In the most tantalizing of the round-one matches, Jannik Sinner will take on the talented Canadian Denis Shapovalov on the first day of the Australian Open. Grigor Dimitrov and Marin Cilic will also be in action on Monday.
(11) Denis Shapovalov vs. Jannik Sinner
In theory, this match has all the makings of the best match on offer in the entire first round. 19-year-old Jannik Sinner has all the makings of a future Grand Slam champion. He won his first title last year in Sofia and just pocketed his second on Sunday at the Great Ocean Road Open.
He takes on world No. 12 Denis Shapovalov, who has steadily climbed his way up the rankings since his breakthrough year in 2019. Thus far, the Canadian’s results at the Grand Slam events have been a mixed bag. He made his way to the quarters at the U.S. Open last fall but ate a first-round loss in Melbourne last year to Marton Fucsovics.
Unlike Sinner, Shapovalov comes into the Australian Open without a match win this season. He played a couple of matches last week at the ATP Cup but his two opponents were Novak Djokovic and an in-form Alexander Zverev, and he lost both.
The favorite will certainly be the less tired of the two players. Thanks to his title at the Great Ocean Road Open, Sinner will take the court on Monday for the fourth straight day. And even though Shapovalov lost his matches against Djokovic and Zverev, he played well in both and wisely used the ATP Cup as a tune up for the Australian Open and nothing more.
Sinner made the quarters at the French Open in fall of 2020, presumably resolving his previous issue of wilting in best-of-five matches. But there isn’t likely to be a quarterfinal for him here.
Cheryl pick: Shapovalov in 5
Ricky pick: Shapovalov in 4
(18) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Marin Cilic
At first glance this is another tasty first round match. The problem is that Marin Cilic earned his No. 43 ranking the old-fashioned way: by playing inconsistent tennis for a long time. The Croatian’s best event in all of 2020 was a round of 16 showing in Melbourne. Since then, his results have been largely disappointing, including a first-round ouster last week at the Murray River Open at the hands of Jeremy Chardy.
Bulgaria’s Grigor Dimitrov is enjoying a sort of second renaissance in his career. He had a good 2020 season, although he came up short in Melbourne last year, losing in the second round to American Tommy Paul. He made the quarterfinals last week at the Murray River Open, playing just enough to warm up but not enough to wear himself out.
Cilic has historically played well in Melbourne, so he may snag a set from Dimitrov. But the Bulgarian should find his way to the second round without much fuss.
Cheryl pick: Dimitrov in 4
Ricky pick: Dimitrov in 4
Sinner’s matches in the later stages were closer than I wouldve liked it. I think this match is almost 50/50.
Dimitrov in 4 sounds about right. Doubt he can win in 3, he’s not playing well enough, and doubt Cilic can push him to 5.
I have Sinner winning on paper so will be interesting to see whether the circumstances you described swing the result around.
Bookies giving 2.60 for Sinner was generous to say the least.
sorry, 2.80
Shapovalov will have to play one of his best matches.
This theory of yours about players being tired after an arbitrary amount of matches or time on court; has it been tested? Is your sample size statistically significant?
After Sinner broke in the first set, they switched their probability of winning
Shapovalov was 2.50 and Sinner 1.60
No.
Sinner loves the Shapo topspin, sits right in his sweat spot.
After taking a closer look, it was a lot of tennis. 5 Tbs in total and most of the sets were close, only 1 break of serve.
Sinner probably wasn’t expecting the matches to be so competitive and he probably indicated to his team he was OK after each match. That was until he was in a best of 5 sets match against a much higher ranked opponent.
That will be a good bit of preparation and scheduling experience for him and his team.