Every single time a Grand Slam draw is revealed (I mean EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.), you can visit ESPN.com, Tennis.com, or atptennis.com and you will see some kind of headline like “Federer handed brutal draw” or “Federer’s road to title a daunting task.”
And just about every time those headlines could not be further from the truth…. Until now. This is not an opinion; this is a fact: Roger Federer has by far the toughest draw of the top four seeds at this year’s Australian Open. It’s not merely that Federer is in the same half as Andy Murray, but his own quarter includes Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic, and Tommy Haas.
The best is undoubtedly saved for last when it comes to the 2013 Aussie Open bracket, but it remains necessary to dissect the whole entire thing.
Djokovic’s quarter
When Tomas Berdych is the biggest threat between you and a Grand Slam final, you know you’re in good shape. That being said, Novak Djokovic would rather face anyone but Berdych in the quarterfinals. Although the top-ranked Serb may have to do just that, the rest of his draw is outstanding. Paul-Henri Mathieu is not the easiest of first-round opponents, but Djokovic should be untroubled the entire way to the quarterfinals. Neither Stanislas Wawrinka nor Sam Querrey appears to be in the kind of form necessary to give Djokovic a decent test.
Finding himself in a section with Berdych may not be ideal for Djokovic, but it’s a lot worse for the world No. 6 than it is for the world No. 1! Nonetheless, the fifth-seeded Czech has a squeaky-clan road to the quarters. The three seeds in his eighth of the bracket—Juan Monaco, Fernando Verdasco, and Jurgen Melzer—are all struggling. It would not be wrong to go right ahead and pencil in a blockbuster Djokovic-Berdych quarterfinal showdown. The question is: will either one even lose a set en route?
Best first-round matchup — (22) Fernando Verdasco vs. David Goffin
Since surging into prominence with a fourth-round finish at the French Open and a third-round showing at Wimbledon, slam draws have not been particularly generous to Goffin. The 22-year-old faced Berdych right off the bat in New York and now he has to go up against Verdasco in round one. Of course, this proposition is a far more manageable one for the underdog. Verdasco did not play particularly well at the Hopman Cup and he fell in easy straight sets to Denis Istomin in the Sydney second round this week. Meanwhile, is a “sophomore slump” in the cards for Goffin? He salvaged only a single win during his Brisbane and Sydney campaigns. There could be some inconsistent play in this showdown, but the shot-making should be of the highest order and it will likely last for a full five sets.
Best potential second-round matchup – (11) Juan Monaco vs. Kevin Anderson
Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. (20) Sam Querrey
Possible surprises —If you break this quarter down into four parts, two are completely wide open. The beneficiaries could be two of last summer’s most surprising stars: Goffin and the oft-injured Brian Baker. After years and years of myriad surgeries, Baker made it all the way to the Wimbledon fourth round. The American’s nearest seeds are Querrey and Wawrinka, so nothing is impossible for him until Djokovic. As for the Goffin-Verdasco winner, he could go just as far Down Under. Don’t be shocked if Berdych’s fourth round opponent is unseeded—either Goffin, Xavier Malisse, or Kevin Anderson.
Ferrer’s quarter
David Ferrer was virtually assured of a favorable draw the moment Rafael Nadal withdrew. It guaranteed that he would have his own quarter and would not have to face Djokovic, Federer, or Murray until the semis. Things got even better for Ferrer when the draw was revealed on Friday. He is a section with unquestionably the weakest of the 5-8 seeds, Janko Tipsarevic (they also landed in the same quarter at last summer’s U.S. Open and their ensuing quarterfinal resulted in an epic, won by Ferrer in a fifth-set tiebreaker).
Of the two, Tipsarevic has a much tougher path to set up a possible rematch. The eighth-seeded Serb has to open against Australian veteran Lleyton Hewitt, who is no stranger to success at this event—not even in the latter stages of his career. From there, Tipsarevic could face Gilles Muller, either Julien Benneteau or Grigor Dimitrov (both in fine form), and then Nicolas Almagro. For Ferrer, this is basically a dream draw. The only potential blemish is a likely third-rounder against 2006 runner-up Marcos Baghdatis.
Best first-round matchup — (8) Janko Tipsarevic vs. Lleyton Hewitt
These guys have been a part of Australian Open classics before, and another one would not come as a big surprise. If you use the word “epic” stringently, Hewitt has played three such matches in Melbourne; if you throw the term around carelessly in common vernacular, Hewitt has played at least five such matches in Melbourne and probably more like 10. Tipsarevic, meanwhile, lost to Federer 10-8 in the fifth back in 2008 during a legendary 36-hour stretch of tennis that also saw Hewitt finish off Baghdatis at 4:34 in the morning. The 31-year-old Aussie leads this head-to-head series 3-1, but they have not met since 2009. At this point, a huge edge on paper—and on the fuel left in the tank meter—goes to Tipsarevic. Hewitt, though, isn’t done quite yet and he is never one to go down without a massive, memorable fight.
