Australian Open draw analysis: Federer-Murray quarter, Fedal semi

This is, quite simply, a stellar draw—and not just for Rafael Nadal. First off, it sets up the potential for the two semifinal matches that any unbiased tennis fan wants to see: Nadal vs. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic vs. Stan Wawrinka. Additionally, the most dangerous unseeded floaters avoided early-round meetings with the top players in the world. That is, of course, good news for both parties.

While Nadal debatably drew the most favorable path through the Australian Open among the top four seeds, his draw is not entirely unlike that of the others: it won’t be a cakewalk, but it’s also far from impossible.

No bracket is ever going to be balanced, but this one comes close. Let’s take a look:

Djokovic’s quarter

The second week of the tournament—assuming there is a second week for the world No. 1—could be a bumpy ride in Djokovic’s case. Prior to a possible semifinal rematch against Wawrinka, he may have to fight off arguably two of the three biggest servers in tennis: John Isner in the fourth round and Milos Raonic in the quarters. The good news for Djokovic, however, is that he should be able to sleepwalk through the first week and keep plenty of reserves in the tank. Fernando Verdasco fans may disagree, but it’s true.

As the top-seeded Serb coasts through his section, week-one intrigue can be found elsewhere in this quarter. Former top 15 players Juan Martin Del Potro and Jerzy Janowicz are unseeded and have to go head-to-head in the first round. Lleyton Hewitt, who has also plummeted into the realm of the unseeded at 33 years old, may be able to capitalize on a favorable draw that could pit him against Julien Benneteau in round two. And don’t overlook the Ernests Gulbis Bowl between Dominic Thiem (Gulbis’ best friend) and Roberto Bautista Agut (Gulbis’ worst enemy).

Best first-round matchup — (PR) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Jerzy Janowicz

As the marquee unseeded name in the field, Del Potro avoided having to face a highly-seeded opponent in the first round. But he still found himself in perhaps the most anticipated of the 64 opening matches. Get your popcorn ready for a showdown that should feature a little bit of everything: huge serving, mammoth forehands, error-induced facepalms, and plenty of emotion. Both men are coming off decent 2015 debuts. Janowicz went 2-2 at the Hopman Cup while helping Poland capture the title; Del Potro advanced to the Sydney quarterfinals in his comeback from a 10-month layoff.

Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Julien Benneteau vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (19) John Isner

Possible surprises – There are two obvious opportunities for unseeded entrants to go a long, long way in this quarter. Gael Monfils is a major question mark (what’s new?) and Feliciano Lopez lost his Chennai opener to Aljaz Bedene. Don’t look now, but Del Potro is in their 16th of the draw. Either the Del Potro-Janowicz winner or Auckland finalist Adrian Mannarino may be able to capitalize. The situation is the same for the Bautista Agut-Isner section. If those two seeds leave the door open, and Isner is generally a borderline disaster Down Under, Thiem or Gilles Muller could walk through it.

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Wawrinka’s quarter

At least in terms of depth, this is the weakest quarter of the draw. The five lowest seeds are shockingly uninspiring. Alexandro Dolgopolov may not even be able to play, Gilles Simon also has knee troubles and should suit up but is not likely to be 100 percent, Fabio Fognini has reverted back to his disinterested ways, and the two who have no physical or mental ailments—Pablo Cuevas and Santiago Giraldo—do not pose a threat on hard courts. Additionally, the unseeded contingent features no more than two particularly dangerous obstacles in Steve Johnson and Vasek Pospisil.

The section is saved, though, by its three protagonists—all of whom played in the 2014 World Tour Finals (David Ferrer subbed in for one match as an alternate). Kei Nishikori may have to get through two of them, Ferrer and Stan Wawrinka, just to reach the semis. The Japanese star also has to open against former top 10 performer Nicolas Almagro (but that should not be a problem with Almagro just now coming back from injury). Wawrinka, meanwhile, can probably put things in cruise control before the defending champ potentially goes up against the Nishikori-Ferrer winner in the quarters.

Best first-round matchup — Sam Querrey vs. Vasek Pospisil

The only previous meeting between Querrey and Pospisil also came in the first round of a Grand Slam. A relatively competitive match at Wimbledon in 2012 went in Querrey’s favor 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4. Fast forward almost three years and Pospisil has emerged as an established force on tour. The 2014 Wimbledon doubles champion struggled early last season due to injury, but he picked up momentum during the summer. Although the Canadian fell in the Sydney second round to Benneteau, het got in plenty of successful match practice by compiling a perfect 3-0 record at the Hopman Cup.

