Australian Open draw analysis: Nadal, Federer in loaded top half

Since the 2005 Australian Open, only five men have won a Grand Slam singles title. Four of them are in the top half of the 2014 Aussie Open draw. Rafael Nadal. Andy Murray. Juan Martin Del Potro. Roger Federer. Yes, all are in a positive loaded 64-man section of the bracket.

If the top half is Armageddon, Novak Djokovic’s trek through the bottom half may be little more than 12 days of sipping martinis in a tiki bar on the island of Fiji. In reality, of course, putting it that way is discrediting guys like David Ferrer, Stanislas Tomas Berdych, and Stanislas Wawrinka. But relatively speaking, it is the true, no?

Nadal’s quarter

Ask Bernard Tomic if this is a difficult section and he might say no. Ask anyone else and they may not even believe how rough it is. The truth, of course, is that Tomic—even though he would never admit it—has the worst draw of anyone other than Lukas Lacko (who faces Djokovic in the first round). The 21-year-old Australian, who has never lost in the first round Down Under and has reached at least the third round in his last three of five appearances, has to go up against Nadal in the first round.

While it’s terrible for Tomic, it’s not exactly the easiest of openers for Nadal, either. That seems to be the story of the world No. 1’s path from start to finish. He may have to battle Gael Monfils in the last 32 and Lleyton Hewitt to begin the second week of the tournament. Monfils finished runner-up to Nadal in Doha and Hewitt beat Federer in the Brisbane final. Del Potro, on a collision course with Nadal for the quarters, should cruise through his first three matches before running into either Milos Roanic or Grigor Dimitrov.

Best first-round matchup — (25) Gael Monfils vs. Ryan Harrison

Death, taxes, and bad Grand Slam draws for Ryan Harrison…. By Harrison’s standards, this one is actually decent. He faced Robin Soderling in round one of the 2011 French Open, Ferrer in round two of Wimbledon in 2011, Marin Cilic in round one of the 2011 U.S. Open, Murray in round one of the 2012 Australian Open, Djokovic in round two of Wimbledon in 2012, Del Potro in round two of the 2012 U.S. Open, Djokovic in round two of the 2013 Australian Open, and Nadal in round one of the 2013 U.S. Open. Monfils is by no means unbeatable, but the Frenchman is armed with a rare clean bill of health and he has been making the most of it. Ranked 26th, Monfils has climbed almost 100 spots since registering at No. 119 as recently as last May.

Best potential second-round matchup – (22) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Kei Nishikori vs. Lleyton Hewitt

Possible surprises – Hewitt reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam can never be considered shocking, but there is not much room for surprises in a section featuring both Nadal and Del Potro. Relatively speaking, any unseeded floater—Hewitt included—in the second week constitutes a surprise. His nearest seeds are Andreas Seppi (first round) and Nishikori (third round), so the 32-year-old Aussie will be a trendy pick to reach the last 16. As for Del Potro, he has been far from invincible at slams. The Argentine lost to Jeremy Chardy in the third round of this event last season and he also fell to Hewitt in the second round of the U.S. Open. As such, is this the time for Grigor Dimitrov—who has never made it past round three of a major—to reach a major quarterfinal?

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Murray’s quarter

You know something is up when Murray and Federer are in the same quarter of a Grand Slam draw and it’s not the talk of the town. The Nadal-Del Potro section is part of the reason, but the bottom line is that Murray and Federer are not in peak form. Murray is coming off back surgery that forced him out of the entire 2013 fall swing and he lost his second Doha match earlier this month to Florian Mayer. Federer endured well-documented struggles last summer, especially at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, and not even a much-improved fall could save his season.

Murray’s draw really isn’t too bad. The third-ranked Scot could not have asked for an easier first three rounds. Potential last 16 opponents John Isner and Philipp Kohlschreiber are dangerous, but Isner is clearly short of 100 percent due to an ankle injury and Kohlschreiber has advanced to a major quarterfinal only once in his career. Federer’s path appears to be more troublesome. Segiy Stakhovsky—who conquered the Swiss at Wimbledon—and Fernando Verdasco are possible third-round adversaries. Things should get especially tricky in the fourth round, where Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could await. Federer, who is 3-2 against Tsonga in Grand Slam matches, won a quarterfinal thriller Down Under 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3 last year.

Best first-round matchup — (18) Gilles Simon vs. Daniel Brands

This is not the Gilles Simon of yesteryear; the human backboard who played his way into multiple World Tour Finals appearances by refusing to miss balls. The 29-year-old Frenchman is still ranked 19th in the world, but his last four tournaments of 2013 were lackluster at best and he dropped his Brisbane opener to Marius Copil in straight sets. This should be a good opportunity for Brands, who registers six spots off his career-high ranking at No. 57 in the world. The 6’5’’ German qualified in Melbourne last season before advancing one round and losing to Tomic in an entertaining four-setter. This will be an intriguing contrast in styles between Simon’s consistency and Brands’ power.

Best potential second-round matchup – (31) Fernando Verdasco vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) John Isner vs. (21) Philipp Kohlschreiber

Possible surprises — On paper this is a tough quarter, but the relative vulnerability of Murray and Federer means doors are open. The question is if anyone other than Tsonga has a reasonable chance of capitalizing. Watch out for Kohlschreiber, who may have done himself a favor by losing to Isner in the Auckland quarterfinals (a three-setter without a single service break). That meant extra rest for Kohlschreiber and more wear and tear on Isner’s ankle. Also beware of Marin Cilic, who is unseeded as a result of his drug-related suspension. Cilic’s first two rounds are manageable and an upset of Tsonga in the last 32 is not entirely out of the question.

