Arguably the marquee matchup of the entire Australian Open first round will take place on Tuesday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Dominic Thiem. Thanasi Kokkinakis and Fabio Fognini are also taking the court.
(5) Andrey Rublev vs. (WC) Dominic Thiem
Rublev and Thiem will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they clash in round one of the Australian Open on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of Rublev and three of the Russian’s victories have come when Thiem was in peak form–prior to his 2021 wrist surgery. Rublev is 3-1 against the Austrian on hard courts after most recently prevailing 6-4, 6-4 this past fall in Gijon.
The 2023 campaign is not off to a good start for Rublev, who lost right away in both of the Adelaide events to Roberto Bautista Agut and Thanasi Kokkinakis–each one in three tight sets. However, the good news for Melbourne’s No. 5 seed is that the outcome of this match will probably have more to do with his opponent than it does with him. Thiem’s comeback has been slow going and he got blown out by Soonwoo Kwon 6-4, 6-1 in the opening round of Adelaide qualifying. The world No. 99 almost certainly isn’t ready to take down a player of Rublev’s caliber on a Grand Slam stage.
Pick: Rublev in 3
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Fabio Fognini
Nick Kyrgios may be Australia’s biggest hope for a Grand Slam champion right now, but don’t be surprised if Kokkinakis makes some noise at Melbourne Park in 2023. The 26-year-old generally plays well at home, as he captured an ATP 250 title in Adelaide 12 months ago and is coming off a semifinal showing at that same event this past week. Kokkinakis is in much better form than his No. 110 ranking would suggest.
Up first for the Aussie on Tuesday is Fognini, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. Kokkinakis got the job done 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 at the 2015 Cincinnati Masters and then cruised 6-4, 6-3 last season in Geneva. There is no real reason to think that Fognini will suddenly turn things in his favor. The 35-year-old Italian was 2-5 in his last seven main-draw matches in 2022 and he lost to Jenson Brooksby in the Auckland first round this past week. Count on Kokkinakis treating the home crowd to a big win over an opponent who won’t find the atmosphere to his liking.
Pick: Kokkinakis in 4
WWW?
Rublev in 3; Fog in 4