Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kyrgios, Thiem vs. Monfils

The stage is set for another showdown between Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios, this time in round four of the Australian Open. Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals on Monday.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (23) Nick Kyrgios


One of the most bad-blooded rivalries in tennis will be renewed when Nadal and Kyrgios square off for the eighth time in their careers during fourth-round action at the Australian Open on Monday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series by a competitive 4-3 margin, with Kyrgios having won two of their three hard-court encounters. They have split a pair of Grand Slam contests, both at Wimbledon; Kyrgios pulled off a 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3 upset in 2014 and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) last summer.

Kyrgios is putting together what his really just his second impressive run in Melbourne (also quarterfinals in 2015), but it has not been easy. The 26th-ranked Australian followed up wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Gilles Simon by outlasting Karen Khachanov 6-2, 7-6(5), 6-7(6), 6-7(7), 7-6(8) in an instant classic on Saturday night. He will have to recover quickly to face a well-rested Nadal, who has easily disposed of Hugo Dellien, Federico Delbonis, and Pablo Carreno Busta. The turnaround is too quick and the court is not quick enough for another Nadal-Kyrgios battle to live up to the hype.

Ricky Pick: Nadal in 3
Cheryl Pick: Nadal in 4

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(10) Gael Monfils vs. (5) Dominic Thiem

Not too much unlike Kyrgios (even though he does not come with the same kind of baggage), Monfils has the talent to win a Grand Slam but has not yet put it all together. The 10th-ranked Frenchman may never get over the hump given that he is 33 years old, but for now things have been so far so good in Melbourne this fortnight. Monfils is through to the fourth round following victories over Yen-Hsun Lu, Ivo Karlovic, and Ernests Gulbis.

Up next is sixth career meeting with Thiem, who is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0. They most recently faced each other last spring at Roland Garros, where the Austrian dominated 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. A hard court obviously gives Monfils a much better chance, but Thiem has improved bigtime on this surface over the past two years. The reigning Indian Wells champion recently finished runner-up at the Nitto ATP Finals and he booked his spot in the last 16 here by taking out Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt, and Taylor Fritz. Thiem’s level right now is too good for Monfils to suddenly erase his demons from this particular matchup.

Ricky Pick: Thiem in 4
Cheryl Pick: Thiem in 4

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128 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kyrgios, Thiem vs. Monfils

  1. Nadal is the #1 player in the world and playing too well not to be considered the favorite. But Kyrgios is playing differently in this tournament. I’m sure the bush-fires have motivated him, and gutting out that win against Khachanov was very out of character for him. If he stays focused this match will be close. When he is playing and (especially serving) well, NK simply has too much talent for Rafa to blow him away. If the crowd gets behind Kyrgios, who knows, he could pull off the upset. It would be nice, but I don’t think it will happen. Nadal in 5, maybe 4.

  2. Rafa vs Nole in final, with Nole winning his 17th slam in one week time. All the rest of matches are simply just for entertaining elimination. No men on earth would concur these top 2.

  3. I agree with Ricky- I expect a damp squib. Even if NK didn’t have an epic 5-setter, I’d pick Rafa. Clearly I was wrong about my original court-speed assessment. The new court and balls play slower, especially at night. I see NK starting slow, and throwing in the towel early when he realizes he doesn’t have it. I guess if he can have one of his ridiculous serving nights where he’s serving 135 mph bombs at like 85%, maybe he can at least keep the sets close. But I doubt that will be the case.

    Rafa is straight sets, MAYBE with one tiebreak.

    I also like Ricky’s pick for Thiem, except I think I’ll take it a step further and say Thiem in straights.

    I think that if anyone could potentially trouble Rafa before Novak, it would be Thiem. He has improved on hard court, especially if it’s a slower one like this, and he has proven he can push Rafa to the brink in best-of-five on slower hard court.

    • It’s still Medvedev who may give Rafa a stern test in SF imo; Meddy plays like a Djoko except without the great ROS of Djoko and his consistency.

      The worst kind of opponents for Rafa these days are those who drag him into a grinding war – Schwartzman, Djoko, Simon at times and now Meddy too.

      Rafa may show too much respect for his opponents sometimes, but the greatest fear he has is still facing Djoko across the net , esp on the HCs, I feel. It seems that Rafa is clueless now on how to beat Djoko on HCs, tried everything but still fail, could learn a thing or two from Stan on ‘how to beat Djoko at a slam, esp in a final’.

