Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Carballes Baena, Berrettini vs. Murray

Novak Djokovic is back in action in Melbourne for the first time since his visa was cancelled in 2022. He will take on Roberto Carballes Baena, while Andy Murray battles big-hitting Italian Matteo Berrettini in round one on Tuesday.

(4) Novak Djokovic vs. Roberto Carballes Baena

Novak Djokovic’s 2022 season was a wild ride. The Serb, who has elected not to get vaccinated for COVID-19, was deported from Australia last year following the cancellation of his travel visa. He was also not allowed entry to the United States, thus missing the U.S. Open. Australia has since lifted its COVID vaccine travel restrictions, and the nine-time Aussie Open champion will be back in action on Tuesday.

Unfortunately, it would seem that Djokovic isn’t entirely healthy. The world No. 5 struggled with a thigh injury in his warmup event in Adelaide. He won the event but was clearly not at 100%. The good news for the Serb is that his opening-round match is against world No. 75 Roberto Carballes Baena, a Spaniard who doesn’t possess the kinds of weapons required to take down a player of Djokovic’s caliber.

Carballes Baena flits on and off the Challenger circuit. He spent a fair amount of time last year using Challenger events to maintain his ranking in the top 100. He elects to spend most of his season on clay, where he enjoys his best results. Carballes Baena has played Djokovic once on the hard courts of the U.S. Open back in 2019 and Djokovic won that encounter in routine straight sets.

Cheryl pick: Djokovic in 3

Ricky pick: Djokovic in 3

(13) Matteo Berrettini vs. Andy Murray

It’s a tough draw for sentimental favorite Andy Murray, who runs into No. 13 seed Matteo Berrettini in the first round in Melbourne. Murray hasn’t gotten his old magic back since his hip replacement surgery in 2019. The Scot’s ranking is still a respectable 66th in the world, but his lack of seeding makes him vulnerable to running into top players early in draws.

Berrettini is no stranger to Murray. The two men met twice in 2022–in Stuttgart and again at the U.S. Open. Both matches were competitive, with Berrettini just edging the wins. The Italian might not be at his fighting best just yet, as his matches at the United Cup were a mixed bag. He posted wins over the likes of Casper Ruud and Hubert Hurkacz but lost to both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz.

Murray played relatively well in his one pre-tournament match against an impressively in-form Sebastian Korda, but he was still knocked out of the first round in Adelaide so he comes into the Australian Open with little match play. This one may not be as one-sided as the rankings suggest, but expect Berrettini to advance.

Cheryl pick: Berrettini in 4

Ricky pick: Berrettini in 4