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Ferrer’s quarter

It’s the section nobody will talk about. However, pity the fool who completely writes it off. While only a few players—at most—in the other quarters have realistic chances of reaching the semifinals, this one is completely up for grabs. Ferrer, Berdych, Tommy Haas, Mikhail Youzhny, Jerzy Janowicz, and Alexandr Dolgopolov are all candidates.

Nobody in this entire field could like his draw more than fellow 30-somethings Haas and Youzhny. Both veterans are off to slow starts in 2014, but that may change in a hurry. Haas will be heavily-favored in every one of his first three matches, especially because nearest seed Kevin Anderson is in a dreadful slump. Similarly, Youzhny should be able to navigate through rounds one and two before facing an out-of-form seed in Janowicz, who is dealing with a foot injury and got blown out by Dolgopolov 6-2, 6-2 in Sydney. Ferrer has already been upset twice this season (by Brands in Doha and Yen-Hsun Lu in Auckland), but it would take another significant one for the Spaniard to bow out prior to the second week.

Best first-round matchup — (32) Ivan Dodig vs. Ivo Karlovic

One of the two previous encounters between Dodig and Karlovic came at the very same stage of this very same tournament in 2011. Dodig prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4. The much shorter of the two Croats (6’0’’ compared to 6’11’’) also beat Karlovic 7-5, 7-6(3) in a 2012 hard-court Challenger event and 7-6(2), 6-7(2), 6-3 last year in Zagreb. As the scorelines indicate, their head-to-head showdowns have been no exception to the rule that Karlovic matches are supposed to be extremely competitive. Another one should be in the cards, as Dodig is a clear favorite according to the rankings but nowhere near in peak form right now. Karlovic, meanwhile, surprised Berdych in Doha before succumbing to Dustin Brown 6-4 in the third.

Best potential second-round matchup – (29) Jeremy Chardy vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Mikhail Youzhny vs. (20) Jerzy Janowicz

Possible surprises — In their current states, Janowicz and Dolgopolov would be extremely bold second-week picks. But if you’re really sipping the underdog Kool-Aid in this section of the draw, how about Karlovic? Dodig is beatable, Karlovic would be favored in his second-round match, and Berdych has lost two in a row against the big man to make the Czech 2-4 lifetime in their head-to-head series. In the meantime, don’t sleep on Haas. He has struggled in recent months, but don’t be shocked if the draw helps the 35-year-old reach his first major semifinal since Wimbledon in 2009.

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Djokovic’s quarter

And the winner of the Best Draw Award goes to Novak Djokovic! Among the other seeds in the fourth and final quarter of the bracket are Richard Gasquet, Fabio Fognini, Tommy Robredo, Ernests Gulbis, Vasek Pospisil, and Dmitry Tursunov. If you think any of those guys are toppling Djokovic Down Under, think again. There is, however, some intrigue—and it comes in the form of No. 8 seed Stanislas Wawrinka. The 2013 Melbourne proceedings delivered arguably the match of the year in the form of Djokovic vs. Wawrinka in the fourth round (won by the Serb 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 after five hours and two minutes). Is the Swiss up for another challenge? He may have to be in order for anyone to remember that there is even a bottom half of the men’s singles bracket.

Speaking of rematches, another one between Wawrinka and Gasquet could be in the cards. Like Wawrinka, Gasquet was outstanding at the slam level last season, compiling a 13-4 record and making a memorable run to the U.S. Open semifinals. It could have been even better, but the Frenchman lost to Wawrinka 8-6 in the fifth set of a fourth-round Roland Garros thriller. Both men have extremely favorable draws this fortnight en route to an encore meeting in the last 16 of a major.

Best first-round matchup — Julien Benneteau vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

This is a borderline must-see match between two players at polar opposite ends of the career spectrum. Benneteau, 32, has competed at 41 Grand Slam events and has played in seven ATP finals (famously, he has failed to win a single one). Carreno Busta, 22, has fewer ATP match victories (seven) than Benneteau has runner-up finishes. The fast-rising Spaniard has appeared in only one major, which resulted in successful qualification at last season’s French Open prior to an opening-round setback against Federer. The surface will be a neutral one for Carreno Busta, who would prefer to contest this one on clay, and Benneteau, who would prefer grass. A competitive, entertaining baseline battle should be the result.

Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Richard Gasquet vs. Nikolay Davydenko
Best potential third-round matchup – (8) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. (28) Vasek Pospisil

Possible surprises — A true Cinderella run will be hard to come by in Djokovic’s quarter, but plenty of unseeded players who avoided close proximity to the world No. 2 should find themselves at least in the third round. Watch out for veteran Jarkko Nieminen, whose nearest seeds are Fognini and Gulbis. The latter two are mercurial performers, while Nieminen is a no-nonsense veteran who made a quarterfinal run in Melbourne in 2008 and upset Haas in five sets in last year’s first round. Also look for Nicolas Mahut, Denis Istomin, and the Benneteau-PCB winner to take advantage of friendly draws.

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