      • I actually picked Med to beat Rafa.I cant see NK doing it unless the crowd gets to him .Zverev-Rublev, 50/50 edging towards Rublev.
        Its one of those tournaments where anything seems possible.

  4. Nadal in 4. IMO, Kyrgios still doesn’t have the head to beat anyone of the big 3 at Slam(I doesn’t count Wimbledon 2014 against injury prone Rafa).I agree with Luckystar and even go further and say that I am sure Meda will beat Rafa at SF. Rublev will be tougher test for Meda than Rafa. Novak will beat Meda in final in 4 sets.
    Thiem – Monfils..I don’y have a clue..Thiem is so good on slow HC, but here he didn’t impress, and struggled too much. However, I still will go with him, in 5 sets. But than, in QF, Nadal will beat him easily.

    • what are you talking about? Rafa started picking up injuries in the summer USO hard-court swing of that year and was healthy up until that point of the season… kyrgios simply outplayed rafa in 2014 on grass, nothing to do with injuries.

        • In 2014 David Ferrer beat Nadal in Monte Carlo; Nicolas Almagro in Barcelona and Djokovic in the Rome final. Rafa lost to Brown just before Wimbledon. Prior to losing to Kyrgios, he lost a set in each of the first 3 rounds. He did not play for months after that and took a year and a half to fully recover from all he’s been through during 2014-2015. Yeah, Nick beat a really in-form Nadal at that Wimbledon…

  5. Nick should be mentally drained by now and I question his fitness as well, he doesn’t seem a player which takes training (or anything else) seriously enough. If he manages to serve the best he can, he may take a set. More pressure for him than outside Australia won’t help.

    Wimbledon last year was a significantly better chance for Kyrgios and what happened there? Sure, Rafa can have a really bad day and anything is possible then, but this does not seem very likely. The night session does not favor any of them.

    So, Rafa in 3 or 4 depending on each player’s day.

  6. Random thought I’m having-

    Novak Djokovic has apparently become close friends in recent years with Kobe Bryant. When Kobe visited the US Open last year, he repeatedly said “Novak is my guy.” And just the other day Novak wasnsaying in his press conference that he looked up to Kobe Bryant. I’m wondering what kind of an effect Kobe and his daughter’s sudden tragic deaths might have on Novak. If it has any effect on his game, it could either cause he to be distracted by grief, or it could inspire him more to win the whole thing. I know that different players are affected in different ways when they lose someone close to them. Just something I’ve been thinking about. So sad, though.

  7. Thiem played an absolutely rock-solid match. Definitely a contender to win this title if he plays like that. This half of the draw is just stacked with talent. Literally any of the remaining players could make the final and it wouldn’t surprise me too much.

  8. Kevin….I am thinking exactly like u!…We will know it tomorrow whether it will affect him or not…
    Play a huge server like Milos will not be easy even tho h2h clearly on novak.

  9. Rafa seems quite settled! First set in the bag. Hope he ups his intensity even and not let Nick back in the match!! Like what i’m seeing thus far!

    VAMOS Rafa!

  10. Nadal clearly better in that first set, but the difference was basically two dumb drop shots by NK when he was up 40-15 for the only break. Nick should do two things that are easily done, imo: first, stand back a bit on ROS to give yourself a bit more time. Second, skip the drop shots and hit out on the forehand. Kyrgios has a nuclear FH when he wants it, but he almost never lets it rip.

  11. Rafa should already had a break. That tweener Nick played, Rafa should have approached the net and just finished the point. Instead he stayed back waiting for the ball and ended up losing the point, sigh!

  12. NK playing solid tennis and feeding off the crowd, up 5-2. Nadal is playing well, imo; just had one loose game where Kyrgios broke. We’ll see if Nick can close out the set and even this up.

  13. I know why I feared this match..,.one lousy game, one hiccup and the set is gone…Nick is now pumped up and the match becomes tougher for Rafa.,,

    Vamos Champ!

    • It will stay close only if NK can maintain his focus and intensity. That’s a big if over an entire best of 5 match. But as long as he keeps serving well, I think he’ll keep his head in it.

  14. Rafa has himself to blame for not taking his chances in the first service game of Kyrgios in the second set; in addition to that he throws in a poor service game to lose the set.

    When Kyrgios is ahead in a set, its very difficult to break him to get back on serve, because he tends to serve very well to hold on to the lead.

    Now Rafa has to work very hard to win, as usual he always like to make hard work of everything and ‘enjoys the suffering’!

  15. Anyone who said this would be a damp squid of a match couldn’t have been more wrong! Let’s see if NK can take it to a tie break.

