednesday. A battle with Medvedev at one his favorite tournaments just one round following a grueling five-setter is probably not what the doctor ordered for Millman. The 33-year-old Australian outlasted Marc-Andrea Huesler 6-7(8), 7-5, 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 on Monday, needing four hours and five minutes to advance.

Although Medvedev has not been in peak form dating back to the end of last year’s Australian Open, a return Down Under with lower expectations may be a recipe for instant success. The world No. 8 is 4-0 so far this season and 4-0 against opponents not named Novak Djokovic. A back-to-back runner-up at Melbourne Park, Medvedev was simply ruthless in round one and improved to 13-2 in his last 15 matches at this event by destroying a previously in-form Marcos Giron 6-0, 6-1, 6-2. Unfortunately for the home crowd, this has all the makings of another beatdown.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

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WWW: Medvedev vs. Millman?

43 Comments on Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. McDonald, Medvedev vs. Millman

  1. I am hearing that Mc Donald is expected to beat Rafa. Well……………everyone can beat Rafa these days!! 🙄🙄🙄

    Mac Donald almost lost today, I don’t c what about him that can bring down Rafa!! But I suppose this is u they play!!

    Vamos!!

  2. Vamos Rafa!

    I have not heard anywhere that Mackie is “expected to beat Rafa! He’s mostly said to “have a chance”.

    Anyway, I’m off to bed, it’s 11 am here.

  3. Mc Donald is giving his ALL in this first set…….it will be a complete miracle if he doesn’t fizzle after the first set, the kid’s playing a brutal game!!

    Rafa om the other hand has to serve better and come up to the baseline to shorten points, even if I feel the rallies will help him sharpen his game. He needs to throw in a few more drop shots as well.

  4. Poor Rafa………that’s just incredible!!! In str8t sets?

    Y is Rafa destroyed mentally? Rafa has always performed great after injury!! What’s different now?

  5. Permanently injured one gets conveniently “injured” whenever he doesn’t stand a chance to win, but never on clay?!
    This is fifth time at AO, isn’t it?

  6. Okay he was never going to win this anyway ..it’s ok that he lost ,sad part is the injury. We know it’s the hip but he himself does not know what the injury is and how long he will be put. Rem in 2018 ao qf he had injury to the hip ,he did not play for 2 months n then came n tore apart the clay swing n even played very well at wimby ( lost to djoko 97 in fifth in semi).

    So maybe the same thing will repeat ? He may come back strong for the French.

    I really don’t know what to expect. One part of me strongly says he is done for good as if you get 5 injuries in 9 months, it means body is giving a signal that time is up. Another part of me says maybe he has 1 more left and to wait till Wimby if he manages one more . Ofcourse if he can’t win French or wimby this year ,it’s curtains and it stops at 22. Hoping he manages to sneak 1 more somehow and ends at 23 or 24 but probability of that is less than 20 .

  7. And yes I have resigned to the fact that djokovic will cross him and rafa will end up no 2 in slam tally. It’s ok ,being no 2 in all time GS race is helluva great.

  8. I think this is going to be tough for Rafa to come back. Just too many injuries. He can’t trust his body. He should have confidence after winning 2 slams last year. The best start of his career. But injuries just got in the way and wrecked his confidence.

    The rib injury. The foot. He even went through the ablation procedure so he could play at Wimbledon. He was playing great grass court tennis until the ab tear. That seemed to take a long time to heal and then I read that he tore it again at the USO. That seemed to really hurt his confidence.

    He has been losing matches to players he would normally beat. He came into this tournament with no recent wins and no confidence. We did have last year, but I hate to see it end this way.

  9. Incy_ Wincy_Spider Bless Rafa for at least finishing the match, what a warrior, ou could see he was struggling, I don’t think he should’ve played the AO, maybe he should have concentrated on using the time off to get ready for the clay court swing, he says he still loves playing, so please folks no retirement talk….

  10. I certain,y don’t want Rafa to retire, however one can’t just ignore the possibility. Rafa said this latest injury has destroyed him mentally. He has fought back time and again. I admire his courage.

    Nothing would make me happier than to see Rafa come back one more time. I hope that is what happens. But seeing his wife crying when he was injured was so sad.

    • Hey hey hey RC!..long time no hear!😀

      Thank u for the link!..insyaallah if the ‘mourning time’ has passed,i’ll go check out the WTA page k?Right now…healing time!!😀

    • Hey hey hey Al!…Is that u??hehehe…Incy Wincy Spider now??Whoo!!…very unique & nice new name Al!

      I remember all the unique names while u blogged on TX once upon a time ago Al!..God!..missed those time very much!..btw..how r u now Al?

  11. How pathetic are these rabid Rafa fans, nobody is giving credit to McDonald who completely outplayed Rafa, not even Rafa himself?!
    McDonald was set and 5:3 in the second ahead when “injury” occurred, he was much better player.
    Rafa looked old and slow, that’s the fact.
    Rafa came ready to fight to defend title, he was fighting fit, he believed in it, otherwise he wouldn’t bring entire family to Melbourne!

