The Australian Open concludes on Sunday, when Roger Federer and Marin Cilic battle at the very end for the second time in the last three Grand Slams. A five-team panel featuring Ricky Dimon, Joey Hanf, Steen Kirby, Pete Ziebron, and Mert Ertunga previews the action and makes its picks.
(5) Marin Cilic vs. (2) Roger Federer
Ricky: Cilic seems to be channeling his inner 2014 U.S. Open self during this fortnight Down Under. The difference is that the competition level has been lower…until now. A semifinal win over Rafael Nadal was impressive (Cilic probably would have won even without the retirement), but on a relatively fast hard court I saw that result coming from a mile away. The Croat has not faced anyone else of note (in fairness to Pablo Carreno Busta, he delivered an impressive fourth-round display in an extremely high-quality four-setter against Cilic). Now the competition level ratchets back up in the form of Federer, who is a dominant 8-1 in the head-to-head series (5-1 on hard courts). An in-form and well-rested Cilic will make this far more interesting than their 2017 Wimbledon final snooze-fest, but Federer will have too much experience and will put enough returns in play to eventually break Cilic down. Federer in 4: 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.
Joey: All things considered, this should be a pretty good final. While Federer goes in as a clear favorite, Cilic’s form and strong best-of-five record should make this one competitive if nothing else. I think it was also important for Cilic to get through Edmund in straights and get the additional day off, because he expended a lot of mental and physical energy in that quarterfinal against Nadal. While he looked shaky early in the event, Cilic has been building confidence and it never more evident than in his win over the world No. 1. While he has only one win over Federer, he has played him close at majors before–with a lone straight-set loss coming in the infamous ’17 Wimbledon final. It took the Croat a while to recover from that match, but I think he’s past it and ready to battle. The difference is that Federer has not shown much vulnerability whatsoever this fortnight, except perhaps against Marton Fucsovics of all people. Federer much prefers night matches, as it allows him to swing out on the ball, so that’s another big check in his favor. If Cilic wants to pull this off, I think he’ll need to serve like he did in Flushing Meadows in 2014, where he won 87 percent of his first-serve points against Federer. And while the court speed is medium-fast, I don’t think he can produce that in the slower night conditions. There’s too much variety, shotmaking, and experience on the other side of the net. Federer gets 20. Federer in 4: 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Steen: Federer has barely been on the court this tournament, and while Cilic has enough power to bother him and perhaps take a set, this is clearly Federer’s match to lose. He should remain an ageless champion. Federer in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Pete: Federer and Cilic have now appeared in two of the last three major finals; they will oppose each other six months after their less-than-memorable Wimbledon title match. Cilic can be expected to come out firing, eager to put his best foot forward this time and have a legitimate shot to win the second major of his career. This initial energy boost and enthusiasm will notch the first set for him. However, this little victory for Cilic–which will concurrently end Federer’s bid to win every set he has played at the Australian Open this year–will be his only moment of glory in the final. Federer quickly corrects course and looks more like the player who has swept his previous six matches. The vintage play of Federer in the next three sets secures his fifth Australian Open title and the 20th major of his storied career. Federer in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4.
Mert: The more Federer and Cilic play, the more it looks like Cilic’s dominant win over Federer at the 2014 U.S. Open was an exception–to say the least. Even in the one close call (Wimbledon 2016), Federer ended up defeating Cilic without playing near his best in my opinion. The performance of both players on first serves will be the determining factor. If it works to perfection for Federer–and coming from him it would not be a surprise to see his first serve working well in the final of a major–I could potentially see a straight-set win. But Cilic’s own huge serving could help him steal a set. Federer in 4: 6-7, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.
who ya got?
Fed in four as above.
Fed in 4 but would not be surprised to be in 3.
Unless Cilic serve is really on fire or some unforeseen circumstances, hard to see the old man not lifting his 20th slam.
If he gets this, from many perspectives he deserves the GOAT alias.
Cilic needs to copy the way David Goffin style of play in WTF to steal the chance, very accurate ball placement on the left and right corner.
Cilic in 4 (maybe 5)
Fed hasn’t been tested. Cilic has more to play for. Cilic had nightmares since the Wimbledon final, he’ll most likely play with nothing to lose and red-line.
Psychologically, Fed will be the hunted not the hunter in this match which will draw more unforced errors then we’ve seen so far.
Cilic already confronted a sterner test in Nadal which will prepare him for victory here.
Cilic is in that sweet spot age if 26-28 when players peak and is grand slam pedigree.
Looking at the ingredients, this is going to be one hell of a final.
When is Federer not the hunted? Pretty sure he was the hunted at Wimbledon. Didn’t drop a set there. Now he’s the hunted here. Hasn’t dropped a set to reach the final. I think Fed wins in three but even if it ends up a closer match than that, how would a betting man NOT bet on Roger? Cilic is one of the riskiest bets you could make, unless you’re only betting on him to win a set or something. Also the ingredients I’m seeing for this final are Fed’s good draw, his crushing of everyone he’s played (including Berdych), his hour long semifinal, and the fact that his on court interview with Will Ferrell almost lasted longer than some of his matches 😂
Cilic knows he can take Fed down on a fast hard court also.