Best potential second-round matchup – None
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) David Ferrer vs. (18) Gilles Simon

Possible surprises — There really is not much potential for anyone under the radar to make serious noise in this section at Melbourne Park. This quarter should be about nothing more than Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Ferrer. The one wide-open 16th of the bracket is where the two seeds are Fognini and Dolgopolov. Nothing can be more wide-open than that. And that means the Querrey-Pospisil victor has a great chance of making it to the second week before facing the fourth-ranked Swiss.

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Nadal’s quarter

Federer’s section is the one Nadal would have hated more than an afternoon at a dog park, but the 2009 Australian Open champion won’t have to face too many big hitters in this quarter. Although Nadal has a possible third-round date with none other than Lukas Rosol, the Czech is not as dangerous on this particular surface as he is on grass. The Spaniard has lost four times to his first-round opponent, Mikhail Youzhny, but the Russian is a shadow of his former self. Youzhny, who has succumbed to Nadal on 11 occasions, has not won a head-to-head meeting since 2008.

Another Tomas Berdych vs. Kevin Anderson match is—thankfully—not expected to happen since Anderson would probably have to get past Nadal in the fourth round. Berdych, on the other hand, is the favorite to reach the quarters from the other side of this section. The Czech’s biggest danger could come in the form of unseeded threats. In addition to a first-round contest between Viktor Troicki and Jiri Vesely, Bernard Tomic is also nearby.

Best first-round matchup — Jiri Vesely vs. Viktor Troicki

Vesely vs.Troicki at the very start of this season would have been hovering somewhere between marginally interesting and entirely irrelevant. Then this week happened. Both men qualified for their respective main draws (Vesely in Auckland, Troicki in Sydney) and have made runs all the way to the finals. Vesely upset Gulbis and Anderson along the way. Troicki’s incredible comeback from a one-year suspension started with a No. 847 ranking and he will be up to at least 66th in the world on Sunday. Not surprisingly, this is the first-ever encounter between the Czech and Serb.

Best potential second-round matchup – (22) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Bernard Tomic
Best potential third-round matchup – (3) Rafael Nadal vs. (28) Lukas Rosol

Possible surprises — We already know one surprise: Blaz Kavcic and James Duckworth have to face each other again. This isn’t quite an Isner vs. Nicolas Mahut rematch one year after their Wimbledon marathon, but it’s still pretty wild. In the 2013 Australian Open second round, Kavcic outlasted Duckworth 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(3), 10-8 in a four-hour, 52-minute war in brutally hot conditions. As for lower-ranked players who could make a deep run in Nadal’s section, don’t sleep on Tomic. The local hope has a history of success at multiple Australian-based tournaments and his nearest seeds this fortnight are Gulbis and Philipp Kohlschreiber.

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Federer’s quarter

This looks like the giant-killer section. Tommy Robredo upset Federer at the 2013 U.S. Open, Jeremy Chardy beat Federer last spring, Dustin Brown ousted Nadal from Halle last summer, Borna Coric and Martin Klizan took advantage of Nadal’s fall struggles, Nick Kyrgios memorably bounced the Spaniard out of Wimbledon, and Ivo Karlovic just recently took down Djokovic in Doha.

With Nadal and Djokovic elsewhere in the draw, it is Federer, Andy Murray, and Grigor Dimitrov who may have to deal with the aforementioned competition. As those three names indicate, this quarter is not only deep but also top-heavy. Murray is a three-time runner-up in Melbourne and Dimitrov seems to be on the brink of a Grand Slam breakout after reaching the Wimbledon semifinals in 2014. The Scot and Bulgarian are on a collision course for the fourth round, while Federer could face Karlovic in the last 16.

Best first-round matchup — Andreas Seppi vs. Denis Istomin

What? It’s a fair question, as Seppi and Istomin are not exactly the most charismatic of players. Nor does the winner have significant potential to parlay it into a deep run Down Under. Take a gander at their head-to-head history, however, and you will see why this matchup is awesome. Seppi and Istomin have faced each other four times at Grand Slams, a quartet of meetings that came in the span of five majors. That is unbelievable in itself, but get this: all four went to five sets. They split those showdowns at two wins apiece. A proverbial rubber match is undoubtedly destined to go another five, right?

Best potential second-round matchup – (23) Ivo Karlovic vs. Nick Kyrgios
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (20) David Goffin

Possible surprises — Federer and Murray should breeze into the fourth round. The same cannot be said for Dimitrov. A third-round collision with David Goffin is likely, and it’s something we’ve seen before—at the most recent major, in fact. The world No. 11 ended up taking care of Goffin in four sets, but not before the Belgian briefly took the match completely out of Dimitrov’s hands and served up a first-set bagel. With more experience now, might Goffin be ready to finish the job? As for the Robredo-Karlovic section, Robredo’s health is uncertain at best and just about any match involving Karlovic can always go either way. Mikhail Kukushkin is looming near those two veterans and he is coming off a final in Sydney.

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