Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Musetti vs. Arnaldi, Auger-Aliassime vs. Struff

Seeds Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime will take the court at the Australian Open on Monday, and both will be on red alert. Musetti meets fellow Italian Matteo Arnaldi, while Auger-Aliassime awaits Jan-Lennard Struff.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. (16) Lorenzo Musetti

It will be an all-Italian affair when Musetti and Arnaldi go head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers during first-round action at the Australian Open on Monday. Musetti has won all three of their previous encounters–two in dominant fashion before surviving a third-set tiebreaker on the red clay of Bastad in 2023.

There is no reason to think the tide will turn in Melbourne given Musetti’s propensity for success on the big stage. The world No. 16 has played well at the French Open, he made a run to the Wimbledon semifinals last summer, and he captured the bronze medal at the Paris Olympics. Arnaldi is coming off a mediocre season in which he compiled a 28-25 record on the main tour before opening in 2025 with a Brisbane second-round loss to Reilly Opelka. This could be a fun one with lots of impressive shot-making, but a clear edge goes to Musetti.

Pick: Musetti in 4

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (29) Felix Auger-Aliassime

Auger-Aliassime heads to Melbourne with a ton of momentum after capturing the sixth ATP title of his career in Adelaide on Saturday. It was a much-needed result for the 29th-ranked Canadian, who mostly struggled in 2024. Auger-Aliassime should also take additional confidence from past success at the Aussie Open, where he reached the quarterfinals in 2022 and has advanced to the fourth round on two other occasions.

Up first for him on Monday is Struff, with the head-to-head series all tied up at 2-2. The 34-year-old German, who is coming off a second-round loss in Auckland to eventual champion Gael Monfils, is always dangerous as one of the biggest servers on tour. However, he is a horrendous 2-10 all time in the Australian Open main draw. Count on this being a competitive match, but Auger-Aliassime’s confidence at this particular event and from his clutch performances last week in Adelaide should see him through to round two.

Pick: Auger-Aliassime in 5