Best potential second-round matchup – (24) Jerzy Janowicz vs. Somdev Devvarman
Best potential third-round matchup – (4) David Ferrer vs. (28) Marcos Baghdatis
Possible surprises — When was the last time wishing to be placed in David Ferrer’s section of the draw worked out well for anyone? Answer: never. It certainly didn’t work out well for anyone at the U.S. Open or in Paris. And it won’t at the 2013 Australian Open. Baghdatis is the only one who has even a marginal shot at ousting the No. 4 seed prior to the quarters, but that would require a Texas-sized upset. A surprise is far more likely to take place in Tipsarevic’s half of this section. Nicolas Almagro just barely fell one step short of the quarters at last year’s event (in the form of an infamous loss to Berdych) and he could go one step further this time. I’m not going to lie: Almagro has one of the best Grand Slam draws I have ever seen for a No. 10 seed.
Murray’s quarter
Murray’s draw is the wild card of the lot. It definitely isn’t good; but is it terrible, or merely mediocre? Up first for the third-ranked Scot is Robin Haase, against whom nothing has been routine. Haase won their first meeting and blew a two-set lead in the next one; a 6-7(5), 2-6, 6-2, 6-0, 6-4 victory for Murray at the 2011 U.S. Open. Alexandr Dolgopolov looms as a potential fourth-round adversary for Murray. The Ukrainian sometimes does not even both to show up, but at other times he can match anyone shot for shot. Dolgopolov was a 2011 Australian Open quarterfinalist (lost to Murray in four entertaining sets).
Don’t make any ifs, ands, or buts about it: Murray would have preferred Tipsarevic, Tsonga, and maybe even Berdych as opposed to Del Potro. His 5-1 record in the head-to-head series belies the truth; they have not faced each other since 2009 and never once has Murray defeated the Argentine in straight sets. Assuming Murray makes the quarters, this “rivalry” is going to be renewed. Del Potro has an ideal draw up to that point and he simply is not going to lose before the last eight.
Best first-round matchup — (18) Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Gael Monfils
Speaking of wild cards, absolutely anything—and everything—could happen in Dolgopolov vs. Monfils. You never what either one will bring to the table on any given day, especially not right now. Dolgopolov underwhelmed in 2012 and he lost to Kei Nishikori in straight sets in the Brisbane quarterfinals. Monfils played relatively well in Doha and Auckland, but injuries continue to be a problem. If the stars align and both men bring their best to the occasion, this will be the best—and most fun—match of the entire first round.
Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Gilles Simon vs. Tommy Robredo
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Marin Cilic vs. (21) Andreas Seppi
Possible surprises — This quarter is begging for two unseeded players (in the sections apart from those of Murray and Del Potro) to make runs to the fourth round. The contenders to do so are Denis Istomin, Tommy Robredo, and Yen-Hsun Lu. Istomin has been in solid form and his nearest seeds are Andreas Seppi and Marin Cilic…. Beatable. For Robredo and YHL, their nearest seeds are Dolgopolov and Gilles Simon—both considerable question marks. Robredo isn’t the Robredo of old, but his current state is much better than the human disappearing act that was (more like “wasn’t”) on display in 2012. Lu, a former Wimbledon quarterfinalist, played an outstanding match against Ferrer earlier this week in Auckland.
Federer’s quarter
This was supposed to be Murray’s quarter, no? He’s the one member of the Big 4 who also seems to be treading shark-infested waters at major tournaments. This time around, however, that burden belongs to none other than Roger Federer. In addition to Tsonga, Gasquet, Raonic, and Haas, the section also boasts Philipp Kohlschreiber, Bernard Tomic, and Nikolay Davyenko (and, for those who still care to recall the events of last summer, Lukas Rosol).
Word for word, ESPN’s programming pitch for its tournament coverage should read as Federer’s projected path to the semis: Benoit Paire in round one (every point of that one is must-see television), Davydenko in round two, Tomic in round three, Raonic in round four, and Tsonga, Gasquet, or Haas in the quarters.
Best first-round matchup — (19) Tommy Haas vs. Jarkko Nieminen
This matchup is four years away from being eligible for the Champions Tour, but for now, it is one of the most enticing encounters of the Australian Open first round. Haas, 34, remained injury free last season and compiled a 31-16 record. Nieminen is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Sydney, where he ultimately fell to Tomic in three competitive sets. Don’t be fooled by Haas’ 3-0 lead in the head-to-head series; all three meetings have been competitive; the last was a 7-6(9), 6-4 victory for Haas at the 2012 Indian Wells Masters.
Best potential second-round matchup – (27) Martin Klizan vs. Bernard Tomic
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Milos Raonic vs. (17) Philipp Kohlschreiber
Possible surprises — There has been and will continue to be plenty of talk about Federer’s tough draw, but the bottom line is this: he isn’t losing anytime soon. He isn’t losing to Paire. He isn’t losing to Davydenko. He isn’t losing to Tomic. He probably isn’t losing to Raonic and he probably isn’t losing to Tsonga. Don’t expect anything out of the ordinary to take place in this quarter; the seeds are too good and the unseeded contingent is not good enough. If a big name goes down early, it will be Tsonga; either to Michael Llodra right at the start or to Haas in the fourth round.
Leave a Reply