Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. De Minaur

The young 2025 tennis season has already witnessed the sport’s most lopsided current rivalry, with Novak Djokovic improving to 20-0 lifetime against Gael Monfils thanks to a routine win at the Brisbane International. Now the second-most one-sided rivalry will be on display when Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur collide in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Wednesday night.

The head-to-head series stands at 9-0 in Sinner’s favor and he has been even more dominant than that flawless record indicates. They have played 21 total sets against each other; Sinner has won 20. The only one he has lost came in a tiebreaker (on the indoor hard courts of Sofia in 2020). Only one other time has De Minaur extended his nemesis to a ‘breaker, when Sinner prevailed 7-6(3), 6-3, 6-4 during fourth-round action at the 2022 Aussie Open.

Sinner was not even close to the No. 1 player in the world at that point, so it’s no surprise their recent matches have become more one-sided. The Italian has taken their last 12 sets 6-4, 6-1, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0, 7-5, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-4.

Is there anything De Minaur can do to turn the tide? The good news–if there is any–is that he is playing at home and playing great. The eighth-ranked Australian is 6-0 this season with a pair of United Cup wins followed by Aussie Open defeats of Botic van de Zandschulp, Tristan Boyer, Francisco Cerundolo, and Alex Michelsen while losing just one set to Cerundolo along the way.

Unfortunately for De Minaur, he can’t control what happens on the other side of the net. Nor can the underdog do anything to impact Sinner from a stylistic standpoint, as he doesn’t have the offensive firepower to put the Italian on defense. Sinner is allowed to play his own game against De Minaur–and his own game is by far the best on tour right now. The defending champion compiled a ridiculous 73-6 record last year and is off to a 4-0 start in 2024 with victories at Melbourne Park over Nicolas Jarry, Tristan Schoolkate, Marcos Giron, and Holger Rune. Sinner has dropped a couple of sets, but he had little trouble beating Rune in four on Monday even though the heat was giving him some problems.

There is no reason to think Sinner will encounter any problems on Wednesday, especially since temperatures will be much cooler in Melbourne at least until Sunday.

If Sinner is ever going to cool off, De Minaur is not the opponent who is going to make that happen.

Pick: Sinner in 3