Ask these factors suggest an upset is on the cards.
If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t be backing Fed in this one.
I want what you’re smoking bud
JC is similar to Oliver; always picks against Fed in a big match.
You can tell he doesn’t like him from the post-match interviews.
Thank God Jim Courier, that you are not a betting man as you would lose everything and be bankrupt! …because you are a FAKE Jim Courier, Isn’t it?!lol
“If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t be backing Fed in this one.” WoW!
What an amazing year it has been for Fed and his fans. It’s the reward of patience and persistence. For 4.5 years he never won a slam , kept coming short at slams , had bad 2013 n 2016 but he kept going , experimenting , innovating and see where he is now. It is nothing but reward of just keeping going at it n for his fans too, it’s reward of hope n patience to just keep supporting him. From lifting 3 slams ( I don’t see him not winning it tomorrow ) to hitting magic figure of 20 to reversing trend against Rafa, he has shown so much last 1 year (yes got a bit fortunate and lucky at times no doubt with draws opening up n key rivals injured) and taken full advantage of the situation .
Rafa has given his fans a lot too to be proud of last year and he has been awesomely successful too in his comeback but I still rate his comeback feat given that Roger will mostly win 20 a tad lower than Rogers. I hope Rafa gives us more to be happy about this year n schedules well but I frankly have no hope of him touching 20 slams. He will stay as no 2 in all time slam rally as per me.I don’t expect Novak to get close to Rafa either.
Thanks for saying that Ramara. I think it’s just a matter of opinion who has had a better comeback but in the end, what matters is we’ve gotten to see the resurgence of Fedal these last twelve months, something I never would have expected.
atleast get my name right Benny 🙂
Oh goodness!! 🙈 Sorry Sanju!!
Wasn’t my comment, so please thank Sanju.
I agree that Fed and Rafa both had amazing comebacks/resurgences. For me, it was “Welcome back Fedal! And may the best Fedal win!” 🙂
I really enjoyed the women’s match today. Hope the men’s match can be as good tomorrow but I rather think Fed will cruise and Cilic will fall short, as usual.
Great post Sanju and I agree with you 100%. I will be gutted if Cilic takes the title on Sunday after the tasteless way he celebrated his win before the injured Rafa had even hobbled off the court. Cilic will always have a black mark against his name as far as I am concerned after the gobbledy gook story he spun when he tested positive for PED.
Same here,no way I would be rooting for Cilic after the way he celebrated against a visibly injured opponent,showing no respect at all for Rafa. Hopefully Fed can bring tears to his eyes again in Wimbledon fashion like.
Same here, I am not only Fed but Fedal fan. But that is probably what it takes to win. Novak did the same, celebrating without respect. Against Fed he was super cocky from start to finish.
Weather mean to be very hot tomorrow. Will help Cilic if the roof is open and it’s that hot. Cilic in 4
Oliver, I think you’re helping Roger by always stubbornly picking against him. He just keeps winning when you do it!! 😂 😂
I’ve got Fed winning 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3.
Federer in three sets with one going to tie-break. Looking forward to Federer’s 20th Slam …. http://www.138mph.com/tennis-why-the-australian-open-final-between-federer-and-cilic-could-be-more-competitive-than-between-federer-vs-nadal-in-2018/
The truth is that all we can do is try to guess which version of Cilic will show up. If a top-notch form Cilic shows up to play, he can unquestionably win the title. However, there is just no way to know if that lights-out Cilic even CAN return one day… How do we know that that day in 2014 wasn’t a complete fluke? And at the same time, how does anyone know that Cilic won’t show up tomorrow and blow Fed off the court in 4 sets? I just am so skeptical of “predictions” these days. It’s strictly just guessing what you think might happen. And in some cases just saying what you WANT to happen.
Very true, Kevin! I also get the feeling that behind these guessing games or picking wars and rooting sessions there’s the subconscious hope to influence the outcome. So, we often say what we want to happen.
I just hope that the final won’t be a complete dud. I hope that one of them earns the trophy by a great performance. But Fed and Cilic normally don’t create very enticing matches between the two of them. So my hope aren’t high…
Cilic in 4, Olly is right the weather is meant to be warm and Cilic will be able to push Fed back in the court. He took a set off Federer at the WTF in Fed’s favourite conditions (indoors). He can (will) beat him
great idea to get 5 different opinions…fun to read. GOAT in 3.
Er, there were 5 different write ups but only one opinion: Fed in 4. I’m going with Fed in 3.
I think if Fed gets off to a good start, the momentum will be with him obviously and he could run away with it, well maybe not quite that but would be a comfortable win in four.
But, Im also prepared for Cilic playing lights out from the word go and if he takes the first set, could be a long match and harder to tell the outcome. I still think Fed will win in four or five.He just looks so relaxed out there.
Not far away with my analysis(and most other people’s)