  16. Lucky for Rafa, he wins the third set TB, but as usual falters while serving for it with a SP. Luckily Kyrgios himself makes a DF too and then hit his shot into the net at SP to lose the TB and the third set.

    Rafa better buck up and plays well throughout the remaining of this match, unforgivable if he loses from here!

  17. Yeah, I knew this would be a nerve breaking match for Rafans! It is never a straight forward match when Rafa faces Nick! Rafa nearly gave me a heart attack in this tiebreak…Huh…it’s not over yet, Nick isn’t going anywhere…

    Vamos Rafa! Vamos Champ!!!

    • Heart attack alone!! My stomach was turning upside down along with everything else that goes with it! Being a Rafa fan nowadays is really not for the faint-hearted nor for those with less than a cast iron stomach!

    • Yes Thiem, and Thiem played only one hour and fifty minutes today to beat Monfils! Rafa has now played for three hours, hopefully Rafa can use his guile and everything to beat Thiem ASAP.

      • Well from what i understand Monfils may have been hampered so……

        But boy oh boy, the AO did manage to put every roadblock in Rafa’s way didn’t they?!

  18. Nick has come down in this third set but hasn’t given up, which is nice to see. Hard to imagine Rafa giving up the break advantage at this point, but stranger things have happened.

  19. Ok, Rafa should have been giving his on-court interview at the moment. He really let NK back into this. Imagine losing this set in a tie break now!!

  20. Congrats to Rafa on a great win. He played as everyone expected him to play, and he does it every point. He’s the best competitor tennis has ever seen, imo.

    As far as NK goes, this match again showed what kind of talent he has and what he could do if he only applied himself. Even in this match, had he stuck to his forehand, minimized the drop shots and the obviously dumb decisions, he might have won it. I’ve never seen a player who would benefit from a coach more, if only he would listen. Still, he delivered an incredibly entertaining match, so thanks, Nick!

    • Well said, Joe. For once, we agree on every point. 🙂 Be interesting to see where NK goes from here. Was this big effort a once-off or has he finally caught the tennis bug? If so he has Rafa to thank for showing him how it’s done!

  21. 64 winners to 27 UE for Rafa. That is 16 winners per set on average!

    NK had 50 winners to 43 UE’s.

    Rafa hugged the baseline and thrashed winner after winner! Rafa had some lapses (esp 5-4 ) but overall he played quite well. The match ends with the same scoreline they had at Wimbledon!

    NK showed great fighting spirit today.

    Now, another big challenge awaits Rafa. NOT looking forward to this one!

      • No but it will be a physical battle. Thiems’ got plenty of firework and he can make life tough for Rafa. I hope they play this during the day so we have favorable conditions for Rafa?

        Rafa is favourite but this will be a hard fought battle. They played a BRUTAL match at the USO couple of years ago and I know Thiem is dangerous on hard courts too.

        • Maybe played at night vr..as Rafa will get the showpiece match at night for tv..he is the star that half of the draw ..maybe rafa is used to night on rla..thiem is not yet..has he even played any night match yet

    • Im telling you! Before this AO is done, I’ll be done, lol!! And all this just for a spot on the finals?! Sigh!

      Rafa should really win this after all he’s put me through already!

  22. Luckily Rafa wins it in four sets! Thiem will be feeling happy that Rafa will have problems serving for sets or for the match!

    Thiem has the advantage over Rafa physically imo, as he’s younger and finished his match earlier and within shorter time. Rafa imo will have problem beating Thiem (and if he’s successful) beating Sasha in the SF (who hardly lost a set here). Even Stan is hard to beat as Stan is really a beast physically too.

      • I feel now that Rafa has gotten over Nick I think he will be more than ready for whats to come! And bedsides, I think the crowd will be on Rafa’s side this time, so a different atmosphere!!!!

        Theim may be younger and all the rest of it but ppl say the same every year at FO and then what happens?

        Theim is playing well but to me he is less a threat than Nick! And remember, no matter what, NO ONE really wants to play Rafa, lol! Though he is not at his lethal best……yet!

    • So very happy Rafa beat NK today!!!

      But I agree with you that Rafa’s path ahead is difficult at best. Thiem is playing great and obviously Stan is too. Then Djoker lurks…. Still, today is a very happy day and at least Rafa got it done in 4! Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow…

    • I do foresee a tough match with Dominik but nothing like this one! After Novak, Nick is the one Rafa fears the most due to his extreme talent and big serve! It’s easy to lose a set to Nick and if he is motivated he is very hard to deal with! Totally different match with Thiem! Moreover, Thiem has just split with his coach, it might affect him mentally, but I wouldn’t count on it!

