Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Hurkacz

Daniil Medvedev will have a shot at reaching his third Australian Open semifinal on Tuesday, as he takes on Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz, who is trying for his first.

The unusual has happened in Melbourne. All the players who were supposed to win mostly have done just that–at least on the men’s side. The top seeds are almost entirely intact, with Nos. 1-6 in quarterfinal action along with Hubert Hurkacz (nine) and Taylor Fritz (12). Whether seedings continue to hold up, however, remains to be seen.

Medvedev has enjoyed a fair amount of success at the Australian Open. The world No. 3 has made two finals, but he ran into Grand Slam juggernauts Rafael Nadal (2021) and Novak Djokovic (2022) and was denied the title on both occasions. Medvedev may still have to face down defending champion Djokovic if he makes it to the final again, but first he’ll have to get past Hurkacz.

Hurkacz doesn’t have anywhere near the success in majors as his quarterfinal opponent. In 22 majors played, the Pole has managed to make his way into the second week just once before (2021 Wimbledon, where he made the semifinals). Still, he isn’t likely to be intimidated going into Wednesday’s match against Medvedev. Hurkacz doesn’t just hold a 3-2 record over the Russia; he also won their last two matches.

The underdog will need to be better converting break-point opportunities against Medvedev than he was against Arthur Cazaux on Monday, when he went 2-for-8. Medvedev is an opportunistic player who knows how to generate wins in Melbourne. Hurkacz has a big enough game to bother the third seed, but at this stage of the tournament the nod has to go to Medvedev.

Cheryl pick: Medvedev in 4

Ricky pick: Medvedev in 4

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