Australian Open quarterfinal: Djokovic vs. Ferrer preview and pick

Novak Djokovic is two wins away from a fourth Australian Open final. Standing in his way of the 2013 title match is David Ferrer.

Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they do battle in the Australian Open semifinals on Thursday night.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series by a modest 9-5, but three of his losses have come on clay and he dominated all three of their 2012 meetings–including a 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-1 decision in Aussie quarterfinals. They most recently faced each other in the U.S. Open semis, in which Djokovic lost a wind-marred first set but still cruised 2-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-2.

Nothing suggests this one will make for any kind of different story. Djokovic survived a fourth-round marathon with Stanislas Wawrinka (12-10 in the fifth), but he bounced back in style to roll over Tomas Berdych like he had his first three opponents (Paul-Henri Mathieu, Ryan Harrison, and Radek Stepanek).

Ferrer, who went into Melbourne fresh off another Auckland title, has not been in peak form like he was at the end of 2012. The fourth-seeded Spaniard dropped a set to Tim Smyczek in round two and he needed five sets (plus three breaks of serve with the match on his opponent’s racket) to overcome compatriot Nicolas Almagro in the quarterfinals.

Grand Slam experience also won’t help Ferrer any in this matchup. Whereas the underdog has never reached a major final, Djokovic owns five slam titles (including three already in Melbourne) and he has been to finals on four other occasions.

Overall, this is a terrible matchup for Ferrer against an opponent who can do everything Ferrer can do and can do everything better. The world No. 5 would much prefer to play ball-bashing opponents who will break down during long points or are not mentally strong enough (see Almagro, Nicolas) to finish of rallies, games, matches, etc. Djokovic, of course, is none of those things.

“He’s the No. 1 of the world,” Ferrer stated. “He’s the favorite for to win the Australian Open. “Nole, he’s a special player.  He has everything shots.  Finally in the fifth set, Djokovic was better physic than Wawrinka.  Novak, I think now he’s recovery, sure, because his physic is unbelievable.  He’s the best, I think.”

“I need to be aggressive on the court, that’s for sure,” the No. 1 seed assured. “I need to step in and try to be in control of the match, otherwise he makes his own rhythm, he makes his own pace on the court.  That’s where he’s very dangerous.  He’s a great competitor.  He’s somebody that has a lot of respect from all the players because he’s playing so many tournaments and works very, very hard. You can see because he’s basically in his 30s one of the fittest players around and is playing the best tennis of his life in the last 15 months.  It’s the semis of a Grand Slam, so I expect a tough match.”

Doubtful. Count on the top-ranked Serb advancing in straight sets to face either Roger Federer or Andy Murray.

Pick: Djokovic 6-3, 6-3, 6-3

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