      Rafa will be ready for Thiem! He won’t lose his serve when serving for the set when playing Dominik, I am almost sure of it!

      Rafa played very well today! Great match indeed! However, as I said before, with Nick Rafa has to be perfect without mental lapses to win in three, but that’s quite difficult to do.

      I must congratulate Nick on great game, but also on good on-court behavior. Big improvement in that department!

      Vamos Champ!

  23. Strange that Rafa had never won a tiebreaker against NK before wimby and has now won 4 in a row!
    Testimony to Rafa’s fighting spirit!😀

    • Hey, dear Amy! Congrats! You and I were just about the only people here feeling terrified of this match, and rightly so.,,but I think this will be a big relief and booster for our man!

      Vamos!

      • Hey Natashao!
        Well hon we are usually right about everything!😀😀
        I remember at the end of ’18 we both predicted Rafa would win multiple slams and get to #1 and a lot of people said no way!
        Kudos to us darling!

    • Rafa usually changes his playing shoes to “relaxing shoes” immediately after a match. I’m sure his feet bother him after hard matches but no idea if it will be a problem.

    • Mira…rafa thiem ? Thoughts ? Meddy gone ..good news ?

      Is zverev sneaking silently to cause big damage ? Match with stan could be cracker

        • Nah, Stan will fix him good, lol!! I think Stan came in this tourney not really feeling good about his chances but he looks quite dangerous to me. The only issue for him is his fitness wrt those 5-set matches! But he has taken a few scalps!! Let’s go Stan!!

    • Hey hey hey my amy & Sanju!!…What’s up boss??hehe….Oh my God!!….Rafa won!!…woooohoooo!!!…Sorry!..it’s a decade late to woooohooo’ed!…Thank God it’s not gone to 5th sets!….3 hrs 17 minutes is still ok i guess…if not,we can say goodbye to AO title!…

      Sanju…Rafa/Thiem??….RAFA OF COZ!!!….Insyaallah Rafa will win on this one too…I just hope he also will wrap this match not over 3 hrs..U have no idea how happy i am when Meddy was out Sanju & amy!…

      Make no mistake,if Rafa were to meet with Meddy,insyaallah Rafa will win again…BUT Meddy can grind all day long with Rafa & i don’t want that coz he still has to face Novak in the final…tho the prospect of facing Sascha is terrifying too bcoz of his young age,he also has the ability to drag Rafa for hrs!…but…QF first!

      Group hugs amy & Sanju & all Rafans!…woohoo!!

      • Are you so sure it’s novak in the final Mira .fed may have something to say on that

        I see today’s match in 2 ways..either it will give rafa the huge adrenaline rush n free him as it would have battle hardened him physically n mentally OR the amount of energy expended today will extract it’s pound of flesh in later matches..i hope it’s thd former..

        Thiem is dangerous…stan can be very dangerous too..zverev no one expected anything but i think he wants to prove a point..Medvedev going out is surely a relief to not have a long match if rafa reaches semi . I am surely not underestimating thiem. The qfs have been always an issue for rafa at ao in 10,11,15,18..so I’m holding my horses …

        • Hey back Sanju!…1st of all…like Kevin said,let’s c how Novak fare against Milos tomorrow…if Nny has shaken so much about Kobe’s death…the impact will be much more to Novak imo bcoz of their close friendship all these years…and Novak loved him too…

          2ndly…Yeah…i admit Fed may have something to say in semis…but i really think bcoz of his over 4hrs match against Millman the other day,the chance of him beating Nole is very slim/nil now…but that’s my opinion ok?I could be wrong…But if Millman can make Roger shaken like that..the prospect of facing Novak in bo5 really not good on Roger Sanju…he maybe can drag Novak to 4 or 5th sets…but to win over him?I’mmmm…..not so sure Sanju…

          Bout Rafa & QF thingy…don’t forget,he also reached finals plenty of times too!..and win it once…if Rafa is healthy,insyaallah he will reach final once again…i really believe he will…but that’s my prediction ok?I of coz could be wrong anytime!

          • Yes he has reached multiple finals Mira..but never back to back..and after every final he reached..next has been a qf exit except 2013 where he never played..that’s why me worried going by history and ofcourse a very tough opponent thiem

    • Hey mira! Group hug!
      I was so stressed about the match with Nick…so very thankful Rafa hung tough.Now we get to worry about Dom!…there is of course always the nagging thought that Dom will reprise his USO performance. The USO court is slower is that good/bad for Dom here??
      Very relieved right now as I really didn’t want him to lose to Nick..

