Back in the 2000s, the Australian Open used to churn out surprising men’s singles finalists on a relatively consistent basis. Arnaud Clement. Thomas Johansson (champion). Rainer Schuettler. Marcos Baghdatis. Fernando Gonzalez. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Aslan Karatsev still has long way to go before he can think about joining that group, but the fact that he is still in contention for as much heading into the quarterfinals is nothing short of unbelievable.
Playing in the main draw of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career at 27 years old, Karatsev is through to the last eight and will face Grigor Dimitrov for a spot in the semis on Tuesday.
For Karatsev, his Australian Open journey began on a different continent. Ranked 112th in the world at the end of last season, the Russian obviously had to go through qualifying–which he did successfully last month in Doha prior to quarantine in Melbourne. He has since parlayed that into an improbable main-draw run at the expense of Gianluca Mager, Egor Gerasimov, Diego Schwartzman, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Karatsev humiliated Gerasimov 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, upset Schwartzman 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, and then came back from two sets to love down against Auger-Aliassime.
Dimitrov, it has to be said, hasn’t been required to do much this fortnight. The 21st-ranked Bulgarian ousted a past-his-prime Marin Cilic and wild card Alex Bolt in straight sets, got a retirement from Pablo Carreno Busta, and then rolled over a struggling Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-4, 6-0 on Sunday.
Of course, it’s not like Dimitrov’s presence at this stage of the Aussie Open is any kind of fluke. The 29-year-old has now been to the quarterfinals of a slam six times and four have come Down Under.
Karatsev will actually dictate the outcome of this match with his power, but it will be a similar matchup to the one with Auger-Aliassime and Karatsev was almost toast after two sets. The underdog managed to come back and win, but Dimitrov has far more experience than Auger-Aliassime and at this stage of their respective careers is far better under pressure.
If Dimitrov can just withstand some early blows and make this an extended physical and mental struggle, he will have the edge late.
Pick: Dimitrov in 5
WWW?
Dimitrov in 4. Karatsev has nothing left in the tank.
Dimitrov 3-2
Come on, Schwartzmann is dead in the water on hardcourts, especially on fast ones like they are for this AO. Auger-Aliassime is still only a promise. Karatsev had a ridiculously easy draw (and he still has the easiest possible QF opponent). The Russian will probably take a set as his confidence must be sky high, but I doubt that he has a real chance facing a much more sophisticated and superior player.
I have no idea how fit Karatsev is, generally speaking. Does anyone? He hasn’t exactly played a tonne of tennis to get to this point, so he should have plenty in the tank. Dimitrov obviously has great conditioning so let’s hope so. As for the mental side of things, I am tempted to favour the underdog who has ‘no pressure’ to win this and whose confidence and belief must be sky high, expecially with a huge comeback win behind him, over Dimitrov, who has, despite his talent, never delivered at the tail end of a slam. Yes, there have been players of ridiculous calibre in his way, but it’s also down to mentality (which is the very reason he isn’t the same calibre as those players to begin with)
And the last time he was in the Qf here he lost to Kyle Edmund…
Does no crowd help Grigor do better in these situations? Or does it help the unknown underdog?
No idea what’s going to happen. Nothing would be a surprise at this point. I’m just hoping that if Karatsev wins he has something left for the SF.
Love the Ksav story, so far, but I like Dtrov in 4.
Long time no see everyone! I hate to say this but I’ve got Karatsev in 4 dude is on fire
Once again, it’s super close and can go either way. I slight edge has to go to Dimitrov if he can exploit his edge.
Dimitrov is a different level to Schwartzman and FAA on this surface.
FAA would crush Dimitrov any day of the year on fast courts if he is in form
Ksav had no time for the post-match interview and wasn’t scared to hide it. I think it was because the interviewer was a bit too friendly. Karatsev was like ‘do you know where I’m from”. Clash of cultures.
Karatsev is gone. Nothing left in the tank. Dimitrov is now thinking about the semi.
Like Melanie Oudin’s, this Cinderella run will end.
Dimitrov is not playing very well. If he wins his Cinderella story will be ending not long after.
Dimitrov doesn’t look hungry. It’s quite warm in Melbourne, so maybe the heat has zapped his energy.
Dimitrov came out with a game plan but the execution has been very poor.
Karatsev deserves a semi-final for his performance. if he can get rested and recover, we might have an incredible semi on our hands.
No one can go toe to toe with this guy. No frills but just too solid.
Dimitrov had problems with his back starting with the 3rd set. Karatsev got lucky again.