  12. Injuries or no injuries, I have no complaints MacMac was definitely the better player, sometimes you just have to hold your hands up and say too good, it’s not the end of the world.

  13. So Rafa confirmed he’s torn a muscle and will need 6-8 weeks to heal. Sigh. Very difficult road ahead. I think he’ll keep going for now but will be quite vulnerable. Looks like and hope he only returns in time for Monte Carlo.

    • Wrote a post which disappeared.😠
      Basically it said that if Rafa’s confidence really is shot and his anxiety of 2015 has returned then the future is potentially very bleak.
      There’s no point sugar coating reality.

    • I saw the info about Rafa’s injury. A grade 2. I did not realize it was a torn muscle. It does not sound good. Another setback. Six to eight weeks to heal.

      What bothers me is that Zverev is going around saying that Rafa will retire after RG. Why is he talking fir Rafa? People here say don’t talk about retirement, but Zverev opens his big mouth about it. On ESPN last night Chris Fowler mentioned what Zverev said. Then he said it is probably true that Rafa will retire after one more RG.

      I wish people would just shut up and let Rafa do the talking. He has earned the right to make the decision on his own.

      • Zverev did say that before the match Rafa got injured nny which actually makes it even more extraordinary he would say it. I came on here 2/3 days ago and posted about it and said what on earth is Zverev on about!!?

        • amy,

          I am very frustrated with Zverev. It is not his place to talk about Rafa’s injury or retirement. Of course the ESPN commentators pick it up and run with it.

          Rafa deserves better than that. He has earned the right to make decisions regarding his career. He will know when it’s time.

          On VB they are saying it’s good that it isn’t the joint. I read that he had this injury in 2018 and it flared up again at Acapulco.

          They also said Rafa could go out of the top 10 for the first time. He can’t play at IW or Miami. He has to recover from this if he wants a shit at the clay season.

  14. Nadal will be back by April and he will win the French open. He’s not retiring anything no matter his age or the injuries. Even if he’s destroyed mentally because of this injury, he’s coming back and playing to win.

    Unlike everyone else, I choose to be optimistic and that is me facing reality. 2021 and 2022 were much worse than this with Nadal considering retirement and what happened? He came back and won 2 grandslams and cancelled any retirement talk. We have been here before many times and he always bounced back. That IS reality.

    People forget that the Olympics will be played on clay next year and Nadal has made it abundantly clear that his dream is to win the Olympic gold (again) on clay. He’s been waiting forever for this. So if anyone thinks Nadal is retiring this year bc of whatever injury, they are in for a rude awakening. He’s coming for that gold at the Olympics next year, period.

    This is a hip injury not the feet issue. If it’s the feet issue which is incurable and is by far the worst of all his injuries then we can worry and be terrified. I don’t care whether he has had 5 or 10 injuries in 9months and he’s 36 years and is losing to everybody. He is an indefatigable fighter and warrior, hence the 22 slams. He’s coming back to win the French open. Zverev can keep dreaming if he thinks Nadal will retire after the French.

    Lionel Messi at the age of 35+ years came and won the World Cup last year against all odds and won the player of the tournament playing exquisite football. Nadal watched it and he said he cried along with Messi bc he knows how Messi has really suffered for so many years to win it and when everyone gave up on him (and he has had his injuries too though not like Nadal), he roars back and does the impossible by winning the World Cup at an old age (in terms of football). Messi was talking about retiring from international football after the World Cup and lo and behold, he changed his mind after winning it, saying that he wants to continue playing as world champion for some time and he is still playing well at the club level and might even play in the next World Cup if he so wishes (according to his coach). Messi’s win has inspired a lot of people to never give up especially the king of never give up himself:Nadal.

    I believe Nadal still has a few more slams to win (French open ofcourse and others) and it is not written in the stars that Djokovic will end up with the most slams, Nadal in my opinion will end up with the most if his body is managed well. Djoko fans believe djoko will end up with 30 slams. Delusional? Maybe. I chose to have that kind of crazy faith in Nadal no matter the results bc rafa has proven me wrong time after time especially last year when he had no business winning the Australian open and especially the French open (beating Djoko for that matter in the quarterfinals) with the SEVERAL injuries he had leading up to it.

    Vamos Rafa. Come back and do your thing and prove everyone wrong again. If Messi did it, you can and will do it. The end.

    • He didn’t bounce back after injury in 2015 and parts of 2016. He could hardly play on court at times because of the mental injury he suffered.
      He didn’t win a slam from RG 2014 until RG 2017. That’s 3 years! No way could he repeat that at his age. It would be horrible to watch.
      Anyway, I am being premature. But the warning signs have been there plain to see. e.g. during his match with de Minaur his saying to Lopez why am I so lacking in confidence.
      I said after that that if he really was suffering from such low levels of confidence he would almost certainly lose early.
      I grant you I am being premature in looking ahead though. Rafa didn’t have Moya in 2015 and, in my view, he really needs Moya to help him now. If he can then I hope he can battle through the clay season which will likely be very difficult at first and win #23 at RG.
      If he does then he will recover his confidence.

  15. So much for beating Rafa and then to get shat on in the next round……,in str8ts!!!! That tells me all I need to know!! Sigh!!

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