Australian Open final preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Zverev

Jannik Sinner
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Will the third time be the charm for Alexander Zverev?

If it is, it will have to come at the expense of world No. 1 and defending Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner.

Sinner and Zverev will battle for the first Grand Slam title of the 2025 season when they square off at Melbourne Park on Sunday. Zverev leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but that hardly tells a full story. All four of his victories came before Sinner’s rise to the top of the rankings began in the fall of 2023, and only one is more recent than the spring of 2022–a five-set victory in round four of the 2023 U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other last summer in Cincinnati, where Sinner survived a 7-6(9), 5-7, 7-6(4) thriller.

Infamously far and away the best current player on tour to have never won a major, Zverev is playing in a slam final for the third time in his career. The 27-year-old finished runner-up to Dominic Thiem at the 2020 U.S. Open and to Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 French Open, both in five sets.

Zverev has given himself another shot following victories this fortnight over Lucas Pouille, Pedro Martinez, Jake Fearnley, Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul, and Novak Djokovic. Humbert and Paul pushed the world No. 2 to four sets before Djokovic retired following a first-set tiebreaker (Zverev won it 7-5) in their semifinal showdown on Friday afternoon.


As usual, Sinner was mostly dominant en route to the title match. The 23-year-old beat Nicolas Jarry, Tristan Schoolkate, Marcos Giron, Holger Rune, Alex de Minaur, and Ben Shelton. Schoolkate and Rune each took a set, while Shelton had two set points on his own serve in the opener of their semifinal contest on Friday night. Sinner is a ridiculous 79-6 in his last 85 matches dating back to the start of last season.

The Italian is now one win away from a third consecutive hard-court slam title.

Zverev, on the other hand, just wants one on any surface.

“It would be nice to win one more set than the first two that I’ve played,” he joked. “Grand Slam finals are always difficult. The two best players in the world are playing on that court. I lost twice in in a fifth set, once in a fifth-set tiebreak at the U.S. Open. So I’ve had my tough losses. I feel like maybe it’s time for me to have some luck in a Grand Slam final.”

Zverev has came close in his previous Grand Slam final appearances, but Thiem was an opponent he should have defeated (especially from two sets up) and Alcaraz–although wildly talented–will give you plenty of cheap points. Sinner gives you nothing. And it is very likely that Zverev gets nothing in the way of sets on Sunday night.

Pick: Sinner in 3

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14 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Zverev

  1. Zverev in 4 or 5.
    It seems Sinner is not fit, his body could break down if it’s a long match. Plus it’s difficult to ignore the 4-2 H2H.

  2. At this point I really can’t tell but Sinner is playing some crisp tennis, although now in second set he seems to be hurting physically……….serving well!! But hope Zverev wins second set

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