Australian Open quarterfinal expert picks: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic

As expected once the draw was revealed, one of the quarterfinal matchups at the Australian Open is Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Tuesday night’s showdown.

Ricky: There is a lot to like about Djokovic’s chances in this one even though he is obviously the underdog. First and foremost, of course, nowhere is he better than he is in Melbourne. The Serb is a ridiculous 98-9 lifetime with 10 titles. Alcaraz on the other hand, has never been to the semis and this is just his second quarterfinal appearance. Secondly, the head-to-head series could not be more competitive. Djokovic holds a slim 4-3 lead after famously triumphing in the Paris Olympics gold-medal match last summer and they have played multiple instant classics against each other. Anything less than another one would be a disappointment. Finally, there is no cause for concern that Djokovic’s overall level this fortnight may be slightly worse than Alcaraz’s so far. The 37-year-old generally sleepwalks against lesser competition before raising his game when the stakes become higher later in a Grand Slam, which is exactly what he did against Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka. Except maybe when Jannik Sinner is on the other side of the net, I’m not picking against Djokovic at Melbourne Park. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3.

Cheryl: This is surely one of the top three matchups in all of men’s tennis. That’s in part because when Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet, the stakes are as high as they get. Four of their last five meetings were in finals; two Wimbledon finals that went Alcaraz’s way, the Cincinnati final that Djokovic won, and the Olympic gold-medal match in Paris that also went to Djokovic. Of course, they can also pretty much be counted on to grind each other to dust and it’s nearly always a good show. Djokovic holds a scant 4-3 record over his new Spanish rival. Both men have looked outstanding through the first week in Melbourne, so the real question is whether Alcaraz has recovered from the Olympic gold-medal loss. Because–make no mistake about it–that loss rattled the youngster. He crashed out of the U.S. Open in the second round to Botic van de Zandschulp and failed to advance out of round-robin play at the Nitto ATP Finals. I say he’s shaken it off now. Look for a barnburner, with Alcaraz just barely sneaking out the win. Alcaraz in 5: 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Who would have guessed that when Alcaraz played Djokovic in the Wimbledon final last year that both players would have combined for only two titles so late in the season> Alcaraz swept the Serb on that day, but Djokovic turned the tables a few weeks later to claim Olympic Gold. It would be his lone title in 2024. Alcaraz would finish with four–two being majors–and had some rough patches in the second half of 2024, including a 1-3 stretch during the summer and a 3-4 record in his last seven matches. Alas, we are now in 2025 and these two titans meet yet again. The Aussie Open has hardly been the “Happy Slam” for Alcaraz; he entered this event with a 7-3 career mark while having hoisted the trophy at the other three majors. Meanwhile, Djokovic has owned the AO for most of his career, reaching La Decima in Melbourne two years ago. In this their eighth career meeting, it is the earliest in a tournament they have ever squared off–with all others being semis (three) or finals (four). At nearly any other venue in 2025, I would go with the Spaniard. However, Djokovic most definitely knows the way in Australia and Alcaraz has yet to solve these “cushion acrylic” hard courts. Djokovic in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-5.