  24. I am watching Rafa’s match now. I woke up at 3:30 am to see that Rafa won the first set and Kyrgios won the second set. Went back to sleep and then woke up and couldn’t wait and watch the match. So I fast forwarded through to the end. So relieved to see Rafa get the win!

    Watching this match with some great rallies and stellar tennis. Playing Kyrgios is always a challenge for Rafa. I normally would be very nervous for another matchup between Rafa and Kyrgios, but the news of Kobe Bryant’s death has shaken me to my core. Living in L. A. I became a huge Lakers fan. I thought it was a sick joke when I first heard the news. Then once I realized it was true, I broke down and could not stop crying, I loved him and enjoyed watching his brilliance. So that has kind of put things in perspective. A tennis match is not life and death. This has hit me hard and I am broken-hearted.

    But life goes on and so does tennis. I am glad that Rafa has found his game. He looks a lot better than he did in his first two matches. Still not at his very best, but good enough to beat Kyrgios. I am a bit concerned about this long battle. Thiem just blew Monfils off the court. That one has me worried. Thiem is getting better all the time. But beating Kyrgios has to help Rafa’s confidence. Kyrgios is one guy who can take out anyone when he plays his best.

    Rafa has a butt ugly draw. It will only get tougher from here in out. But Rafa seems to thrive on tough matches.

    Well done, Rafa! I can sit back and watch the rest of the match.

      • lucky,

        Thank you so much for your kind words. 🥰

        It means a lot. This one has hit me very hard. Loved what Rafa said online and in his post match on court interview about Kobe. I think I have it together and then I will see an interview with him or watch film of him playing and then I lose it all over again.

        Rafa’s win helped a great deal. Seeing him compete hard and play well against one of his toughest competitors, did lift my spirits.

        When I watched Rafa serving for the match and he was broken, I though of you! 😉

        Another blip from Rafa! It’s much harder watching it live than when you know the outcome. I would have been an absolute wreck watching it live! I read the comments here as people were watching the match. It gives a real sense of what the feelings were as the match went on.

        Thanks again for your kind words. 👍

      • amy,

        Oh I am going to lose it after reading your words! I am so happy about Rafa beating Kyrgios, but I still keep breaking down when I realize that Kobe is gone. Life is so precious. He had so much to live for, so much to do. I just kept thinking of all the great victories, his greatness and dedication to being the best. It was a privilege to watch him play. I just wish he could have had his second act.

        This is going to be one very stressful slam. One match at a time!

        Thanks for the lovely words. It helps a lot. 😘

  25. To Nny….sorry about Kobe…Life & death is a certainty…it will come whether we like it or not….

    U be strong ok?Chanel that sad feelings to Rafa Nny…and u’ll be happy in no time…Vamos Rafa!!

    • mira andi,

      Oh I was crying again and then I saw your comment. You made my tears go away! Thank you so much! Yes, I will channel my feelings to Rafa! He needs it with this ugly draw.

      It just makes you remember how precious life is.

      Thanks so much for your wonderful words!
      😍

      • Hey back Nny!…Hehe…u’ee welcome Nny!…U know,i have a friend who also love Rafa very much…5 years ago she lost her husband due to cancer…

        And she also has imsomnia…so she always sleeping late most nite…one day she told me that she felt very low & was haunted by sad memories of dear late hubby and she can’t asleep,can’t stop crying…she asked me what she should do to make that demon go away?

        I told her…”hey.bozzy!…u love Rafa so much right?..and u have some of his classic matches recorded in your tv right?I mean he’s got 17 slams(at that time)..choose whatever matches that u want to c…just sit back on your recliner & let Rafa do all his magic work on u bozzy!….hows that?”

        U know what Nny?From that day,everytime she felt ‘that moment’ visit her again,she just switched on her tv..and just enjoy Rafa & all his successes…and it worked everytime!…Ohohoho!!….AMAZING!!

        • mira andi,

          What great advice! I watched the replay of Rafa’s match after watching my recording of it. Then they showed it on the tennis channel. You know what? It made me feel so much better!

          I always love to see Rafa beat Kyrgios!

          You are a very smart lady!
          😘

          • Hehe…happy to help Nny!…It’s very fortunate that i can share my friend story with u!…

            All the best to u Nny!…Vamos!!

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