Although Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic will dominate the headlines for Tuesday’s schedule at the Australian Open, don’t sleep on the other quarterfinal matchup between Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul.
Zverev vs. Paul has all the makings of a blockbuster battle that features two players who have been in outstanding form on a consistent basis dating all the way back to 2023. A Grand Slam title has continued to elude Zverev, but he comes in as the No. 2 player in the world. Paul finds himself at a career-high ranking of No. 11 and is almost certain to break into the top 10 following this tournament regardless of Tuesday’s result.
Neither man is showing any signs of slowing down at Melbourne Park. Zverev dropped just one set on his way to the last eight, beating Lucas Pouille, Pedro Martinez, Jake Fearnley, and Ugo Humbert (four sets). Paul was somewhat close to bowing out in the opening round, when he scraped past Australia’s own Christopher O’Connell 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(5), 7-5. He proceeded to crush Kei Nishikori, Roberto Carballes Baena, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
This marks their fourth meeting, with Paul having won each of their previous two. The American prevailed 6-3, 6-4 at the 2020 Acapulco event and pulled out a 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(2) thriller at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters.
This will likely be more competitive than many expect. Paul has enjoyed success against Zverev in the past and is playing by far the best tennis of his career right now. He should also have no trouble getting into plenty of long baseline rallies–except when Zverev lowers the boom with big first serves, of course. The No. 2 seed is generally content to play far behind the baseline and engage in 20-ball rallies even though he has the power to avoid such a tactic. It’s a tactic that won’t work well against Paul.
In the end, Zverev should win just enough free points with his serve and occasional first-strike tennis. It’s worth noting that he has served at better than 70 percent in all four of his Aussie Open matches so far. If he does again on Tuesday, this match will be on his racket.
Pick: Zverev in 5
WWW?
Tough match for both men….but TP in 4.